Member Info for chilting

mrc
It will be interesting looking for evidence of a major oil supply problem as the world recovers from Covid, because I guess it would be the difference between Enquest's SP staying below 20p and pushing on into the 60p party range and beyond.

mrc
Have you a way of proving you statement on your 12.22.
I suggested yesterday looking at when KSA maxed out on production.
What other indicators can we look for apart from the obvious with US shale?
Its easy to say that there hasn't been investment but we are yet to see any evidence that this has impacted production.

The point is that if we don't have views on where the oil price is going next then we cannot even begin to know where the SP is going.
The current consensus by most contributors that oil is bullish in the long term underpins our investment here.

There is certainly a very strong case for being bullish for oil throughout 2021.
It seems that we have just taken another step up and hopefully it will hold at this level for a while.
The rebound of the Chinese economy will shore up the gains.
Large parts of the global economy is already recovering from Covid.

Looking back they seem to have a good record calling Ocado's SP.

The big question of the day is Japanese tennis star Naomi Osaka using Sodium Polyitaconate on her magnificent curly hair?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/tennis/56080232

Flowkey
Yes, certainly the 8p was OTT at the time but its probably the level we will rise to when we see some figures.
As always the attention span for AIM stocks is low - hence the reduction in volume and subsequent reduction in SP.
I think that we have to expect this sort of stop start for an extended period, simply because of the low market cap.

The market made a decisive move towards a post Covid world today - I guess some investors here were tempted and sold their investment here to purchase Covid recovery stocks.

Nice to see WTB leading the way amongst the Covid recovery stocks - lots more to come as the vaccine roll out continues - its also looking increasingly likely that Summer Holidays in 2021 will be mainly staycations - great news for Premier Inn.

More clear evidence today that hydrogen stocks are in overbought territory.
I think this sideways movement will continue for a while with investors taking advantage of the dips to fill up for the long term.
I guess we could still be at this level in 2-3 months time, but the demand is too strong for a big dip.

Pmoran
I think its more likely that investors buying today are buying in the expectation that the consortium will be taking MAB private - so this is a takeover situation and as they already own 55% and have committed to the Open Offer shares then it is a very safe bet that they will succeed - if that is their aim.

Odyzean have played a very clever game especially when you consider that the property portfolio was devalued by Covid - this from the summer results -

"The overall property portfolio valuation has decreased by £524m, reflecting a £132m separately disclosed net impairment charge in the income statement and a £392m net decrease in the revaluation reserve. We believe that this represents a reasonable valuation, based on perceived market conditions at the balance sheet date but note the high degree of uncertainty at that time, shortly following enforced shutdown of all sites in the hospitality sector, coupled with an absence of observed comparable transactions."

By providing working capital they have put themselves in a position to take the company private and post Covid the freehold property assets will revalue up again.

They already own 55% and with the additional offer shares this will increase. The rest of the shares left in circulation will cost them more to acquire, if that is their intention, but I guess they are well able to cover the cost.

All Corvid recovery stocks are outperforming the market this morning.

I think that Odyzean are planning to take MAB private and are buyers - hence the rise.

Oil shares may at last be joining the party as the market starts to see an end to Covid - good gains all-round today.

M&S is joining the party - the whole market is starting to see the way out of Covid now.
The Chinese are certainly post Covid and their economy is growing stronger by the day.
The UK should be the first European economy to recover because we lead the way in vaccinations - the US isn't far behind.

I suppose that Odyzean are buyers now and will increase their stake.

SP is moving up though, so there must be some value to the other existing shareholders.

Although this from the second RNS seems to indicate that the company is going private -
"Odyzean also intends to work with the management team to ensure the strategy and structure of the business are appropriate to optimise its long-term success and that the time and cost devoted to public company matters are reduced."

A preemptive warning of a supply shortage should be easy to observe.
Just keep an eye on KSA production and when that maxes out the world is probably heading for a supply shortage.
In other words when Saudi production start to exceed 10 million b/d and stays there, they are getting stretched.

WTI trading over $60