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Over the weekend I’ve been Googling for good studies on medium-longer term zinc price forecast. All I can find are short term forecasts related to zinc price low due to CV. Does anyone have any links to good zinc market articles, etc? Appreciated

Hi Extrader,

NCCL has certainly tested my patience - but in hindsight, it was my own naivety that expected quicker progress from such a huge power / infrastructure, project. Since GE and CMEC came on board the project, it seems that Hanno's communicated timeline has remained on track. The 15th April 2020 RNS states the following timeline:
• Key target milestones for Q2 2020:
o Tariff negotiation concluded with EDM
o Shareholders agreement term sheet concluded
o Engineering, Procurement and Construction (“EPC”) contract in agreed form o Ncondezi historical costs audit completed
• Key target milestones for H2 2020:
o Power Purchase Agreement (“PPA”) in agreed form with EDM
o Power Concession Agreement (“PCA”) in agreed form with Ministry of Mineral Resources
and Energy (“MIREME”)
o Shareholder agreement entered into
• Project Financial Close is targeted for H1 2021

So I expect the SP to start gaining upward momentum as the EPC, PPA and PCA are signed off in H2 this year.

I truly believe that Exxons recent decision to shelve their proposed $30bln LNG project in Mozambique due to collapsed gas prices, will make the Moz Government do everything in their power to ensure that NCCL project remains on track. This was to be Mozambiques (Africa's?) principal energy project. This LNG project mothballing will surely increase government urgency to get on and build the NCCL coal project, as a dependable power supplier in the countries energy mix.https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/exclusive-coronavirus-gas-slump-put-brakes-on-exxons-giant-mozambique-lng-plan-2020-03-20. I have a friend working in the Mox energy sector (O&G), and apparently the Exxon decision has indeed got the Moz Gov focused on more viable near term projects, NCCL. So this is very positive for NCCL, and could even provide a tailwind for project completion.

To me, NCCL has many similarities to ZIOC - so much potential value, but in a slow burn timeframe. As a very substantial holder of ZIOC and NCCL, I think 2021 could be a very good year.

Hello Beardozer - I can sympathise, Im partial to a few drams of Speyside.

As a Geologist, ORR has been on my watchlist for quite some time. I really like the grass roots prospectivity of some of the individual projects, and thrill of the nano MC, but in this very selective market I just find ORR a bit too unfocused. I don't see that potential mega blockbuster project which current markets want. As ever, I'm very open to suggestion, so tell me what I'm missing, and I will have a rummage. Good luck. C7

Very interesting Extrader - I have been told in the past, that the Chinese don’t like to be rushed in negotiations, because they are still in process of learning international business ways. This is supported by your copied text “ First, Chinese companies do not have enough experience to internationalize. They lack investment experience and management experience abroad, they also lack a staff that understands technology, business practices and languages. ”.

The fact that the Chinese are very aware of their own weaknesses, means that they are super diligent. It also means that they throw huge human effort at the opportunity evaluation and negotiation (certainly my experience!). This means a lengthy and very thorough process leading up to closure. Remember that the Chinese aren’t just evaluating Zanaga in isolation, they are evaluating the grass roots SEZ project and outlying resource feed projects (Eg, Zanaga) - the scale of what they are about to pull off is truly remarkable.

This is not a stock for traders (thank god), but one for very patient investors. I have set myself an investment timeline of a ZIOC deal done by summer 2021, and the uplift in ZIOC SP will potentially be the biggest the UK stock market has ever seen. Am I in a rush? Nope. Nccl

If the Chinese want something, they will bid to win. However, they will not be dictated to. The Chinese will want negotiation pace and format on their terms. If another interested party steps in, I suspect Glencore would have to ensure that other party adheres to negotiation framework dictated by the Chinese.

Very positive that ZIOC Q1 RNS is very delayed! The Chinese may well have stipulated that ZIOC / GLEN cease all investor communications related to the Zanaga project, whilst sensitive negotiations are ongoing.

I’m also 99.9% certain that the COIDIC negotiating team will contain no members of the actual COIDIC RoC Team. Effective negotiating tactic that prevents any emotional attachments from defocusing key objective of buying cheaply as possible. Likely that Glencore would do same.

