Member Info for chilting

Tom
I agree that we won't need another lockdown but until the R number is well below 1 their needs to be safeguards in place, otherwise infections will start to increase again - this seems to be happening in the southern US states.
The UK is starting to fall well below 1 now, so it looks like we should see a relaxation of the distancing rule and restaurants open in early July.
It does seem to me that lockdown is fully justified when looking at the consequences of not following that route - the situation in Brazil is dire even with a couple of weeks to go before the anticipated peak.

The main reason for the lack of slots during the lockdown was the increase in the order size - some delivery rounds could only accommodate about 10 deliveries when the normal average is over 20 [from memory]. Customers were panicking and ordering much more than they needed because they didn't know when they would get another slot.

My guess is that if Ocado were faced with a similar situation in the future that they would limit customer order size by value and also cut out bulky goods where possible. Riverford followed this route by slashing their product offering and reverting to core products, it seems to have worked well for them. They have more or less kept their weekly deliveries going for their whole customer base, including the customers who normally only order at Christmas.

NO is currently 18.3 nautical miles south west of AK - no sign of a hook-up yet.

The truth of it is romaron is that TLW, HUR and PMO are highly prone to ****ups - it is these ****ups that create the volatility and draw in the day traders.

Another interesting theory for economic recovery - instead of the widely accepted V shaped recovery - is a shark tooth recovery.
This involves a whole series of volatile peaks and troughs following one another.
It would certainly make investing interesting - especially for the day traders - but the main result from a crude point of view would probably be to discourage investment - making a supply crisis for oil even more probable.

NO is close by but no sign of a hook up - she is to the east - hook-up at the moment would need to be from the south west.

No hurry though - today is only 10 days since the last tanker left.

On the same theme - this just has to make everyone smile!

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/06/18/investing/oil-price-spike-jpmorgan/index.html

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K1FIlCufPa8

Whitbread is still in limbo - waiting on a Government decision to reduce the social distancing rule to 1m and a decision to open pubs and restaurants on the 4th July - until that happens the SP will tread water - a great time to invest before the crowd.

Following the logic of Moody's report maybe Enquest should be hedging now with Brent over $40 especially as the market is signalling that this might be the top in the short term???

It seems that the local population and the environment are paying a high price for years of oil production and poor environmental controls in the US.
Yet another reason why Biden may be reluctant to give shale his full support if he wins in November.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-usa-drilling-abandoned-specialreport/special-report-millions-of-abandoned-oil-wells-are-leaking-methane-a-climate-menace-idUKKBN23N1QJ?il=0

If Brent does stay low for an extended period into 2021 - which seems more unlikely when we get into 2021 - there are always going to be peaks - as we have seen in the last few weeks - it is absolutely imperative that Enquest get their act together and hedge on the peaks.

NO is slowly making her way towards Kraken and is due on Friday Afternoon - thank you Therapist.
Friday will be 10 days since the last tanker left.
The weather is flat calm.

Logical and predictable - all down to Brent.

With regard to compliance one problem area must be Russian oil exports to China.
There are various pipelines that run across the border from Russia to China - the actual amount of oil that flows through them is probably completely unknown outside official circles in the two countries.

Excellent news - RWC Asset Management have an 5.38% holding in M&S - they invest long term for their clients - another vote of confidence!

Most investors are now simply waiting patiently.
The few days when the SP takes off are simply when a few buys build up in a very thin market then the SP falls again with the volume.
Waiting in the side-lines isn't an option here because with good news - especially re funding - the SP will take off instantly and it will be very difficult to buy - think volcano!

Shorts on Short Tracker are now showing as zero - the recent share issue has presumably given them a chance to cash out.
It will be interesting to see the total on Euroclear at the end of June - it was 10.5% at the end of May.

https://shorttracker.co.uk/company/GB00B3MBS747/

The next significant date is the AGM on the 3rd July - maybe we will get an update on trading since opening this week.

Tar oil in Canada could follow the same fate with Biden stopping US use.