Member Info for Cherokee101

LaurenLouise You say directors are legally obliged to act in the best interests of shareholders.... Legal shmegal, the amount of fraud and negligent cases with listed companies this past few years has been unreal... Provident financial, Capita, patisserie valerie, conviviality (the one where the finance director accidentally hid a spreadsheet hiding the millions of debt they owed). Humans are humans, mostly powered by greed and envy in the high corporate ranks. I trust Fraser's finance prowess... but I wouldn't let him marry my daughter.

Alan G, CF stated that the 3bn would be sought via debt markets, if possible. There are no guarantees, hence the share price. The additional 400-600m could be dilution, as stated in the RNS, as part of the 4 options. For the record, it is not a little late to do anything... the extra funding was dropped on our heads, and we're currently in a binary situation where we might get funded or run out of cash.... The BoD have no reason to be loyal to current shareholders.

TonyFawcett Just curious why you think plenty of activity = not running out of cash anytime soon? CF was very clear that they would build until the fat lady sings, and then he would slow down or even stop construction if the coffers ran dry. Acitivity is not a sign of cash in the bank, nor is it a sign that stage 2 is going to be favourable to share holders. What we need is a fat juicy RNS entitled "stage 2 financial close, minimum dilution" stat.

"Major dilution"

“As it is not one swallow or a fine day that makes a spring, so it is not one day or a short time that makes a man blessed and happy.” - Aristotle Unless you are a trading guru, look at the long term and not the daily movements. Satisfaction comes from compounding. Get rich slowly. For what its worth, I check the RNS feed daily but the share price maybe every couple of weeks.

Over the long term, stocks correlate only to earnings. That is it. Earnings are the major driver. Hence the saying, in the short term the markets are a voting machine and a weighing machine in the long term.

ICL has pretty deep pockets.

Read their annual report and you will see so much rhetoric around them being the first and the only polyhalite producer in the world and they will be ramping up massively.

Shame we couldn't work together on such ventures.

Here's hoping.

Of course people can't do without food.

My point is that our production currently has a maximum capacity. So even if the whole world was starving, we could only supply 20m tns.

World pop is growing and needs more food, that is the thesis, but our profit is predictable and capped (unless we diversify with future profits).

My banker mate (who is a fund analyst) says people never look at operational risk (cos they dont have the access).

Woodford has had a hundred red flags over the past 2 years (high team turnover, compliance officer departure, questionable biotech due diligence, increasingly erratic behaviour).

Funds aren't as easy as people think. It is not all about past performance.

Just to put a downer on the whole netflix thing - our share price, as presently dictated by our business model, has a natural ceiling linked to our product capacity (20m tns) and the price of the base fertilisers that make poly4.

If we diversify, and grow the business in other ways, then yes. But Netflix has an exponential model, it can theoretically be in every home in the world, which has internet and TV. Internet penetration is below 50% in placed like India, so the potential is absolutely enormous.

But one could argue much of that is in the price (priced for perfection).

All the best

It isn't the best news we could have, it is news that we are back to the negotiating table with a new party.

This share will flop around 20p until end of April, then you better hope we get some good news then.

If we do, the shares will fly. If we get radio silence or worse, bad news, we could tank.

Make or break time.

For me, I feel we will get there... just, but can't say it's been an easy few years.

I say most... I should say "many".

All the best.

Vinn

I see your points, it is sad that we are in this position, given the potential of the project. But most of the traders are PIs who have a trading account alongside their LT investment, and shorters (pure and convertible chaps).

Ask the question and I bet you will find many on here who trade this regularly.

And in all honesty, it is one of the easiest to trade daily (i dont it) but you can see the patterns. This morning I remarked to my wife that I bet you it ends negative, following the strong start.

Once we have clarity and break milestones, we will be free of the AIM mentality.

Yeeeesh, How many price watchers about today! Bet you don't do the same with your house or car. Until there is fundamental news, it is just noise, traders and algos, nothing more. Turn the screens off, come back on the day of the next RNS.

SL, Thanks for your comments. The points made by Cran were made by myself in a deleted post. To that extent, aren't the lenders viewing us like a venture capital project? I.e. with no assets and just a wonderful business plan? If we did raise a load of cash via dilution, and we end up spending most of it on contractors to build a tunnel. What assets could we sell to make good on the debt? It might look good on our balance sheet, but we would have to use the cash to build stuff... and the stuff we are building... is not easily sold? Unless we dilute for the hell of it to simply shore up the balance sheet... but do companies do that,,?? So anyone lending to us will want to be absolutely sure our ToPs are watertight so we can make cash.

Anyone read through ICL's 2018 annual report? Very interesting reading on how they: 1. The world's only dedicated polyhalite miner 2. Ramping up production to meet massive demand 3. Switched off all other potash activities to concentrate on polyhalite In part this is amazing for us as it verifies our product. But also annoying that they look for opportunities to throw knives in our backs.

Ok seriously irritating. Another response to a sensible balance sheet discussion has been deleted. Is someone reporting my posts? If so please have the decency to challenge me head on and tell me why. That much I deserve.

But if you are saying we would need to collateralise the full level of debt... we would need to be diluted to hell and back.

The company hasn't hinted of dilution, and even the additional 4-600m is not certain to be dilution.

So would any lender give that much money without collateral on the balance sheet?

Wouldn't private equity do that? They do that for venture capital all the time, often those investments are worth nothing more than the paper the idea is written on.

We have tangible product in the ground, and real sales contracts ready to go? So why would we need collateral in another form?

Seeing as I my conversation was rudely deleted, I will try again. I come from a position of ignorance of balance sheets, so declaring that first I now want to tackle SL's dollop of dilution in practical terms. So if I am correct in assuming, debt issuers want some form of collateral right? How will issuing a swathe of ordinary shares be used as collateral? Sure, ordinary shares become an asset on our balance sheet, but if the company goes bust, the shares will be worth zero? Sooo, all I can think, is that if we issue shares, we will use that money to invest in plant / materials and other tangibles, or leave it as cash in the bank. Is this accurate? Thanks