I suspect the people on this BB posting the 'why is it taking so long' comments, have no actual experience of negotiating large deals with the Chinese. Over the last ten years I have been involved with a number of $300-700mln oil & gas asset sales with the Chinese, some successful, some not, but the negotiating pattern is always the same:
1. If the Chinese really are not interested, they make that clearly known and walk away. The fact that COIDIC haven't walked away after many months is a very positive sign!
2. If the Chinese are genuinely interested, it is a very slow process involving all the tricks in the book. They will feign disinterest, and even pretend to walk from the deal, if they think that will drive down the purchase price (same tactics when we buy second hand cars). They always leave it for the seller to re-approach them, so that it makes the seller look desperate. The Chinese will go quiet for months, quietly waiting whilst the seller sweats it out.
3. When it comes to closing the deal, the Chinese will only do this face to face, and not via videoconference, etc. Just like the Russians, they use specially trained negotiators who want to see the whites of your eyes, and read your facial expressions and body language. So until CV-19 lockdown ends, and the relevant parties can sit around the same table, there will be no closure. I also follow NCCL and PFP with some interest, and they are in similar position - waiting to close deals with Chinese, and therefore waiting for CV-19 travel restrictions to end.

The fact that the Chinese are still interested, and that they are so involved with the bigger picture in RoC and SEZ, gives me a lot of confidence that a deal will land one day. The scale of that deal will be so huge for ZIOC, the timescale almost becomes irrelevant.

Vast Resources plc
(“Vast” or the “Company”)

Further Baita Plai Metallurgical Test Work Update
Progress on asset backed debt financing

Vast Resources plc, the AIM-listed mining company, is pleased to update the market on progress on metallurgical test work at its Baita Plai Polymetallic Mine “Baita Plai” in Romania and on its progress on asset backed debt financing.

Test work

Following the previous announcement made on 12 May 2020 regarding the Baita Plai Metallurgical Test Work, the Company can confirm it has now received the remaining Batch 2 Head Assay Results which offers further confirmation of higher gold and silver values. These new results now further confirm Vast’s increased insight into the expected gold and silver values in the working areas expected to commence production shortly and which should substantially increase the value of the saleable copper concentrate.

Table 1: Complete Batch 2 Head Assay Results

Element Sample 4 Sample 5 Sample 6 Unit
Cu 7.09 10.74 4.74 %
Pb 0.36 1.12 0.26 %
Zn 0.32 3.8 0.72 %
As 0.065 0.384 0.079 %
Cd 0.0065 0.0382 0.009 %
Ni 0.003 0.003 0.003 %
Co 0.008 0.009 0.011 %
Mn 0.26 0.39 2.74 %
Bi 0.2602 0.5794 0.1723 %
Sb 0.0103 0.0361 0.032 %
Hg <0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 %
Te 0.0018 0.0042 0.0016 %
Se 0.0025 0.0037 0.0031 %
SiO2 28.50 12.23 17.05 %
Al 1.22 0.59 1.02 %
Fe 3.66 4.11 3.63 %
Mg 10.13 9.55 12.71 %
Cr 0.03 0.02 0.03 %
Ca 11.38 14.04 12.92 %
S 4.31 7.15 4.19 %
Cl 0.08 0.09 0.11 %
F 0.02 0.02 0.02 %
WO3 0.065 0.048 0.13 %
Mo 0.046 0.031 0.29 %
Na 0.04 0.03 0.05 %
K 0.26 0.17 0.18 %
Au 3.10 4.42 2.17 g/t
Ag 206.8 372.7 127.4 g/t
The Company is extremely pleased with the initial indications from the test work on producing the copper concentrate and so far, the grades are greater than originally forecasted. It is expected that the underground drilling currently underway will further confirm the continuation of similar grades at depth.

The Company looks forward to providing further updates on the continuing drilling and assay results over the coming weeks.

Debt financing

The Company announces that negotiations with two institutional investors in relation to a non-equity linked asset backed debt structure linked to Baita Plai have now reached a well developed stage. Such financing would be used inter alia for refinancing the Tranche 1 Convertible Bonds issued to Atlas Special Opportunities LLC.

Due diligence to secure the financing has commenced and in order to expedite this the Company is now accelerating and expanding its drilling and metallurgical test work process. The Company looks forward to updating the market in due course on further developments regarding the refinancing.

