When CAML posted results on April 1, copper was $4774 a tonne. Today it's over $6000, with zinc and lead also showing double digit increases. They stopped the dividend, due to Covid-19 and the possibility of their mines closing. On April 1, Kazakhstan/N.Macedonia reported380/354 cases and 3/11 deaths. Today those figures are 21,819/6334 and 188/302. The numbers are escalating, and the risk to their mines has not gone away. I'm struggling to see how they can restart their dividend, if that's the case.
RMG holding up quite well today. I think the carnage and bloodbath is being kept for tomorrow. UKPIL is a complete mess, its cost base for its revenues is far too high, and I can't see it being addressed anytime soon. To borrow a golfing analogy 'parcels are for show, letters are for dough'
Teslo, I always recommend Redceo posts. For someone with his singular lack of self awareness, a guaranteed car crash is sure to follow. As for emmjane/fruitster, I noticed on the BT forum they were posting about their market expertise. The resulting evisceration by a poster already tired of their BS was a joy. That didn't take long!
RE: Smart money is Buying Oil Stocks BP01 Jun 2020 15:39
Weebadbaz, I'm not overthinking this. I'm investing on the basis of the dividend and oil and share price. Worst case scenario, BP cut the dividend by 50%, and these yield 5%. Oil at $38 supports the present dividend. These numbers work for me. Each to their own though. Actually worst case scenario would be a Macondo 2, but I've been through one of those already and witnessed the company get rinsed.
RE: Smart money is Buying Oil Stocks BP01 Jun 2020 08:29
Brent $38, BP £3.10. Market anomalies like this should be snapped up. Supply and demand coming into synch. Demand down 30 million barrels in April, 25 million in May, 15 million projected for June. Supply being cut 13 million in June. Russia and Saudi Arabia cannot function with oil priced at $35.
Lead up 5% today, copper up 3%, over $5400 per tone. CAML said in conference call on April 1 they were still profitable with copper at $4800 per tonne. Get through this quarter with the mines still open and I'd expect some welcome news on the final dividend they pulled.
Sorry if my last post was not clear. The declared dividend for Q1 will be paid on June 19. There has been much conjecture on future dividends and with low oil and gas prices to date in Q2 and with gearing likely to be over 40%, I'd factored in a 50% cut. However, with prices recovering strongly and the $5 billion disposal of its Alaskan assets in June, BP could comfortably pay its dividend. Who knows where we will be in 6 weeks!
If the oil price keeps rising like this BP's dividend is becoming securer by the day. Remember the $35 a barrel target includes the payment of the dividend. Halfway through the quarter, these shares continue to offer value to investors and traders.
Since lockdown the constant message on here has been it's like Xmas everyday with parcels. What wasn't put forward was that regarding letters, it was like Armageddon everyday. Rico has gone but your still left with the same proposition, since the IPO, the UKPIL cost base is way out of synch with its revenues. Remember, in terms of profit, you need £2 in parcel revenue to replace £1 in letter revenue. The decline in the business has accelerated since the year end. Cash flow is starting to worry me and the Board have to get the next appt right. I'd pay whatever is needed to get Kate Swann.
It's been a lousy couple of years but can't fault the management, just declining metal prices. In those 2 years debt has been reduced greatly and once metals return to a stabler pricing environment, these shares will motor. The mines remain open and I'd expect dividends to resume in October. Hang in there!
Just to point out BP is well on the way to achieving the balance point of $35 per barrel. It was $56 less than two years ago. BP is a far leaner and efficient animal than Shell. Macondo defined the culture of BP, and out of that tragedy it sold oil assets at over $100 a barrel, to pay those outrageous fines and increase production, which is now bearing fruit.That $35 includes the dividend. Still, you cannot ignore the debt on the balance sheet, and with gearing over 40% in Q2, I've penciled in a 50% dividend the next quarter. Two months is a long time in the oil game, so who knows, but best to be prudent.