Fact or fiction???24 Mar 2021 19:46
Even seemingly small shocks may have large effects. Can they help explain a spike in oil prices?
In February Venezuela cut off oil sales to ExxonMobil during a legal battle over nationalization of the company’s properties there.
In late March saboteurs blew up the two main oil export pipelines in the south of Iraq—cutting about 300,000 barrels per day from Iraqi exports.
On April 25, Nigerian union workers went out on strike, causing ExxonMobil to shut in production of 780,000 barrels per day from three fields.
Two days later, on April 27, Scottish oil workers walked off the job, leading to closure of the North Forties pipeline that carries about half of the United Kingdom’s North Sea oil production.
As of May 1, about 1.36 million barrels per day of Nigerian production was shut in due to a combination of militant attacks on oil facilities, sabotage, and labour strife.
At the same time, it was reported that Mexican oil exports had fallen sharply in April due to rapid decline in the country’s massive Cantarell oil field.
On June 19, militant attacks in Nigeria caused Shell to shut in an additional 225,000 barrels per day. On June 20th Nigerian protesters blew up a pipeline that forced Chevron to shut in 125,000 barrels per day.
Each of these events clearly registered in the spot market. It is not implausible to believe that, arriving in quick succession, they contributed heavily to the rapid acceleration in the spot price of oil.
Is this fact or fiction - if it is fact what happened to Brent.