Member Info for chilting

Missed the news last night but topped up this morning.

Ocado clearly have a use for the extra cash so today's cash raise has to be excellent news for all long term shareholders.

It all comes down to a simple judgement call and anyone can make the call.

Will OPEC+ extend their cuts beyond the end of July?

OPEC+ now hold all the cards - they have their knee of US shales neck and North Sea Oils neck - will they release it?

Maybe shorts getting ready to cash out - a big movement up towards close would confirm that.

A very successful result - now Whitbread can go ahead and buy a good selection of German hotels in a post Covid-19 buyers market - now that is a very good way of turning a negative into a positive.

Not much more than the skin on the directors little fingers left now.

That's a negative what ever way you look at it.

NO is on her way to Scapa Flo brimming with Kraken crude - 13m draught - probably about 500k - that means AK is running at about 50k per day at the moment.

It looks like all markets have taken a bit of a reality check this morning - a case of a little bit too much, too soon.

e121
I agree that short term trends cannot be predicted but broader predictions like in this case - for the rest of the year - are much easier to make - so I would go with HSBC on this - $39 average for Brent for the rest of the year looks about right taking into account the fact that OPEC+ is unlikely to extend cuts beyond the end of July.

HSBC are talking about an average of $39 for Brent for the rest of 2020 - up from their previous estimate of $37 because of the OPEC+ cuts. So that sort of lines up with the fall Goldman are predicting and indicates that the current price is close to the top of the range for the rest of the year.
Although this isn't particularly good news it may well stop US shale from bouncing back.

We have a hook -up - I missed the exact time but in must have been around an hour ago judging by the past track.

Most investors seem to take it for granted that everything in the garden is rosy - hence the purple patch with the SP.

Now we have a dose of reality and a bit of a shakeout, so yes 200-250p would seem logical but it may not get that low because sentiment won't get dented that much - buyers will come back in at maybe around 260p

Actually more of a thud than a drift - only fools have stop losses.

We seem to be picking up some of the flack from ITM - I guess Ceres is also over brought at the moment - maybe the SP will drift down closer to 500 for a week or two?

The simple fact is that this stock has been over brought.
Today's update - although reasonably good - has simply underlined that fact.
The best thing to do now is to simply hold - if you are still invested - or wait until the SP stabilises before you get back in.
This is a great company with an excellent future and as is often the case when to many investors realise the potential the SP rises to quickly and has to adjust.

Any analysis that is based just on risk and ignores all the positives is likely to be flawed.

I guess that all the broker analysts are set solid guidelines regarding risk - so their whole analysis is simply skewed by the guidelines and has no relation to the real world situation.

After overshooting Kraken to the north NO is now to the south of AK and looks like she is getting into place to approach for a hook up.
NO is due for a STS at Scapa Flo for a STS but no ETA is fixed, so we will have to wait and observe.
Today is 10 days since the last tanker left - weather is set fine.

This is just a little taster -

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4DKrcpa8Z_E

Yes, don't underestimate the publicity and feel good factor that will be generated in September when the deal with Ocado becomes active.

The rise in sentiment could push the SP much higher than even the most optimistic amongst us anticipate - maybe even into over brought territory.

Its increased volume that pushes up the SP - this is just the start.

Its the massive potential that has pushed the SP into over brought territory - hence this mornings drop and the volatility during the last few months.

A period of objective reflection is needed now while the actual potential catches up in the real world rather than just in sentiment.

Typical reaction when in over brought territory but bounced back nicely - so far.

Very few negatives in the update so SP will probably move up again from here but maybe settle below 3.50 for a while.