Member Info for Catbert

Their troubles stem from a mixture of bad luck/ inadequate resource drilling combined with the huge cost of having to change approach once they'd started to mine.

They couldn't deliver their production forecasts once they ran into difficulties. If production goes to hell then so does cash flow.

Once you mine you inevitably have way way larger costs and cash burn than an explorer. A miner and an explorer might be in the same sector but they are two very different businesses.

In simpler terms they didn't understand the disposition of their ore body well enough (it is a complex ore body with a huge variability in grade and thickness).

The expensive bit is mining.

This is why exploration projects so often don't get financed. If you suddenly stop getting the grades and thickness that you'd anticipated it can go South quickly.

It's sad but I don't see what it's got to do with AYM.

I'm not sure what a chart will tell you here. There is so little volume too that even if you believe that charts work surely the sample size of trading data is just too thin to really give statistical meaning to anything.

A news item could spike or tank the share at any time. This isn't BT or BP is it?

I mean a pair of silicone breast implants might look good on your girlfriend but there isn't much point in buying a pair for your goldfish is there.

It has to be the same with charting this stock -surely it's just overkill.

Wise thoughts. I would agree that steering clear of sentiment is sensible.

This is not driven by sentiment however. There is no leak either as far as I'm aware. Most investors won't be prepared to do the research here which is required and ideally investors would have some understanding of the Geology of Ireland. The Tellus survey has data which is in the public domain and which can be plotted onto the three Irish licence areas (use and Irish Grid though or you'll be wondering why they were taking soil samples in the sea).

The fact that parts of Ireland were actually parts of Labrador in previous geological eras is part of the story too. If Ireland wasn't so covered in glacial till and peat it would have emerged as a major mining area long ago. The Voisey bay comparison isn't to far fetched. Indeed Voisey bay was discovered by diamond exploration.

The Diamond side is already well advanced with numerous kimberlite targets identified and unusually Finland has an exceptionally high hit rate for diamondiferous kimberlites (something approaching 50%). It is also just over the border from two large Russian Daimond mines. Nothing is guaranteed here, however the prize if we have a major diamond area is off the scale financially. To encourage us they have located a green diamond in till and they know the direction of Iceflows and have some idea of the possible source.

One of the insiders has come in at 4p for a fairly large sum. I doubt he's done that on the basis of sentiment.

This is all still hugely speculative at the moment nonetheless and won't be one for widows or orphans. The upsides however are stratospheric if the Prof and his team can pull it off in either location.

Voisey Bay is worth Billions, a new diamond district would be the same.

Am I a sentimental dreamer? Hell yes!

However I'm invested because I like the risk / return odds and I'm willing to wait for years if necessary.

GLA/ DYOR

Thanks for correcting me there DeathStranding. I do get ahead of myself rather too often.

The Tellus soil sampling is available publicly and can be downloaded. If you plot the anomalous copper readings onto an Irish Grid map a very interesting pattern emerges.

I'm not sure who put all that copper there or even if it is enough to substantiate any excitement, however there is a trend revealed by the shallow soil sampling of the Tellus survey showing a > 100mg/kg copper anomaly which follows our licence package. I wonder what a deeper sample would yield?

The only two explanations that I can think of for this is that either it is the result of some geological process or that it's the little people up to some sort of mischief.

Interesting point Fairview, although if Deathstanding is correct one must assume that either those ancient copper miners of yore must have found absolutely feck all or that "copper mining" was what they told their Mrs.they were doing when they were in fact popping out for sneaky a pint.

GLA DYOR

Kefi has been discussing this project with these lenders for 3.5 years.

They have negotiated all of the preconditions that these banks required.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Development_finance_institution

Although this isn't a rubber stamping process it seems that the worst outcome at this stage would be that one of the banks adds some additional criteria to their requirements which although possible seems unlikely given that they've had 3.5 years to set these.

Furthermore the project itself has an enormous significance for the development of both a major economic sector for the country and also for foreign earnings of a nation with a tremendous growth potential.

In many regards the financing deal is a political as well as an economic decision which should hugely benefit Ethiopia.

