Member Info for chester18

12th August 2022 exactly 3 years for the conversion expiry date on Redmiles 1st traunch of CLN's £1.75m worth on 12/08/2025. The 2nd traunch of £17.9m expires on 10/11/2025.

Aug 28th : 2 years since we received the funding from Innovate UK.
Sept 13th : ModiFY at 3 months
Sept 29th : Covidity would reach 6 months since the last RNS ( 29th March )
Oct 5th : Covidity reaches 12 months since FPD.
End Oct : Usually the Final Results announced
Nov 19th : Scib1 + Ci reaches 12 months since FPD.
Mid / Late Nov : AGM

Reports due between now and year end :
Covidity. - Early Data, both 1st and 2nd Cohorts Full 6 month trial readout.
ModiFY. - Toxicology and Safety report.
ModiFY. - Expansion of trial and multiple clinical centres opened.
Scib1 + Ci. - Early Data promised in 2022.
ModiFY. - Early Data promised in 2022.

Not to mention the possibilities of deals for AvidiMab, Glycan Mabs or the Covid Vaccine.

Many, many 'Shots on Goal'.

Chester.

Interesting conversation this morning, must admit that we've known about Mab 2811 for quite sometime and would be good to know where we are at with it.

£8 a share currently means a MCap of over £6.5B and when Redmile Convert their CLN's in late 2025 = £9.5B. I think that SP value won't happen for at least 10 years and also means Scancell is not bought out and becomes a stand a lone multinational biotech.

Chester

Agree ??

Multiple buys swamping the £ 12.25 sell and somebody ruined the whole thing with £1k dump.

Chester.

Patience has been the pre-requisite of being a Scancell LTH.....

At the moment we are rapidly approaching a fulcrum in the direction of our investment. Calmness is often quoted as being before a storm.

What we need is a dam good positive deluge of news........ and some rain for that matter...

Chester.

Morning Dracula1

There is an excellent book written by the two scientist involved with the Oxford Vaccine that answers your question in really good detail.

The book is entitled 'Vaxxers'. Worth every penny and its a good read.

Chester.

Hi ratclffewriter,

I've never been described as 'Happy Clappy' but I suppose there is always a first time....

Could it also be that Redmile can be allocated a similar moniker 'Mad / Happy Clappy' investors..... they obviously had nothing better to do with the £40m.

Chester.

Their is a simple way at looking at my posts which I always try to fall towards the positive where possilbe.

If I invest in a company the first think I ask myself is : 'what is the safety net in that business', in other words where is the solid ground that the company rests upon.

With Scancell its the partial success of SCIB1, a drug that worked, saved lives but hit a huge shift in sentiment towards 'Cancer Vaccines' just when the Ph2 / Ph3 trials needed the enthusiasm of Big Pharma to progress. The fact that it worked albeit in a small trial gives me confidence in Scancell's science. They do know what they are doing and have invested in high quality staff to ensure that all the platforms are stringently assessed as 'fit for purpose'.

Knowing that there is substance behind Scancells scientific goals allows me enough confidence to invest my hard earned monies and when I post on here I had better be positive in what I say or what's the point of my investment. Doesn't mean that I'm not frustrated at times, at just how long its taking to reach the positive data we all want to hear. All I know is that Science done properly takes as long as it takes and when the data does arrive 'good, bad or indifferent' it will have been applied with upmost care and attention to detail.

This current period of waiting is by far the most difficult because we know that the drugs are doing their thing right now inside patients as you read this post and if those trials show positive results our perspective on Scancell will completely change.

Is what I have just written a Ramp or is it Positive Enthusiasm ?

Chester.

Hi Taverham

I wrongly presumed 30 days meant by the 22nd August but as correctly pointed out its 30 business days from the 21st July. With, a Bank Holiday Monday ( 29th ) I make the 30 days ending on Friday 2nd September.

It allows for a potential week of shenanigans from the Full Year Report on the 18th if Newcrest decide not to announce their decision to buy or pass during that Report.

Chester.

Newcrest have given the Shorters an opportunity to apply even more downward pressure on the SP, but there are some very clear answers arriving in the next 2 / 3 weeks.

How will Newcrest approach the 5% purchase, they have 30 days to decide which makes Monday 22nd of August the maximum time allowed.

Will they announced the 5% during the Full Year Report on the 18th and if they do will they find maximum positivity to explain the £60m price tag.

What if there is no decision by the 18th, why delay until the deadline only two working days later. Would they refuse to pay the £60m when Greatland have offered a higher value just to keep at 30%, how would they explain that away to their shareholders ?

