Member Info for Cherokee101

I just want to take a moment to describe how companies are valued by the stock market.

Effectively there are two broad groups of companies, there are “growth” companies and there are “value” companies. The latter are companies that have usually matured, or have some kind of structural issue.

Growth companies, either those pre cash generation or those with the potential to grow earnings quickly, are usually assessed on long term future potential. Very little emphasis is given to traditional valuation techniques (pe, pbook, EV, price to sales etc). For the non cash generative growth companies, like SXX, you have to make assumptions and weigh those assumptions. On balance, the market has decided stage 2 is the only thing that matters, hence the current ceiling value on the price. The floor of 20-22p probably signifies sum of the parts analysis (maybe...but I might be giving traders too much kudos).

Sometimes, the market gets its knickers in a twist, but sometimes it is right. I am massive SXX fan, but it spooked the market a few times and the market hates uncertainty. Usually its the PIs who run for the hills first and MMs pick up bargains.
Remember, our current market cap is accounting for high risk, more dilution and maybe more funding – so don't read too much into it.

Anyway, we are where we are until Q1 19. Be vigilant and keep your portfolios diversified and good luck

Casapinos, you give Bankers far too much credit.

If the company has learnt anything, it should be to under promise and over deliver.

So far they have done the opposite with stage 2, but I am hoping for a Merry Xmas.

Scotman, to say Gina has no risk is a bit misguided. All investment carries risk, the "asset" as it stands today is holes in the ground and concrete structures. If stage 2 falls through, her cash will already have been used by the time she finds out. Then comes litigation, wind up, contingenies, etc etc. Gina is long term, extremely cognisant of what her current and future businesses require. Read Hancock's annual reports and you will know what Sirius (her "long term strategic partner") means to the Ozzy.

There is a marketing arrangement between Mosaic and Nutrien to swing prices and keep BHP from ever using their Jansen project (which could become the world's largest and cheapesr potash mine).

Forget Israel Chemicals, the Canadian mafia is the one to worry about.

Further to my comments, see this very interesting piece on Nutrien, on how they are trying to manipulate the markets, and keep new entrants out -

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-nutrien-potash/nutrien-steers-potash-recovery-as-bhp-waits-in-the-wings-idUSKCN1L51GR

The company he suggested that had the most to lose in terms of market share and profit, was Nutrien. They are a massive swing producer, attempting to keep prices artificially high for their bottom line.

There is a Canadian cartel, and we are seeking to eat their breakfast.

Spoke to my good banker ****** friend again and he said he asked a materials analyst what he thought about SXX. His was response was apparently one of hope that things progress, but that the existing cartel is both powerful and employing underhanded tactics to get spanners in the works. Does anyone have any views on what power, if any, our competitors have to truly dent our potential? Could they royally f*ck our chances? I am relatively sanguine, but talk of dark forces has cropped up a few times and I want to know what people know.

Skier, have you ever heard of contrarian investing?

It is a major strategy and a wonderful way to make money. If the boot fits (in this case, a world class product, a 100 years of proven reserves), then one gets greedy when the others fearful.

I expect more bad news on construction, because there is always bad news on construction. And if you hadn't noticed, even "blue chip" companies have experienced horrific issues of late, not least due to fraud and miscalculations in quarterly reports (apples latest botched forecast springs to mind).

If any single investor here, thought there would be no bumps in the road, they need to be carted off.

Now, if you care to establish your points properly, we can engage in meaningful debate.

Firstly, you say tunnel issues? Are you sure the re design was due to issues? Are you 100% certain?

Thanks Myo, eagle eyes. So it no longer says "within the coming weeks".

Might I have a shot in the dark. A few months ago, I queried the stringent response on twitter, if you recall when someone from the company responded to the question of "will there be any dilution" with "no it will be all debt".

I said to Sirius, why have you posted market sensitive information on Twitter, but not via an RNS? The response was "sorry, we meant to say, we are intending for it to be all debt".

I have also spotted corrections on their website, and occasionally mispellings through important documents. My conclusion is that unfortunately, I don't think there is a final checker in place for document quality control. So, I am not reading too much into it.

My guess, is that someone from compliance had spotted a marketing mistake and it was rectified. Because, otherwise, it is material and sensitive information that is being changed again with no RNS. And if that is the case, then Fraser has an internal problem as well as a funding issue.

I can't wait either Alan. But let's be fair - we should have no time for people who speculate on why share prices are moving on a daily basis. But we should always welcome critic of potential structural issues (such as Cibra, Euro Torp, construction and of course stage 2).

Whilst I am as bullish as the next guy, I am also a realist investor. I am willing to hold for 5 years and I hope to get 200-300% returns. So if I am due less, I may look elsewhere.

Please also don't make the mistake of thinking that buying shares supports a company, only buying its products does that.

I hope we are all avid and keen gardeners...

Thanks for your wisdom as always Myo.

May I ask, why is the Cibra deal giving people jitters in the short term? Don't these sort of corporate structures take time to iron out?

Is therr anything the company has said that is leading you to put a clock on it? (Direction to a presentation would be appreciated)

Thanks

Nojy,

Are you for real?

You expect Sirius to hold up when global bellwethers Amazon and Apple are getting spanked, and have been spanked all year long?

Look outside of one share price and you might sleep better.

Very disappointed in some of the comments here. Global markets have fallen sharply again, look at the DJ. Now, when equity markets sell off, it is known as "risk off" - and literally, the riskiest things are sold first. How is risk assessed? Primarily on cash flow and balance sheet strength, neither of which SXX has today. Long term holders should be getting boots and filling them.

Usual caveats apply (social media, fake news, stranger danger, DYOR etc).

I don't know about the MTS specifically, but the facebook groups Aand Twitter feeds I frequent, have recently thrown up rumours of construction advancing like a bullet.

Last week a guy who works in Whitby notes that he is mates with some of the SXX builders and that the site is roughly 2 months ahead of schedule.

There is no smoke without fire, but the proof will be in the pud. We shall see come the next update.

Thanks for the heads up on the get rich quick mining stock.

You note you are targetting "serious mining investors" - I would say I am not investing in SXX because it is a mining venture. I couldn't care less what it does as long as the thesis makes sense and returns are compelling.

Interesting Milo.

Happy to be proven wrong of course. But Rio Tinto is a £40bn market cap - with £40bn of revenues...

What is our peak revenue likely to be? £3-5bn depending on Poly4 bench prices?

NPV at full production (without dilution) is often cited at £2 to £2.50 a share, based on current cost of capital.

It may climb higher based on a "dividend premium". Speculation could say throw in some M&A and who knows.. £3 to £5?

Some really wild estimates on here in the past... £10 per share would give us a £40bn mkt cap... not unfathomable, but probably not probable...

A couple of guys who work on the site have been posting positive feedback about things on the facebook group recently. I am still holding by what I believe, we are ahead of schedule due to incentives and milestones. First Poly to come earlier than expected. Obviously, a nice cherry on this pie would be strat partner (and only a sniff of dilution). All my opinions.