Member Info for Cherokee101

Up until recently, the companies that mined Polyhalite have sold it on to be used as a coarse, industrial salt. I.e. for clearing ice primarily. Sirius, as far as I am aware, are pioneers in proving just how good polyhalite is as a fertiliser (never call it potash, it is a premium fertiliser). Poly4 is the brand name for the crushed pellet form, which to date, has been patented and taken up by a number of suppliers, proving end demand. Other forms of polyhalite, such as those sold by ICL, is in coarser form, usually reserved for industrial use and clearing ice. Their potential ramp up to 3m tons just further bolsters and validates SXX investment case. Think about it... Cherokee

The company's own calculation of NPV (net present value) at full 20mtpa at an avg of $145 a ton equates to around £2.20 a share. This doesn't include any upside or downside factors. Upside factors: 1. We could purchase another company that helps us (vertical integration would be nice) 2. Potash prices might be much higher in the future Downside factors: 1. Time and budget issues 2. Dilution yada yada yada 3. Black Swan 4. Discovery of larger deposit of Polyhalite elsewhere by another co. Cherokee

A few of you chaps have suggested that working with ICL would have been mutually beneficial. I don't buy that, but would appreciate some reasons to the contrary? Cherokee

5 minutes of digging into his previous articles and you will breathe a sigh of relief. He has slayed the likes of Tesla and Netflix, in some cases just prior to their share prices rocketing. Stick to the facts and weigh them accordingly. Fact no.1: There are a number of risks, but the most obvious one which has happened in nearly all mining projects i've invested in, is the "time and budget" factor. I bet you my last penny we either go over time or budget on construction. Fact no. 2: There are many clear positives. In my opinion, the base market has been established and stage 2 will be entirely debt. That little "mistake" on Twitter a few weeks ago was a bit more than a fat finger. I expect a couple of fat TorPs in the coming weeks. A wild card from India amongst the many. The major thing to watch is insider shareholdings. Company's are leaky at the best of times.

"I can’t afford to lose my money some 60k that I’ve worked hard for". You are breaking rule no. 1.

I had a good read of the AIM admission prospectus and found it very interesting that the company intends to gather any rock salt it drills through as a bi-product, and sell it on. Very clever.

Reitring by 49 is some achievement. May I ask what you did for a living? In today's age, job competition is fierce and a standard house deposit in a city is £20k. Considering UK average salary is 27k, it would take years to get a 500k plus portfolio (post tax and living costs).

"Amazed that I haven't spent any of my capital". In a bull market...

Each to their own BlackpoolChris. I imagine most PIs will exit upon doubling their money. It takes skin akin to leather to hold forever (a la Buffett). Assuming things go to plan, and one day it decides to diversify, this could be a similar mcap to the big boys out there. At that point, even £2/3 a share will seem like a bargain. GLA.

My original point was that the empirical evidence shows that borrowing to invest in low risk shares provides (on average) a better return than borrowing to invest in high risk shares. I am not saying one should never borrow to invest. People do that all the time. The government does it daily. Just ensure you have the means to cover your liabilities. Of course everyone has a different risk profile and a grand to me is peanuts to another man. I would love SXX to reach for the stars. £2 a share is my ultimate sell target, which whilst doesn't give me a retirement package, it will certainly help towards it. But, I am not wet behind the ears, and things will go wrong along the way (injuries, deaths, delays, product contamination, issues- just hold your breath.

I'd hazard a guess that there aren't many companies like Unilever at all (or like SXX for that matter). I don't think any other company in the FTSE has such a dividend track record. In fact, stock returns are negatively skewed. The 100 year US stock market returns are something like 8% pa inflation adjusted. It's a casino out there!

I have made a LOT of money in SXX, it is probably my best investment. However, one cannot point to the future with certainty. I personally "think" SXX will return a lot to shareholders over the coming years. But my point was, Unilever has over 100 years of trading history, and has grown its divi by 8% pa over 56 years. That is simply astonishing. It was just a point to note, that on average, studies have found that holding something with lower risk for the VERY long term, will outpeform riskier investments. Simply due to the cyclicality and/or uncertainty of profits from the latter. Good luck to all long term holders.

Read up on something called risk parity. Part of the empirical analysis shows that gearing up on a "blue chip" is many times more likely to make you wealthy than gearing up on a risky stock. So, if you take Unilever for example vs SXX from Sirius' listing date (2005) you would have made almost exactly the same amount of money. So why get into debt on the risky strategies? Play it safe, never bet the house.

I would argue, that the markets forward price stocks on average with a 3-5 year outlook. So, we would breach one pound, all going to plan, before we enter production. Of course, the current share price is way below NPV which indicates the market believes risks are higher than potential rewards.

£5? Based on what? I would love that to be the case, but not as projections currently stand.

Back of fag packet. SXX state: NPV of $28bn for 20mtpa (upon production) Current market cap: $2.2bn So that means you could double from here almost 3x (£2.40ish) over the next 5-10 years Caveat: Does not include bad news, recessions, or even good news (diversification would increase the potential).

It entirely depends on the investment mandate (growth, income, recovery etc). Very few institutions will buy into a company with no cash flow. If the project goes wrong it can be career suicide.

The potato results are particularly impressive. Thr additional yield over standard potash is incredible.

A few folk have said that the commitment letter deadline has been missed. Why? The news I have read states "CF expects commitment letters in June, which will then be compiled into a final document in July". Are we aniticpating an RNS on the basis of receiving the letters?

Afternoon, new poster long time lurker. A new tweet this afternoon has rectified the original, it now says "intended to be 100% debt". Saying "it will be" is market sensitive. Cherokee.