Member Info for Cherokee101

I've said this before and I will say it again. Read between the lines and it is obvious to me that Hancock Prospecting is our strategic partner. Their website and annual report talk of long term strategic partnership to aid Hancock's growing interest in agriculture. The fit couldn't be more perfect, and Gina has the $$$ to boot. Here are a couple of interesting thoughts - 1. A friend of mine who lives in Yorkshire said the locals are absolutely buzzing about the project with positivity regularly coming from the construction teams (you can see how easily leaks get out) 2. Knowing how Gina Rhinehart operates, there is not a chance in hell, that she would hand over a penny if there was to be a whiff of failure. Sure, she gets her royalties, but nobody throws £250m down the crapper unless they are seriously impaired Back to point one, I made an observation recently, which I stand by. We are way ahead of the construction timeline, judging on site pictures and reading between the lines. The Euro Torp, as with all SXX torps is probably taking longer because of add ons (like investing in other companies). The major negative for me, and I can't put my finger on it, but it is Thomas Staley. He never comes across as sincere enough to me. Anyone got any thoughts on TS? His credentials? I cannot even find where he used to work...

Why has the share price reacted negatively today?

Primarily, due to beta. We are a non cash flow company, floating amongst a sea of red as the pound got battered over the weakened and the 250 has taken it lying down.

What is more is there are now end of cycle cries from even some of the more bullish investors out there.

The market is nervous of Trump, rate rises, oil, inflation, deflation, Brexit, WW3... you name it.

We need a clear catalyst for money to flow back in broadly, and Tech profit warnings don't help.

My friend who works in banking said a lot of people are selling into strength, as they purchased shares on the wrong side of 35p.

This share is still overwhelmingly owned by nervous PIs. Many of whom will have been in the red for most of their SXX lifespan. Given the oft, fickle and short termism of PIs it does not surprise me.

PAAA, I would never usually challenge someone who well versed on this stuff. But do let me have a go here - The quote, from the RNS: "The Company believes that a US$3bn senior debt financing is the appropriate level of debt and will not seek to increase this amount" They have stated here, that 3bn senior debt, is the appropriate amount of debt. Not, "the appropriate amount of senior debt, and the rest may come from junk credit". Subordinated debt is still debt right? And they have said 3bn is the appropriate amount of debt. Full stop. Maybe I am reading too much into the wording, but the share price seems indicative of the market smelling something it either doesn't like or understand.

Very interesting Myo thanks.

I hope you are right.

Great news.

Only one small pip - CF has pretty much confirmed no more "debt" beyond 3bn (note, not just senior debt).

So it's strat partner or dilution, or both in my opinion. Anyone else thinking this?

Duracell, Where has this October Euro Torp date come from? I don't recall seeing or hearing it from the BoD? Also I recall some folk on here getting irate when the 6m tonne pa hadn't been reached by end of summer, when no such date was given. They give themselves plenty of leeway and I certainly am not expecting anything before Xmas on Stage 2. TS emphasised 2019 Q1 and that is what we should mark him on.

Something else I spotted in the Hancock annual report released a few weeks ago:

"The company has committed its first tranche of 250m and will recieve a royalty stream"

First tranche.

More to come? Plot thickens.

By the way, for all the talk of mining giants Rios, Glencore BHP -
Just check out Hancock Prospecting's website and read the stuff about "long term strategic fit" with Sirius.

Not to mention Gina's route into Beef farming - she's just purchased a massive ranch and will need to fees those cows.

Think about this for a moment...

JonesRichard £3 per share for a takeover? You havin' a laugh? Be lucky to get double at this juncture because they would have us by the nads. I'd hazard a guess that the majority of the hedge funds, mutual funds, day traders and quick buckers will make a majority vote and bend over for 60p a pop.

Herbie,

SL is right about them having to raise their game. I think TS has been mostly amateur in his handling of various situations (and he is a bit on the young side with very little experience you can validate with a google search).

As I said, Fraser is a hard worker, people attest to that, but he is not perfect and occasionaly he has tripped. But this is a monumental project and we must give leeway for a time.

