Member Info for Cherokee101

"Stage two WILL take place the mine WILL be built and the SP WILL be well north of where we are now." Alan, have you ever heard of a little company called Enron? Stuff goes wrong all the time, even for the largest companies in history. Make no bones about it, what these Ozzy lads are attempting is no small beer.

Milo,

Curious as to what alarm bells you heard last summer?

I know the day after the shares dropped a bunch of posts appeared on facebook asking about dilution.

Sheps

Do you believe we are delaying stage 2 because of the IPA situation?
Splitting from 2 to 3 tranches has sorted that out has it not?

Forgive my ignorance here, but are we not just waiting for the big shots to sign the cheques and agree to the proprosals?

The largest lenders will be asking themselves one thing, will we get our money back in x years with interest on top?
Their checklist probably looks like this:

1. High quality team assembled? - probably
2. Product quality verified? - yes
3. Construction advancing smoothly? - yes!
4. Revenue prospects in the bag? (ToPs) - mostly, but this China ToP is a pain in our a$$
5. Procurement process undertaken? -yes
6. Lending process risk adjustment assessed? - IPA has screwed us a little, let's recap...

Have I missed anything?

Milo,

I literally said most MMs haven't invested either because of the lack of cash generation or because of the speculative nature of it.

Ru,

I absolutely agree with timelines and misses. I think the BoD should have prepared shareholders better for this type of situation and I have called for more transparency for months.

As I said previously, we are all grown ups, we can take bad news, we just can't deal with infinite uncertainty.

There is obviously something the lenders aren't agreeing on at the moment, and if CF could stop treating it like his personal project and let the markets know more it would be better.

For instance, I would like them to say "ladies and gents, we cocked up, here is a list of wrongs, and it will take a long time to sort out - i.e. another year".

My mate who works in banking says the big fund managers who play in the mid cap space, either don't touch non cash generative companies or still think it is highly speculative.

Fingers crossed we get over the line soon.

Ru, Is that not the point? I highly doubt the BoD know the exact completion time of stage 2.... or they would have bloody told us! Another clue is CF gently alluding to ceasing construction in Q2 if they have to. My guess is that the lenders have established their points, and probably found a few things lacking in the ToPs. I cannot think of anything else lacking in either Poly4 trials, procurement or the construction process. So it must be an issue with the ToP quality, right?? And probably the Chinese ToPs. So my second guess, is that the European ToP, will coincide with some kind of major strategic partner event (a combination of Gina and ADM? Both of whom already call us a strategic partner on their sites!! Awoogaaa wake up, wake up). Once Euro ToP and strat partner are finalised, stage 2 will lock into place. My two cents. Nothing more. Cherokee

Chaps, Can someone explain to me in layman's terms, this intrinsic link between stg1 and 2 finance? Myo has noted this and now Dt, as well as a bunch of others. Thanks Cherokee

Those asking about the spike at the end of the day, I highly recommend looking at world markets (and even the FTSE).

There was a rally near the close as trade tensions have eased
a little.

If there was any positive stage 2 related news it would be up 20 or 30% at least.

Casapinos,

Is it your intention to buy back in once Stage 2 is sorted?

Thanks
Cherokee

Just a quick thanks to Myo and a few others who gave opinions on the quality of the counterparties a few days ago, appreciated.

Fred, The people who work on construction are massivelt positive and the mine will most likely get built (95% certainty) but what they are failing to grasp is, will it provide a profit to current shareholders? The answer to that is incredibly complex and currently, probably binary. My gut says hold on, I think they will get the $3bn as debt and then some kind of royalty and equity for the remainder. But the fact that Fraser even suggested stopping work tells me we are closer to the middle of negotiations than the end.

Did anyone else pick up on Fraser talking about the lenders assessing ToP quality and how SXX could seek to get higher quality balance sheet counter parties to satisfy the lenders more. Am I reading too much into this? Does it suggest some of our counterparties are not of the highest quality? I know some have pointed a dirty finger at our Chinese ToPs, but can someone alleviate my concerns? (Myo, PAAA , GK et al).

Not a bad effort there Casa. Might I suggest a reason why the £1 party might come to fruition? The hunt for yield. The blood thirsty need and desire to cream a dividend. The cost of capital is at 5000 year lows and we are in dangerous times. The demographic time bomb is going to turn the western world into a giant nursing home (just like Japan) and we....all....need...income!! Fund managers (pensiom, sovereign wealth etc) will as they often do, artificially enhance stocks that pay high yields - the yield premium. Never underestimate human greed.

Fred,

Everyone has different risk tolerences. I have a hefty amount invested, but I won't be living in a shoe box if it goes belly up.

Those who are over exposed should take heed in the lesson "never bet the farm". No matter how good an investment it might fail. Guts are guts, but stupidity will always be... stupid.

Now, on balance, we were hoping for good news but got the same dreary fog, which technically should have been exactly what to expect from a planned quarterly (i.e. no sensitive info).

If we get through this without a major f-up, then I will vote for a new BoD.

Didn't a bunch of institutions buy in around 20p?

I think that's our floor for the medium term.

Interesting words from a person named Brexit.

There are at least 6 people on here who absolutely add value. But it doesn't take a genius to know the company is in a bit of bother of late.

I must have said this a bunch of times, but I don't think people are saying this is easy. In fact, for YEARS people on this board have claimed this is a monstrous task, and hence we needed one of the best "apparently", Fraser.

Now, what people can legit complain about are the moving goal posts. Nothing much has changed with this report, but it is almost like they have fogged up more of the way forward.

I love the product and I've got a nice wedge invested and I have a 10 year holding period. But I don't want to end up like some here who bought 8 years ago and made sweet FA on the price.

In the words of Buffett, dips are usually buying opportunities for highly cash generative businesses, with sound balance sheets, managed by exceptional individuals.

We are not there yet.

Vinn,

With the greatest of respects, I don't think the share price is here because people haven't taken into account the validity of the product, or the massive (MASSIVE) potential of then company.

The very real worry, is that we may actually run out of funding, and worse, current share holders will be shafted in order to finish the build.

Of course, we could argue until we are blue that CF has a handle on it and we will get there in the end. But does he? Does he really?? The truth, is we have no idea. It is the uncertainty that bothers the market the most (coupled with global growth fears).

What I would love is for the BoD to lay it all bare, no matter how horrible and give us some well deserved truth.

Is the 3bn likely to be in the bag this quarter?
Are we going to get a strategic partner?
Are we going to get shafted?

Enough of this "almost there... not quite... nearly... maybe not" b*llocks.

And the FTSE has one of the worst 10 year records for indices.

Do you know what the 20 year capital return is on a FTSE 100 tracker?

Zero.

Not all trackers are the same, go for global or US. And seek advice.