Our CEO has pushed Newcrest into a corner by offering to pay them off and maybe they are a bit irked, even so they have to make a decision.

As soon as Newcrest announce their decision our directors will be free to purchase as many shares as they want and SD said there is pent up demand within his team.

If all these issues fall to our advantage, Newcrest positive on Havieron in the report, the 5% signed and sealed, GGP with debts paid and some cash arriving in the bank plus multiple directors purchases, the short positions will be getting very toasty.

They can mess with the SP now but they are heading for a potential cliff edge, hopefully.

Chester.

We know that the 1st dose is at a low level to ensure that there are no harmful side effects to the drug. Then there is a period of time to wait and see if all is well, after that wait of ( 'X' weeks ) the patient is given a full dose and again the patient is observed to ensure tolerance and safety.

I'm presuming there will be a standard of practice to how long those waiting / observing periods should be. Is 4 weeks after each dose enough time ?

The reason I ask is, if 30 days is a sufficient delay per dose to witness any unwanted side effects then the Safety / Tolerance part of the trial could be completed now or in the next few weeks. As an open label trial surely it will be reported at the earliest opportunity.

Chester.

For anyone who is being persuaded that Scancell won't add up to much, just watch the attached Proactive Investor presentation by Prof Lindy Durrant -CEO.

This presentation was in December 2021, the details in the presentation give an insight to the potential scale of Scancells platforms but also just how far we've come in just 8 months.

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/search/advancedSearch/all/page:2?url=&keyword=Scancell

Chester.

Hi Cleanerworld

Scancell will have a lot of important news to share before the end of this year.
Covidity, ModiFY and SCIB1 + Ci trials plus possible updates on GlycanMabs, AvidiMab and just maybe on the ModiFY generated T Cells needed by BionTech.

Lets call December a half month, that means all of the above 'should' arrive in the form of RNS'es in the next 4.1/2 months. That period of time will past before we know it.

We have the football World Cup and all the Scancell data to look forward to.

Chester.

Hopefully it will be back at Oxford.

Definitely intend to go this year, with good trial results many LTH will make the journey.

Chester.

Hi Violindog

The lack of an announcement on the Covidity Trial has gone longer than even LD expected. It has everything to do with the gap from December to the RNS on the 29th March. We have been told the first Cohort went from 16 to 22 subjects and that part of the trial will now be fully completed.

The follow on Booster Trial, now going into it's 5th month with the study stating 183 days ( 6 months ) per subject for full collection of data that going to hold up any announcements. Also, we don't know at the moment how many of the necessary Cohort 2 subjects have actually been recruited and dosed, as far as we know we are quite possibly still recruiting.

At the outset of the trial there was a definite intention to report early data which is why we've had expectations of an update this past month.

Worse case scenario, Scancell will not report on Covidity until all of the 2nd Cohort subjects have been dosed and fully completed their trial which could be months away.

Hopefully soon, there will be a point in the gathering of the trial data that allows a partial read out so at least then we will find out if Covidity is a potential winner or not.

Chester.

Oops.....

As August arrives on Monday the ModiFY Trial starts week 8.

I don't know how quickly the 1st Low Dose moves through the gears and reaches the goal line of Safety and Tolerance but I'm hoping that we see a steady opening of clinical sites before the beginning of September.

Seven full weeks completed and so far no adverse events to report, that is 100% positive.

When we are able to look back at August 2022 will we see it as the month that changed Scancell ?

Chester.

SD said he thinks that now the 5% is out of the way the Directors should be able to buy shares.... and .... that he knows there is definitely an appetite from him and his fellow directors to buy shares as soon as allowed.

So unless they have to wait for Newcrest's decision on the 5% ( which I doubt ) those buys could be the next upwards driving force.

Chester.

Looks like a 'Tug of War' for the next week but as we get nearer to the 18th the pressure on the Shorts will build.

The likelihood of a positive report from Newcrest will definitely help sentiment push up the SP and as Newcrest change there rhetoric to just how massive and important Havieron is the Shorts will be Toast.

Chester.

There is absolutely no way that Newcrest will refuse to buy the 5%. Shaun Day said they offered to buy the 5% at a higher price because even paying off Newcrest still would leave GGP in a better position once the ore starts to flow through Telfer.

Newcrest will buy the 5% and then hail what a fantastic deal they have pulled off because the next Havieron MRE will take the gold figure over 8 million Ounces and heading towards 10m. All in my humble opinion.

Thursday 18th August Newcrest Full Year Report..... + Havieron trumpeting begins .......

Chester.

Hi TF

AB124 is probably quite right, I also applaud a challenge when a point is not factually correct.

Language can be a tricky thing to convey in words alone.

Chester.