Member Info for Cherokee101

Best advice ever given to me;

Volatility is not risk.

Risk is a permanent loss of capital.

Don't equate price with value guys, this is a great project which needs more funding. Always test your own utility - how much can you stomach (ignore everyone else).

If my holding went to 1p per share, I could live.

Eggs and basket folks.

SL

Absolutely, dividends are a priority - but obviously not before bond holders are satisfied.

I was just saying we shouldn't discount buybacks (it's been the growth engine for the S&P for years). A quality hallmark is a tidy balance sheet. Too many shares isn't good for EPS.

Which other big projects would you say are worth looking at, that have anywhere close to these credentials? One thing I wouldn't discount in the future is share buy backs, you might be looking at 10 years from now, but it will happen. Any BoD worth their salt will look to tidy up their balance sheet. The problem you have here is that as much as I love this project (been invested for 3 years, following for 5) is that it is speculative. It will be speculative until cash is coming through the door. On that basis, we should hope for the best but expect the worst. I for one, will expect a bit more dilution, a construction balls up at some point and maybe one or two senior guys leaving. What I have said, has applied to nearly all major projects world wide. CF doesn't sh*t rainbows. Once you swallow that reality, life gets easier. I can then hope for good news, but not be too disappointed.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-economy-trade-soybeans/chinas-august-soy-imports-jump-as-buying-from-brazil-continues-idUSKCN1LO04Z?utm_campaign=trueAnthem%3A+Trending+Content&utm_content=5b939edf04d3017dd086c596&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=facebook

It is vital that we remain vigilant and question changes to the original investment thesis.

OK so moaning about things grates after a while, but questioning the small print is a must.

Blind faith is not often rewarded -think Enron.

Most of what you say about NPV is accurate, but the bit about shareholders only caring about dividends and therefore, should only value a company on then is nonsense. Everyone is different. I personally, view equities as a capital growth vehicle. They are not income vehicles. The UK and some European countries are exceptions when it comes to dividends. Most companies don't pay dividends, or if they do they are puny and insignificant. If i want income, I buy fixed income. The clue is in the name. Most good institutions should value companies on "Free Cash Flow", as in, what money is available after everything - capex, opex, tax, misc etc etc. Real and future potential FCF is what ultimately drives a company's value, that is the Crux. Cherokee.

A pal of mine who works in investment banking reckons this "baby and the bath water" scenario was the company's way of massively shaking the tree to get rid of the hot money, and get the MMs in. In addition, he doesn't think the news is that bad - in fact, he reckons Sirius have over played the downside too, to they can over deliver. Interesting! Probably a hold for me until Q1 2019, by which point I will have probably missed the boat...

Amazing that we hard hardly any press on the stellar achievements over the past 18 months. Have a cost revision and suddenly we're in major papers. Incredible, biased journalism at its finest. I think someone said a while ago (Myo?) There are some powerful, dark forces that would love this project to fail.

Chloe

I don't think anyone is disputing completion of the mine.

It's the road to completion that is difficult and bumpy.

If we are not diluted to death, long term investors (really talking 10 years) will make a shed full of cash, and dividends to boot.

But mark my words, it is going to be bumpy.

I am a massive fan of Fraser, but to shut investors down regarding their genuine concerns is not helpful to the debate as a whole. I do not blame Fraser for the leak, but it needs to be said that it is worthy of an fca investigation. Considerable price sensitive information was out and about on facebook comments days before it hit the RNS feeds. All companies have 3 vital fundamental components. Financials, products and services, and the management. Fraser aside, I think there are holes in the ship that need mending. We cannot turn a blind eye here. We must be professional at all times. If Bob's wife overheard Bob on the phone and told her friends, the lot of them should be reprimanded, as simple as that. I am all for quality, quality and quality. Patch the leaks and restore integrity.

I think on days like this only MYO and PAAA should post between themselves, in a manner not to disimilar to a Council in the age of enlightenment. The rest of us should read, breathe and come back when the dust settles.

Essentially, the bad news is the potential for further equity dilution. CF said on the call that he is not considering tapping the senior debt markets. Could be subordinated debt, strategic partners or a.n.other. I am confident in the long term plan, CF came across well and the NPV/ IRR is attractive. What really annoys me is what I said earlier, leaky ships often imply loose controls at the top.

Chesh, Mine getting built is not the problem here. ToPs are in the bag and project is still on time for first Poly in 2021. The issue I have is with what senior management classify as price sensitive news. The tunnel structural changes have been known for some time now, so why note it today? Cramming with a bit of good news. Let's not mention too, how leaky this ship has become. Someone at the top needs to get a real handle on this asap. A quick look at Facebook comments shows that the average burk on the street knew something was afoot on Monday!!! Gla lth.

In a nutshell; The Good; 3m tons of ToPs from Brazil and EU around the corner Project is massively de-risked. The Bad; The project is going to cost a bit more then we all thought The ugly; Equity dilution is likely.

Just trawled through the Facebook comments from yesterday and one poster wrote "why is the share price dropping, is it because of the rumours of equity dilution". What a leaky company. FCA should investigate the initial sellers.

I think Mr. Market has done a lot of the initial damage. Some PI's will sell off today. Really terrible controls at the company top level it would seem. Initial thoughts are, some positives in the construction, agreements are most likely in the bag, and we probably anticipated "over budget" at some point (not yet come across a mining co. that didn't). For me, a couple of years of pain is worth it, the cash flow that will kick off from this project will be unreal.

Very interesting and informative presention. Whilst the results show Poly4 as beneficial, I was suprised to see it was only marginally so for the Tea trials. Still, we can't revolutionise every single crop!! Onwards and upwards. Cherokee

Oil Man. Fraser said ST2 funding is to be confirmed by year end. So why would we expect an announcement already? Cherokee

Guys, guys, guys. Macro fluff news will ALWAYS cause a negative-cash flow company to take a pounding. If you have spare money this a beautiful gift from Heaven. Enjoy and hold on tight. This is all a fugazi.

Knockin - welcome to the car dealership side of financial services mate...