It's hard to have a progressive dividend with a regressive business. Rico Back has 6 months to put a strategy together, because today's model doesn't work. April sees the second part of the pay deal kick in, and another £50 million off the bottom line. If the letter performance further deteriorates, it's going to get ugly.
The last 2 RNS's have had the key word commercial. How many barrels a day need to flow for this company to be investible. 1500 bod at $60 isn't enough, so what is?
The prospect of cost cuts and an extensive property portfolio had investors salivating over RMG's future. That didn't happen, so what do the next 5 years offer. Any major cuts now will only damage the business and its prime property estate is much reduced. With letter decline accelerating beyond their projections, Rico Black has to hope GLS can pull an almighty rabbit out of the hat.
I've been invested here for about one month now. In that time there has been an encouraging RNS, some valuable insight provided and a right load of old cobblers posted. I continue to view my purchase as a punt, I'm a lot more comfortable investing in FTSE 100 companies and trying to eke out a steady return. I hope this works out for everyone, in future I'll sleep easier putting my trust and funds under the likes of Bob Dudley than Steven Sanderson.
After two years of watching this story develop, I bought on Friday afternoon. My instinct says at last there is real substance here, but it's a punt and will try to enjoy the ride either way.
The bottom line is RMG could not afford the last pay deal. You have an ageing disenchanted workforce with bigger rounds. Letter decline is the real concern with signs it is escalating which will take a shredder to their forecasts. The really scary number is their sickness bill, over a £100 million a year which aint going down. For a company with a market cap of £3.2 bn that's 3%. I'd wager no other listed company comes close to that ratio.
Abby, I got it wrong! It's not a 12% increase, it's a 12.33% pay rise. Go to the CWU website, press release Feb1, 2018. Take it up with the the union if your not happy, I'm losing the will to live.
allyb77. I'll do this really slowly, because your obviously not the sharpest tool in the box. 7% pay rise over 2 years, I hour off the working week over the next 2 years equates to another 5%. Your union spun this as a 12% increase. It sounds like you're not aware of this. Nothing wrong with cleaning toilets, it's people with their head down them I have a problem with.
The union spun this deal as a 12% pay rise. If you can't do the maths, get someone to help you. No point bellyaching here cos ur management and union aren't up to it.
On the day the shorter working week is implemented, RMG release a trading update saying its UK productivity is significantly below plan. The timing is interesting, its not a profit warning and they've never issued a RNS before at this stage, 7 weeks pre interims. The UK business is treading water at best, posties planning to sell their shares will feel aggrieved at the hit imposed. RMG have shown with the timing of the press release, it is of little concern to them.
Between the intra day high of yesterday and the intra day low of today, the fall is over 7%. November interims will be the first results to show what impact Rico Black has had on the company. The letter performance in the last results unnerved the market, he needs some of the GLS sheen to bear fruit.