RE: FID4 Jun 2025 22:59
Don't get me wrong, GT is top draw and I expect him to pull this off but there's clearly issues with funding as stated by the Rockhopper Director last year when he stated the biggest impediment to FID was funding.
So after 4 years of trying to secure funding its difficult to believe funders are only /still at the 'due diligence' stage as stated.
Far more likely for funders is that Nav are, at this moment in time,simply too high risk, already being in debt up to the hilt in relation to profit and funders have seen too many over leveraged oil companies, like Pmo/Tlw etc go to the wall, which makes them sceptical about lending $1.4 Billion to a company already swimming in debt that hasn't,to date,returned significant profits nor secured a larger partner to offset some of the risk.
So my take is after Nav shows consistent production on Shenandoah, a smaller funding package with say 25/30K bopd to kick off with, (9/10k net to Rock) possibly lower if Nav can procure a larger partner to share the risk, could be achieved.
Time will tell who is right but as long as the basin gets opened that's what matters, production will then increase over time and long term holders will be amply rewarded.