Member Info for Charlie156

Https://www.mobilityplaza.org/news/42375

Macca, you're really milking the 'Dog of a share' references. I disagree, holding BP over the medium term could prove to be the Dog's Boll***s.

JSE should be in full recovery mode now, but the market to date is unmoved. Akatara and Skua add 10,000boe/d and production for the foreseeable should be circa 24,000boe/d. At $65 oil, making a return for shareholders is going to be a challenge. They have to reduce costs, opex per barrel is still far too high. They had to sell Sinphuhorm, a profitable and low cost business for $40m, because of their weak balance sheet and the increase in the cost for Skua by $40m. The portfolio is in reasonable shape, save for Stag, which even with the premium loses money. Oil is predicted to be lower in 2026, so it will continue to drain company resources. They should lance the boil, and close the field asap. They have 5 years to pay the decommissioning costs which will be onerous, but the group finances would be transformed.

Scotiabank are the only one I've seen to put out a production number from Bumerangue, and @550,000boe/d, that's quite a number. Kaskida in the GOM, is projected to produce 80,000bpd, so if Scotiabank are in the right ball park, BP has a material asset that the market has failed to value, beyond a 1-2% tick up.

The Bumeranque find does give potential suitors more than a little nudge. Shell in particular has its own future production issues and after it bought BG has a big offshore Brazilian business, so it's a strategic fit.

Taking the midpoint of updated FY 25 guidance, production of 20,500boe/d and opex costs of $260m, I have costs per boe increasing. Taking best case scenario production of 21,500boe/d and opex of $240m, I get costs per boe plateauing from H1. They sold Sinphuhorm in April which isn't going to help.

Deeko, can you show the maths behind opex per barrel falling to $27, and the FY26 revenue $610 number. I'm missing the rationale behind the special dividend, with net debt at HY of $107m and today's oil price indicating that its reduction will be slow and arduous.

First of all JSE has to demonstrate it can make money. They got $77 a barrel for their oil in H1 25, and Akatara performed above expectations, yet net debt increased. H2 25 to date, oil averages $70, and is trending lower. The market is sceptical, its up to JSE now to show otherwise.

JSE have shown themselves to be very adept at spending the cash, its the other side of the ledger that gives the market the heebee geebees.

Speedy, you continually post about the inevitability of gold reaching $4k/Oz, as others have posted that this share will hit £4 imminently. Each claim should be treated with caution.

The opening remarks from SD on the July 29 webcast were concerning the new guidance numbers, and the words prudent and conservative were spouted. The IPO figures 5 weeks previously lacked the same rigour, and the market has spoken.

Moy, my layman interpretation is BP are far more aware of the challenges the field presents, than they have revealed so far. Birrell has been too long in the game, and goes against his character to be so bullish.

Https://geoexpro.com/bumerangue-what-are-the-implications-of-drilling-into-one-of-the-most-structurally-complex-areas-of-the-santos-basin/

Prudent management as ever, but with the reduction in guidance and sober tone, I expect the shares to take a hit today.

In today's Q&A Gordon Birrell referenced the Jupiter field, which is also in the Santos basin. Discovered in 2008, it is earmarked to begin production in 2028, and had a far bigger CO2 issue to resolve. BP should benefit from the technical advances made in the industry.

The market would be more receptive to a 10% dividend hike. If you trimmed the buybacks by $75m a quarter, it would be cash neutral.

Don't worry about MH01, he was posting on results before the ASX opened that he expected a 10% rise in the share price. He had an hour to digest the press release and missed the salient points. No insight, no investor nous, just loves the sound of his own voice.

Well, it beats an RNS saying BP have bid twice as much as the next highest offer for some North Sea offshore wind project.

Https://www.ft.com/content/f793e403-904b-47e6-9749-9e20a4aa9173

BP's largest hydrocarbon discovery in 25 years. Good start in an important week.