Understanding how development banks work and what they do is critical to understanding where we stand here.

GLA DYOR

As a holder here there are plenty of things that you should be doing right now;

1. Sleeping.

2. Fishing.

3. Something on the list of chores your Mrs. keeps badgering you about (maybe not).

4. More sleeping.

5. Did I mention fishing?

6. Enjoying the sunshine.

7. A little catnap perhaps?

8. Sipping a nice cool something or other.

9. Dreaming about a nice big hit at Mbe .....

10. Zzzzzzz.

Wake me up when there's an RNS and the traders have come back. All this excitement has worn me out. Nice post by the way Kutzz. Those zeds remind me. I think I need a little rest.

Let's assume that Clontibret is not the main prize. If it were we'd have drilled it to a mineral reserve status by now.

Is Orlock Bridge Faultline an accretionary wedge? If so what is the Skullmartin trend telling us and that zone of Zinc mineralisation? Do we have a Back Arc or something akin to this and if so where is the Copper? The Bingham Canyon of Ireland alluded to on our website (well plainly stated in fact).

Our Turkish friends are not playing. We have serious geologists on the team and we have a macro setting which is not unlike that in which the Copler deposit was laid down.

The demeanor of the Geos in that last video was not unlike a dog with two tails. The gold grades were pretty exciting but any person of learning goes by the process of "If...then?" Until we have proof of the theoretical possibilities perhaps it's better not to alert the competition. Sure some of our original findings were refractory however that isn't the case with the new finds. The new gold finds are exciting, however the possible optionality if there is a significant copper ore body in the mix is off the scale. It's a long shot right now but yet remains a theoretical possibility. Getting permission to mine copper will be easier than gold.

I may be fooling myself. It wouldn't be the first time. Perhaps the Prof is silent and the news flow suppressed because more time is needed. I continue to hold here as I'd like to know the answers to these questions.

GLA DYOR

Here's why it won't be done in a hurry;

1. In CGNR and here there are two classes of investors. Insiders and PIs. The insiders know what is happening but are restricted as to when they can trade and the PIs who are kept in the dark most of the time unless a raise is needed in which case the share price is bolstered by releasing news. CGNR has just done 6000m of drilling and they've released almost no data on results apart from one drill core and some ground sample data.

2. In some cases it is in the interests of the PIs for information not to be released. For example if we find that a deposit is likely to extend beyond the boundary of our licence area and we need to secure added licences (without a competitor entering the fray).

3. In some instances where we might need to engage with a third party the third party might wish for us to control the news flow again there are a multitude of possible reasons for this such as issues which may relate to securing permissions to mine. Opponents to mining have more leverage if they know that you have something. If, however it is merely a hypothetical "if we should happen to find something" getting permissions can be easier.

I am not expecting a quick anything in Finland. In Ireland however we might not be too far away from something exciting.

In conclusion these folks hold PIs in contempt but I can understand why. Besides our use for raising the initial funds we are not contributors to advancing the projects we are just a pain in the butt who have to be managed.

If you want news watch what the insiders are doing and draw your own conclusions, but get used to waiting for a long time. Hopefully it will be worthwhile. Here one insider wanted in at 4p. My assumption is that he knows a lot more than I do. Most people do.

GLA DYOR

The selling is easy to understand- not that I'm doing so.

1. Sell on news. We've had the news (some always sell on the news) because the bored will drift away with the price until the next news item drops.

2. The news is more related to de-risking the project rather than monetizing it. Bulk sampling has the scope to go horribly wrong for a company if the smaller scale studies cannot be replicated. Its literally the difference between a viable project and a disaster. Thank goodness we have not had the latter.

3. Some follow the trend (they buy the rising and sell the falling).

I'm just going to wait and hold here as the project is now de-risked in terms of the viability for bulk processing.

The scale of the project is such that it could supply both China and the USA.

If we can now get a DFS completed and some off take agreements signed or possibly a JV signed then we'll have the monetisation event(s) that holders are looking for.

Oram Cross looks to me as if it is a Tier 1 deposit. Traders can trade, I don't mind and I'm happy to hold as the potential for a multibag event is now stronger. IMHO.

