Member Info for chilting

Valueplay you are looking at everything in black and white - online white - bricks and mortar black.
The retail market will never develop that way - M&S are closing unprofitable locations and in many cases opening new modern stores with a bias for food.
To have assets in online and bricks and mortar is the way forward for British retail - the market isn't black and white - its grey and it always has been. .

Day to day movements mean nothing - especially with the shorts manipulating the SP in a thin summer market.
Its the long term that interests me.

I find it amazing that the perception that most people still have of M&S is grounded in the 20th century.

In actual fact they are moving way ahead of the opposition regarding new retail concepts and when these concepts start to show up in the bottom line the market will react in a very positive way.

This is yet another example of the private investor being way ahead of the professionals simply by observation of real world events.

Navion Oslo is due at Scapa Flo on Sunday at about midday so if all goes to plan hook-up is likely early on Saturday or maybe even late on Friday.
She will probably leave Aberdeen early tomorrow.
Saturday would be 11 days since the last tanker left.

Spare a thought for long term Hurricane holders - it looks like they have a very difficult decision to make.

Yes, amazing when you take into account that there was a capital raise in June.

The real question is what happens when OPEC+ reach the position where they have sufficient control over the crude market to start dictating the price of oil.
Sure, they can do that now but not really to their advantage because supply is still too high, but as other players drop out it will become a suppliers market and at that point they can start to turn the screws.

I guess that explains the SP movement today.

Aug 4 2020, 11:20 13.66 2,000,000 13.52 13.66 Buy £273,200.00 O

Excellent prospects now with the Bressay field in effect being an extension to the Kraken field - so we could see up to 50k per day over an extended period of years - that totally changes the dynamics for Enquest.
Short term keep an eye of OPEC+ - greed seems to be ruling - especially with the Russians - they are increasing production too quickly, so we could quickly see oversupply rapidly increasing again.

Excellent prospects now with the Bressay field in effect being an extension to the Kraken field - so we could see up to 50k per da

Short term could fall to around £3.50 - long term no effect at all - just take advantage of the buying opportunity.
We also have an excellent buying opportunity at this level.

One positive is that the Chinese economy looks set for a V shaped recovery after manufacturing output increased more than expected - that should be good news for crude demand.
Good news from Oxford Nanapore for rapid Corvid-19 and flu testing - especially for care homes.
Unfortunately everything else seems to be negative with the US failure to curb Covid-19 and trade war worries top of the list. Also BP look likely to slash their dividend in the face of a £5.2 billion loss.

My guess is that the idea will be to maximise production from AK so that as crude production reduces from the Kraken field it can be balanced by Breesay crude. Therefore, this has to be seen as very long term.
50k seems to be about the working limit for AK taking everything into consideration - production could be higher in the summer but this has to be offset by poor winter weather.
Also the distance between AK and Bressay has to be taken into account - maybe Enquest are considering moving AK to a more central location between the fields???

I should add that I am a long term holder of Ocado.

Sorry Neil that is 101% not true - Ocado Solutions have massive potential as a tech company and I have absolute confidence in their ability to deliver - the very thing that will give M&S the edge in the UK will give Ocado Solutions the edge all around the world - also Ocado don't have any dead wood in their business unlike M&S - the call on M&S is if the have the ability to get rid of the dead wood - I think that they do but Valueplay clearly doesn't.

Yes, the outlook for Brent seems to be much better now, at the time I thought it would stay below $40 for the rest of 2020.
At least Enquest actually follows Brent for better or worst - PMO and Tullow seem able to create their own volatility that is good for the traders but not the long term holders.

As I said in my earlier post Equinor are moving away from hydrocarbons as the main focus of their business so they are unlikely to want to invest in a major new field. However, Enquest offers them a much cheaper alternative to make the most of their asset using AK to the mutual benefit of both companies. Without Kraken the crude would probably stay in the ground.
Regarding an equity raise that seems to be the path AB will always take - he simply wants to build the company as is the case with all companies with ambitions to grow - standing by and waiting for natural declines in production to sink overall production isn't his way of doing things.

Also I see that Walmart want shot of Asda - the right deal would probably suit both parties on the basis that Asda would be worth more going forward to Amazon than it is to Walmart who could probably do with the cash.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-53478180

One thing for long term holders to consider is that this brings the likelihood of another equity raise that much closer and also a restructuring of debt.
Its not just buying the stake this time, but developing it and even with AK and the rest of the Kraken infrastructure in use that is likely to be costly.

I wonder if Amazon will make the move by buying Morrison or Asda or even Sainsbury.
It does actually make sense if they are serious about Grocery in the UK.