Member Info for chilting

New investor with 6% holding.
The stockbroker and investment manager Walker Crips PLC - WCW - has taken a 6% stake via W B Nominees Limited a company it has a 75% stake in.

Valueplay
Your arguments do stack up in the short to medium term - it will take a while to turn M&S around and sentiment could still drift down.
My interest is in the long term - 3-5 years - I believe that by then this company will be back as one of the countries leading retailers at the expense of the big four supermarkets and also regain its dominance of the clothing market.
The mix of online and fresh produce local convenience stores will give it the edge over the completion.

It just needs a good news RNS to light the blue touch paper.

Encouraging remarks from Fauci in Reuters interview.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-fauci/fauci-bullish-on-prospects-for-u-s-vaccine-not-worried-about-china-winning-race-idUKKCN24G30E

Fauci vaccine by year end.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-fauci/fauci-bullish-on-prospects-for-u-s-vaccine-not-worried-about-china-winning-race-idUKKCN24G30E

The news is that it looks like AstraZeneca have cleared stage 1 but are having problems with stage 2 because of the lack of the virus in the UK - it relies on some of their candidates coming into contact with the virus.
Moderna have cleared 1 and are doing 2 then they are going for stage 3 at the end of the month - they have already started manufacturing their vaccine.
Bring on the Horseshoe Crabs!

I certainly agree that 2021 should be better but it will be event led.

We simply don't know how long the Covid-19 crisis will last and how much economic damage it will continue to inflict.
Until we know the answer to those questions everything else is speculation.

On the plus side we know that Enquest can keep its head above water with Brent at these levels for as long as it takes but I fear that the SP will continue to only make rather dreary progress right into 2021.

The level of risk is fully reflected in both companies SP's.
Anyone who brought Ocado more than about six months ago would already have seen the big capital gain that the market has priced in but is unlikely to see the same percentage gain in the next year or so, although new contracts won around the world will certainly boost the SP.
M&S on the other hand is a low sentiment share with little of the potential priced in and lots of baggage.
The overriding concern for investors is that they get rid of the baggage and the judgement to invest here rests on if you think that they will.
Personally I think that they will and that the Corvid crisis will give them the necessary push.

Then we must look at the future for M&S with Ocado Retail. The main point here is that because of technology M&S will be making money from home delivery - to all their competitors it is just an extra expense. Also their competitors are being badly squeezed by the discounters from the bottom so they have to keep their prices keen - they are stuffed.
Ocado Retail holds just 1.7% of the UK grocery market worth £193.6 billion, this share can only increase and it could increase substantially - hence my optimism for M&S.

The May update said that Erith was running at 110,000 orders a week - up from 80,000 orders a week at the end of Q1.

Does anyone know the time scale for the ramp up to full capacity at 200,000 per week?

The hook-up completed at around 16.00BST - about 27 hours.

SS is on her way to Scapa Flo for a STS with MINERVA KALYPSO - it looks like the load is bound for Rotterdam.

Valueplay
I agree that it isn't yet clear when things will turn around for M&S and as will other contrarian investments this is always something that is very difficult to predict, also Corvid-19 will continue to dictate the agenda but when things do improve M&S will be well placed to benefit.
In fact the decisions forced on the board during the coming months to close stores will be the main reason for the reversal of fortunes and give M&S the full benefit of online without the baggage. This will in turn improve sentiment and lift the SP.

The key to shutting down redundant retail space will be reusing the land or the buildings.
If this can be done for profit that would greatly help the process.
The aim should be to work with local authorities to develop residential schemes in town centres to utilise the existing infrastructure, including redundant shoppers car parks, that would ensure the local shops, restaurants and other local services prospered. This would include M&S food outlets.

This is interesting!!!

Looking at the May 6th update we find this -
"CFC 4, in Erith, South East London, continues to ramp up and is currently processing 110,000 standard sized orders per week versus an equivalent number of 80,000 at the end of the First Quarter"

The eventual capacity for Erith is 200,000 orders per week so that is an additional 90,000 orders a week at some stage.

Maybe the reports that there won't be any extra delivery capacity any time soon might not be correct???

Retail is bound to be a magnet for the shorts with sentiment being so low.

Long term holders have to look beyond this period at the positives - especially online.

This is a time to accumulate - not to make profits - this is what contrarian investment is all about.

Hook-up timed at around 13.00BST.

Midas
The point is that this is now an investors share - if you are a trader look elsewhere.
Its one to keep very long term for your pension and probably the dividend income one day.

In a very perverse way the worst Covid-19 gets the better the long term outcome for M&S shareholders - simply because M&S will be forced into taking brutal decisions to reduce their store network.
Only the retailers who have a strong online presence will prosper unless they are at the discount end of the market - Primark, Aldi etc.

The fall out from this saga will mark a turning point for retailers, simply because Boohoo are going to have to increase their prices. That has to be good news for all textile retailers.

Excellent entry point created for new investors.

Erith continues to ramp up capacity - no news on when Andover, Bristol or Purfleet will come on line except this -

" Despite restrictions on social distancing and travel, in the various markets where we operate, whether in the UK or internationally, we currently expect no material delays from COVID-19 in the delivery of future CFCs for partners."