Member Info for Caterham7

£316k buy! Another TR1 from Scott?

It’s going to be interesting to see what China’s position is.......

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-55276769

Prof - much appreciated, and extremely useful to have hard facts rather then finger in air speculation. I wrote a long response with detailed calculations, and then it disappeared due to errant finger!

In summary, the Indian royalty rates are at lower end of global range (2-5%), and the licence rents also appear low. So my email assumptions of last night were too conservative. I now think that if PAT negotiated a minority stake of 49%, they would end up with approx 40% net profit ownership of a potential 10mln ounce gold deposit and with a MC of £18mln. For comparison GGP (I have a very significant holding) yesterday announced a Havieron MRE of 4.2mln once (GGP only own 30%) yet have a MC of £1.16Bln. So PAT = 4mln net ounces with £18mln MC vs. GGP 1.26mln net ounces with MC of £1.16Bln. Yes, PAT much higher risk, but extreme value upside is very clear.

If someone does have time and inclination, it would be interesting to know what are the rent rates and royalty amounts. May be less than I have presumed.

Great research. My very simplistic take on what I have read here, is that the worst case scenario is that PAT end up with circa 30% net profit ownership of a 10mln ounce gold resource - 49% equity and paying circa 20% rent and royalties (pure guess - maybe someone smarter than I can provide accurate numbers). So that is net 3mln ounce gold with a market cap of only £18mln. Today GGP announced MRE of 4.2mln ounce and have a market cap of £1.16Bln, ie, over 100x greater than PAT. So even if we then consider PAT extra country / political risk, and fact GGP has other good targets in Patterson, it still looks like PAT is massively undervalued. If I'm being ultra ultra conservative, I would think that IF PAT secures assumed minority stake in Bhukia, the market cap has got to be worth at minimum 5-10% of GGP, ie, £50-110mln, ie, 3-7x current MC, and that is with very conservative assumptions.

CE - on 12th August I posted “ Typically they will get a quick EM early product within 1-2 weeks - this may provide early indications of major ore bodies, etc. The EM data will then be subjected to various types of processing to refine the image resolution. The timeframe for this depends on what they see in the early product, for example they may just decide to process / refine data over one portion of the area, or they may do so over the entire area. In the pre-covid world I would expect to receive fully processed final EM product in 2-3 months. ” So things so far moving at pace I predicted.

In answer to your question - how long will it take to evaluate? Well that depends on their exploration strategy / philosophy. Some companies will want to fully evaluate the entire licence area, other companies may choose to expedite by just performing detailed evaluation over specific highgraded features of interest. As a rough guesstimate (and not having personally seen the raw data), I would expect 4-8 weeks to evaluate (not allowing for festive hols!)

Colin Bird - if you read this - I would really like to see some of the raw uninterpreted EM data. Are you able to share some nice images on the GLR website?

Saint Tropez has suddenly gone very quiet after days of rampy posts

Up 22% on HL

There is going to be an exciting dash for the doors in EUA - will we all get our money out in timely manner, or will MM be swamped with sells! Ive top sliced £60k of EUA profit and invested £20k here.

SP holding up well after yesterdays 30% rise. Good to let the fickle hands move onto next rainbow.

M1122 - how do you know the main points are agreed?

I do hope there is lots of selling - I’m scooping!

No court judgement yesterday, and no RNS this morning - can only mean one thing - the two sides are negotiating. This is very positive, it means the Rajasthan Gov accept that PAT have a legal claim. As I said yesterday - RNS next week.

Yep - that is exactly my take on things. Hope so - just topped up another 50k shares! I think RNS next week.

OK - I stand corrected.

Court closes at 5pm local time (noon UK)
https://www.myvisitinghours.org/rajasthan-high-court-317

No update yet. Last judgement still listed as 4th December.

Where does the $3000 come from?

8th December is Tuesday, not Monday

I wonder if PAT publicly stating that Bhukia contains 10+ million ounces gold sets the bar for negotiations, ie, the other party knows what it is worth.