Third Party Verification

The information in this announcement that relates to the metallurgical test work is based on information compiled by Grinding Solutions Limited. Grinding Solutions is an innovative and consultative company specialising in mineral libe

Excellent post Badeli - always impressed with your well reasoned musings. We are broadly aligned in our predictions. Im baffled as to why this largely derisked stock is so undervalued - is it because investors just don't understand it? Is it because it is coal? Is it because of the coming together of the largest US and China companies? Very interesting times, and I have enough invested here to buy several new mid-range cars, so fingers crossed. GLA

Well, no surprises - my £10k buy this afternoon has been hidden away on NEX as an ‘unknown’ transaction. Classic sign of MMs suppressing SP, ie, shaking out the weak hands.

THB - good question. Gut feel is that GE / CMEC will want NCCL out of the way soon as - NCCL bring nothing to the party. At a minimum NCCL are owed approx $60mln in back costs (I can’t remember exact figure) so that’s nine times Current market cap for starters. Based on the last RNS - net equity cash flows of $1.9Bln are expected over life of project (that’s net to NCCL) - my expectation is that Hanno would sell the project for 5-10% of that sum, so $100-200mln. Not bad for a £11mln MC company. There are some very knowledgable posters on this BB such as Badeli, TrustTheProcess, Extrader, etc - be interesting to hear what those guys think.

My £10k isn’t showing. Suppose naughty MMs will post it after market closes!

Be interesting to see how much of the placing Scott Fletcher has scooped up? TR1 soon?

This project is essentially derisked. I just topped up another £10k worth - thankyou sellers.

The only thing odd is that people people sold! Look at the numbers for a £11mln MC company.
* Projected average annualized EBIDTA of US$175 million (nominal terms)
* Estimated net equity cash flows are expected to be in excess of US$1.9 billion (nominal terms) over the 25 year life of the Project
* Estimated Ncondezi 40% net equity cashflows of US$799 million (nominal terms) over life of Project

NCCL are going forward on basis of 40% equity, but will very likely get bought out by GE / CMEC.

£11mln MC company with equity cash flow of US$799mln!!!!!!!!!!!

Lot of muppets on this BB don't understand infrastructure project economics!

Freedom16 - Apologies, I mentioned 'Kabwe', which is actually a JLP project (I was just looking at their website!). I actually meant to state 'Kash*tu' project (next to town of Kabwe). Ka****u is a typical CB project - already explored extensively and derisked by previous licence holders. High grade lenses of zinc sulphide exist at surface, but the big prize at Kash*tu is the very plausible existence of a deeper very high grade 'feeder system' ore body. Kash*tu has potential to dwarf value of Star Zinc.

Hello Freedom16 - Im an Exploration Geologist with 30 years experience in the resource sector. I started investing in GLR about two years ago. I mainly invest only in stocks I thoroughly understand (mining) - it is a sad hobby of mine to spend many, many hours studying geological maps / reports / core data ( a lot of which the public don't have access to!). I was drawn to GLR for four main reasons -
1) woefully undervalued,
2) diverse portfolio (more rolls of the dice),
3) I really like Colin Birds strategy of acquiring projects that are already fully explored / calibrated / volumetrically understood (saves huge risk and drilling costs),
4) There is no meaningful extraction / mining risk - unlike most AIM miners, GLR will not have to drill out incredibly expensive mine shafts, or supersized pits, on any of its key projects - the ore in most projects is sat at the surface ready to go:
A. Star Zinc - the very rich ore body is exposed at surface (you actually stand directly on the zinc body) - just dig it out and shovel into trucks.
B. Glenover - Seven years worth of mined material is already stockpiled at surface and ready for processing.
C. Kabwe - The motherload of tailings projects, ie, legacy mined material is sat at surface and ready for processing.
I know that a lot of folk like to criticise Colin Bird, but he is a very smart cookie, and listening to his many interviews - he obviously knows his rocks, and he always several steps ahead of everyone else when it comes to spotting deals and opportunities. If only one of these projects takes off, then I envisage a 500-1000% SP rise from the currently lowly price. However, because I have deep understanding of the rocks and resource volumes, and a good understanding of the evolving metals market dynamics, I truly believe that more than one of the GLR projects will come to fruition. I am happy to have amassed approx £80k of GLR stock at laughably low prices, and will be sitting on them for as long as it takes.
Always do your own research. Good luck.

Evening Gents - please can someone educate me. When these big buys are posted after hours, are they already factored into that days SP, or do they get factored into the following days SP?
Appreciated.

There is the possibility that your no.5 (Glenover sale, etc) happens first, and the cash injection gets wheels spinning on other projects.

HL will only allow small dummy buys of around £2000 max, so despite the big drop they aren't keen to sell shares in any volume. Wonder why?