If the bill goes past the 400-600 mark that I am washing my hands of TS in the next vote. He hasn't prepared us for it at all.
A little more transparency from HQ wouldn't go amiss.

Jonesrichard,

Technicals work over short term periods when there is no fundamental news (just macro news).

But earnings drive share prices over the long term (stocks re rate quarterly either up or down depending on the results).

GK,

Hence the "at this point" caveat :)

Of course there may be more costs for the project, but that would be suicide for Staley and probably Fraser.

They have nailed their sails for this additional cost and have not prepared the market for more.

If they said "400-600 and probably a load more on other areas as we re calculate" - how would that sound?... the answer is not very good.

The market has an amazing ability of focusing on extremes. A few months ago, some of you were adamant that we wouldn't clear the ToP hurdle and that would be that. We did it and now what? Oh, now it's a lending problem - nobody will lend to us because... well because of risks. But what about the ToPs... oh that's nothing, ignore them. Given that the naysayers are currently pricing in a takeover, or a terrible dilution - and the pro Sirius camp is quite the opposite in their manner (perfect outcomes with millionairdom in 5 years) - might I suggest a middle ground based on fundamental analysis? Construction and sales progress combined has been strong and as I said earlier, from what I can gather we are probably ahead of schedule on construction (given the incentives and the phases complete so far). Gina wouldn't have coughed up without toothcombing the books and placing TS on the rack (trust me, look up her previous deals). My bet is things are better than we think. A strategic partner is probably very likely at this point. Now, someone else said - so what if the mine gets built, if we get diluted to hell then there is no point... Urm, dilution is only possible on a further 400-600m at this point. Then that is literally it, forever (or until we engage in MnA in the future). How do I know this? Well because Fraser said that 3bn of debt is their target and he has pinned himself to that. That is the bellwether of CF. He tripped at the Stg1 hurdle, and now he is bracing for the second. If he fails in that endevour there will be a shareholder's revolt and I will probably want TS out too. But, I have faith and I am balanced in what I see. He is not a magician, but he works hard (second hand accounts from site workers) and he is a family bloke (Facebook profile). Not to mention, his wealth is tied up here. So, let us talk fundamentals, and ignore the extremes.

Second Scotman here. Fraser himself said he doesn't want more than £3bn debt on balance sheet as it would not be structurally efficient. So to cover the additinal 400-600m he opened the gateway for; 1. Dilution and/or 2. Strategic partner and /or 3. Hybrid financing

The project is moving along at lightning speed. (Second hand information from a guy who knows a worker). CF has most of his money tied up in the project. Gine Rhinehart is onboard (so why wouldn't I be?). Aussies help Aussies. The UK government have a huge vested interest in making this happen. We have TOPs piled high. Which means the major risk is the mine construction.... which in my view, is barely a risk at all. Because if we somehow fail, some other chaps will come along and finish the damned thing.... why? Because ££££. And because our friends at ICL have confessed we are on to a gold mine (so to speak). If we build sensibly and quickly, and reign in the cost, you will not see a ROIC anywhere else.on the FTSE. Good luck. Patience is key. If you have less than a 5 year holding period sell up now because 'it gonna be bumpy'.

As much as I am inclined to agree, I must say that just because markets are going up, does not mean that is the rational or sane position. Markets were well overdue a correction (valuations were flung out of then window last year), and hopefully markets will stay low and creep higher. Some more froth off the top wouldn't be bad either. Volatility is healthy, volatility is not risk.

With almost 80% of companies reporting having beaten expectations, we can expect a bounce tomorrow. This proves fundamentals are sound and markets are just worrying about too much... 6 months ago everyone told me the inverted yield curve meant recession was close.... now we are worried about the 10 year going too high. The stock market is the only place where; 1. People fight to buy stuff at a premium (odd) 2. People value their assets intra day. We dont do this with our houses, cars or any other investment Very odd.

1. Record M&A activity 2. Highest levels of cash on balance sheets post crisis (on average) BHP snapping up minnows - Strategic partner not a problem? GLA.

Jupiter UK growth is one of the most contrarian funds out there. So I wouldn't use it as an active bellwether.