Member Info for Charlie156

Remember the message from our leader Roxi, JSE will be debt free in 2025, which will also see buybacks and dividends paid to shareholders.

Fiscalized production over the last 3 days from both fields of 29,583 bpd. Superb.

Big jump in buybacks last 2 days, indicates a spare bit of cash knocking about, which today's Q1 update backs up.

What a great platform for the rest of the year. The rock solid finances reassure in these uncertain times. Nightmare trying to make a large purchase this morning.

This business is all about Kounrad, where the EBITDA margin in 2024 was 73%, compared to SASA's 35%. With the price of copper in Q1, that differential has only widened. The share price has more than halved since the SASA acquisition, it has destroyed shareholder value.

That's Q1 25 production of 23.050 bpd at a Brent average of $75.73, against Q4 24 production of 19,142@$74.73. As in the last quarter, I used my BP dividend to buy PTAL shares today.

Roxi, for the last 2 years since the shares were in the mid 50's, you have been telling people on a daily basis what a great investment JSE is, and claiming to be buying on a weekly, if not daily basis. Anyone who followed your incessant drivel would be sitting on a substantial loss. Any person with any integrity would have stopped the daily ramping, sold up or at a minimum kept quiet. I don't believe a word you say, I used to think you were just an eejit, bot you are far more malevolent than that .

Roxi, if they bring in a Stoopid Tax, you should be very concerned.

The market expects a minimum 9p final dividend, if not, the SP will tank. They should also announce a 10% buyback, which will still see the company with net cash of $40m, at present metal prices, at year end 25. Management need to get their finger out, shareholder value has been destroyed since the North Macedonian acquisition.

With $20bn of divestments announced with the accelerated move away from renewables and billions more of cost savings, shareholders will see buybacks cut, a 4% dividend increase and net debt reduced to $14-18bn. My gut reaction is 'Is that it!'.

MA seemed very emotional at the end of Q&A, on the verge of tears. The speakers were all competent, but they are out of synch with what the market wants, yesterday was a missed opportunity. BP will continue to plod along, a steady investment , but very much in the second division of oil majors.

Roxi, drinking at lunchtime, having a few more tonight, as well as the bubbly that you opened pre- market. You seem to be drinking a lot more these days. Any connection with JSE?

Malaysian production was 5455bpd in H1 24. Current production is 4400bpd. With just Skua coming on board around the mid year point, those guidance figures for 25 could be a challenge.

King Suarez, finance costs were $19.5m for H1 24, with net debt of $69m. Net debt has now jumped to $105m at year end. What is your figure for finance costs for FY24?

Finance costs are over $40m a year, forget about a dividend in the near term. As ever, the oil price will determine the timeline here. The JSE business model was taking assets off the majors and running them down efficiently. That is not happening, 40% of production at Montara and Stag is dragging the company down, the opex costs for those fields reflects very poorly on management. Net debt at H1 25 will be lower, but it's going to be a painfully long process, with oil @$75.

There won't be anything happening to the SP with these numbers. H1 25 trading update will be pivotal. Opex costs for Sinphu in 25 are $2boe, Akatara $9boe, CWLH $24boe, and PM is a low cost producer, yet group opex guidance for 25 is nearly $40boe. Montana and Stag continue to eat i JSE's margins. Current opex at Stag is $82 a barrel and rising, the dilemma is with costs constant and production decline they need costly uneconomic infills to extend it's field life and delay abandonment.

Net debt was $95m at the end of Aug 24. Production has jumped since then and the oil price fallen back. They have had intermittent production from Akatara over the last 4 months of 24, and the final payment of $19m for CWLH was paid. If from that, they are cash positive at the end of 24, you are indeed The Chosen One.

Market will want to see a clear pathway to debt reduction and more data on Akatara, i.e in the 8 weeks of 25, have they delivered the daily contracted rate. The best news would be the sale of Stag, there must be someone lower than us in the food chain who would take it. If they got an offer of $1, they should bite their hand off.

Bob, will you stop boring the pants off everyone. I can't describe the deflation, when I come on here and see there are 4 posts, only to find 3 of them are from you.

Geopolitical risks have always been a part of investing in CAML, and the higher dividend was needed to attract investors, but the SP is in irrational territory.

Finance costs were circa $40m in 24, so rapid deleveraging of the balance sheet is key, which needs Akatara to have minimal downtime. Stag is a basket case, and needs to be addressed. Montana's opex in 25 should reduce from $60 a barrel, but in this price environment will not be coining it. The rest of the portfolio is in reasonable shape, is the new unproven management team and in particular the recently appointed CFO, with the dodgy CV, fit for purpose.