The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
One nugget I noticed is BP moving forward with concept selection for Kaskida in the GOM. Discovered in 2006, estimated at holding 3 billion barrels, the technology now exists to develop this ultra deep field.
I guess the market is saying without the exceptional gas trading of Q1, the numbers would have been quite ordinary. I'm scratching my head on how the US majors made so much money on a sharply lower oil price in Q1 23, compared to Q1 22. There's a bit of ego in the results as well, with BP determined to keep the consecutive quarters of falling debt going. Whereas, if they had maintained the buyback at $2.75bn, the net debt would only have increased from $21.4bn to $22bn, and the market reaction would not have been as harsh. As ever the oil price is the main driver here, at $100 the shares are cheap, $80 fair value and $60 expensive.
Solid numbers, but the market won't like the reduction in buybacks.
27.04.23 Copper $8571 tonne(27.04.22 $9935)
Zinc $2609($4314)
Lead $2120($2358)
Still making money, but margins have been slashed, with costs rising fast.
Well that's the latest one finished. 455.1 million bought at an average of £5.326, 2.5% of the ordinary share capital. Q1 23 Brent oil price was $21 a barrel lower than Q1 22. My hunch is BP has done all the heavy lifting with debt reduction with buybacks and dividends now taking priority.
Good to see Penguins still putting all the cretins and toe rags to the sword here. Good work.
Digging up someone's old posts to make a cheap point is poor form. How much money have you made out of your investment here.
Interest rates were near zero during the pandemic, which aided the share price recovery from its lows. Buying this in a rising rates environment always felt a bit risky for me, however cheap on paper it looked. There is maybe one interest rise left, and by the end of 23 could well be halved. That will attract buyers en masse to NEX.
JG, you mistimed your 170 purchase, we've all done that. Your other buys make sense, and I think over the medium term will be rewarded.
This is a buying opportunity, why are you moaning to IR.
The inflation rate at the end of 23 will have fallen sharply, some commentators suggesting 3%. A pre-emptive £30m buyback at these levels is affordable, logical and earnings enhancing.
The hushed words going round Turkish baths presently are 'Buy UKOG!'
My take is CAML continues to be well run and make money, but they are making a lot less money than Jan-Apr 22 due to the exceptional metal prices from then. Sasa H2 22 profits were hit due to weaker metal prices and the ending of the electricity contract which cost them over $5m for H2. There was a 15% pay award across the group that was masked by the denar weakening 12% against the dollar and the tenge 8%. That is unlikely to happen this year. Kounrad is a great business, if they find something remotely similar, the shares would take off, but as the search goes on, it's proving a challenging task. Another Sasa style purchase leaves me less enthused, but in this market you'd take it.
So far, the market reaction to the TU has been less favourable than the dividend reinstatement that came with the FY results. The SP then fell after the dividend announcement, whereas I think this will on further consideration make solid progress.
Good to see revenue growth across all parts of the business. Why could they have not done the same with the change in costs. We all want to know what the profit margins are doing.
I've recently bought in here. My gut says there is a lot of interest from private investors, but institutions don't want to know. That can change, but it would be interesting to hear their reasoning. With an upcoming Q1 update, that should comfortably exceed Q1 22 that might be the catalyst, but then again I thought the dividend announcement would do that.
I've been monitoring Paddy's buys, so I can answer that. £1.94(excluding dealing costs)
MC, I'm really enjoying the book your writing on here about your trading history and philosophy.
Marineclark just makes it up as they go along.
Sentiment is shot to pieces here, most of it self inflicted. The company have very good assets, not least Stag, which with the current premium is producing 4000boe/d at $110 a barrel. The market will need to see evidence of reliable production, which will take time. One for the patient.