Member Info for Cherokee101

Mazda babe : The bankers are wetting their pants, but something has slowed the party. Fraser pretty much hinted at the Chinese ToPs which are undergoing further due diligence. If there was something structurally wrong with the entire project, it would be over. No debt raise, no dilution. Curtains closed. The fact that people are still at the table (think massive high calibre players, ADM, Hancock, Wilmar), means the party is ongoing. But, someone has told us to drink some milk to line our stomachs before the next round (of financing).

Jonesrichard, Fraser categorically said if stage 2 isn't sorted by Q1 they have enough money until Q2. So that tells me we shouldn't hang our hats on 15 days.

The financiers involved have propped up absolute garbage compared with SXX. They will be focused on their risk adjusted returns as always. Sirius might be an early stage construction project, but look at the top down checklist. As a banker I would be wetting my pants: 1. proven resources (highest quality, largest reserve in the world) 2. massive RnD program globally (not to mention those small players ICL ramping up production) 3. Stacked up buyers (including Wilmar and ADM) 4. Gina Mo'f***ing Rhinehart!!! 5. Dirt cheap OPEX even with base case This is actually a near no brainer for investors. The problem in my opinion, is not with getting the cash. Fraser noted how extra DD was being done on Chinese ToPs, and Europe getting delayed. So, there is a ToP issue, and probably one where Gina is throwing some weight back at the Bankers. Many big personalities involved here. Power money. They know this is as good as a goldmine, but the chessboard is still midflow.

If Sirius are in possession of material price sensitive news, they cannot wait for a time which suits them. They are bound by the LSE regs to inform the market. Otherwise it promotes massive market inequality and destroys faith in investing. The price sensitive news is three fold 1. Stage 2 is complete 2. We are going to stop construction for a few months 3. All bets are off, go home lads The market seems to pricing in number 2.

PAAA Sorry made the assertion that MM was money manager in this context, not market maker. We need a new abbreviation for Money managers. Can we plz call them Fund Managers.

Some MMs engage in shorting (Britains most well known retail fund Fidelity Special situations has short positions as declared on the factsheet).

But this share is at the mercy of PIs. Who sold ahead of news last year? It was the droves of PIs sh**ting themselves, seeing as the Hargreaves position reduced, but the active MM funds actually stayed the same or increased.

AND most PIs engage in trading like they are hedge fund magnificos. Have a look through the back catalogue here and see how many have "a small part of their portfolio allocated to trading SXX". Always supposedly against a long position which they don't trade...

Alan G, This is in a tight range because there is no news and traders are mostly savvy. Everyday, the price follows a similar pattern. Floor of 19p and ceiling of 20p. Tightly bound, but repeatable.

So about 50% is owned by Joe Bloggs retail either through HH or trading platforms, according to Bloomberg, not 80%. Sorry.

I asked Bloomberg to look into it, they said the institutional categorisation is wrong.

HL platform owns 1.1bn Sxx shares.

Another .5bn is owned through trading platforms in the UK.

The remainder is owned by tracker funds and instutional funds and insiders.

With 80% of this stock held between Mrs Miggins who doesn't know what the stock market is, and amateur traders... I am holding forever until the day Myo announces he has sold.

Hence why you should only sell if something fundamental has gone wrong. The stock market is the only place where you can watch your intraday value of stuff move around. Imagine how stressed everyone would be if you could see your house value move by the second... When shares fall, and there is nothing fundamental going on, take a walk before selling.

SXX is listed on the Bloomberg UK earnings calendar as reporting today.

And to reiterate. I actually dislike the trading mentality. I dislike get rich quickers. It peeves me right off.

Roulette,

The word "if" followed by "I had trading capital" springs to mind.

I have no such capital to invest, I neither have the spare money, the time, or the appropriate skill level to do that.

The Bloomberg access is through my friend. I cant afford the 20k per annum for that...

Christa, I am fortunate enough to have access to a Bloomberg terminal. The system shows the holding breakdown and a large part of this share (80% ish) is held through Hargreaves Lansdown. 10% is funds (3% is a global tracker) and 10% is held by directors and others. This is still a private investor stock, and many of them are savvy traders. All of you lot call the trading range accurately quite regularly. The market is a self fulfilling prophecy. We all know the share is range bound between 19 and 21p. So therefore, if I had trading capital I would buy at 19l and sell near 21p. And I would massively capitalise on extreme movements. This will be stuck in trading patterns until major news. So play the game?

Bottom, The more concerning element is later in the year. I am a believer this will be resolved in the next 2 or 3 months. But do not doubt it going to Christmas again. Anything could happen.

Roulette, Specifically aimed at the get rich quick folk who ruin it for everyone. Cherokee.

Rrrr. I was one of those who was (rightly imo) outraged at the leak, which was all over the facebook group days before the RNS. But, months of reading showed me how many parties are involved and how many people with self serving interests are lurking about. That aside. You are right about the budget issues. But that was pre September. We are now dealing with a new information set, and I would say we need to look at this as a "post September" journey. It is a new chapter. We "might" run out of cash and the build might get delayed. We might also get diluted to ****. But on a long enough time frame, I will most likely make money. (Avg in price 22p,). But if I lose my entire investment, I will still have my house and time. I believe a lot of the get rich quick folk on here are warding off the spectre of death and so do not have time on their side. Because, capital is mostly in the hands of the old. I would say, the following wisdom pieces help me. Do not invest what you cannot afford to lose. Attatchment leads to suffering. It is not the strongest that survive, nor the most intelligent. It is the one who us most adaptable to change.

Verde, Equity is by far the most expensive way of raising money. It dilutes everyone's interest in the company, permanently. Especially the directors. Dividends are not tax deductable, but there is a tax benefit on bond interest. Dividends, historically, have always been higher than bond interest payments. So over 100 years (life of mine) this would be immense. So it is absolutely in the company's interest to raise the money via debt.

We absolutely cannot attack the BoD for timescales. Stuff happens, timescales change. We should adapt.

The only real problem has been their enthusiam in RNS feeds.

But that critique has been done to death.

Here is a solution for the bears. Sell up, cut your losses and invest elsewhere.

For those that are unsure (like me). Hold, no more buying.

For those that are confident, fill your boots.

For Alan G, keep shouting come what may.