One expects some profit taking at this point, however many would also consider a large scale de-risked project (re bulk processing potential) to be a good entry point too.

GLA DYOR.

I was watching an old interview with Pierre Lassonde with his Franco Nevada hat on and he was asked what type of projects he was really excited about.

His answer, Large Copper Gold deposits.

Hopefully we have at least one of these.

Thinking about what might be happening is maddening sometimes especially when one is invested however I have decided to be patient.

Instinctively I would like them (Demir) just to do a fukton of drilling (an old imperial measurement equivalent to the modern "shed load").

However the more I think about this the more it seems apparent to me that the process Demir and the Prof and his team are engaged in isn't resource drilling so beloved of the Canadians where it is all about putting drill meters into an Ore body or potential Ore body.

Instead what I believe is happening is that they are engaged in an investigation which is more about proof of concept (the proving and disproving of theories) after all we have at least two different styles of mineralisation. If they can develop and prove very accurate theories related to how and where the ore bodies are deposited then they should be able to develop these ideas into indicators about where to drill for maximum effect.

Frankly this isn't something which they can share with us as there'd be an outrage about their previous promises to build a mine.

The issue in part for all is that the areas we have to explore are vast so developing a theory about the structural controls and mineralogical indicators for deposition is an essential part of the process. We have at least two deposit types so we have added complexity.

At present we have a dark street 65 Km long where we have 5 or 6 working streetlights. We have to work out what is happening in the whole street and then find all of the houses with a green door. We can either fix all the streetlights or find out what the process was for deciding which door was to be painted green. Speaking to the painters and decorators who finished the houses is probably quicker and less expensive than fixing all the lights. If the decorators tell us they painted all the houses doors which had a number divisible by 5 green then assuming we know where these houses are we only need to fix a few lights to prove the theory.

When they speak about "technical drilling" I believe that this is what they mean. They are proving or disproving their assumed control parameters. Once they have done this they will know where the gold is.

Most of you know the story about the old bull and the young bull and the field of cows.. ......

In conclusion a proven theory is worth more than a Fukton of drilling. This is how we find the best deposits and this is also how Demir and the Prof can engage outside investors and JV partners. We don't need to drill it all we just need to prove beyond doubt how the gold got there and validate our theories related to the structural and mineralogical controls for our two deposit types.

My guess is that we must be more or less there by now.

Https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/991986/alien-metals-appoints-experienced-mining-executive-roderick-mcillree-as-its-executive-chairman-991986.html

Thanks Beardozer!

I may be the deranged face of optimism here but my investment thesis is relatively simple.

We have a market cap of £4.5m

We have a free carry at Senala for $4m (Managem could have wriggled out of that but wanted to go forwards-the thesis is partly an assumption that they know more than I do) we have already found some good grades and widths there and have a resource of 150koz ish.

Bibemi is a possible small mine project already and will be near enough to 500koz by December at good grades too with a lot of expansion potential.

Mbe has bonanza grades already and we haven't drilled it yet. If we only had this asset I'd pay money to know the answer and be a holder for this reason alone.

Add to this elephant oil and the legacy Turkey monies.

Then back to our share cap. Is all of the above worth more than £4.5m? For me yes, a lot more and if we get good hits with the drill then silly multiples of £4.5m.

I would be very careful with Gcat. They cannot transfer the licences for Kenya to a third party from what I understand and they are very opaque about production numbers. The MD heinously mislead shareholders about funding (he knew the terms of the deal they'd been offered and wasn't prepared to take them but nonetheless lead holders on on the assumption that all was well until he pulled out and then the share price crashed- he blamed the terms which he knew all along). When you have FDs resigning around these sorts of things then you must question corporate governance standards. If they are not publishing monthly production numbers by now I wouldn't go near it. It is easy to go broke running a mine. PI's will be the last to know. Their operation eats cash and fast. If they turn it around you might do well but I personally wouldn't trust the management ( I did hold and sold). They are at a bargain price now and I haven't kept up with the latest news. In all honesty there are a lot better prospects out there IMHO (not that I'm an expert).

GLA DYOR

Continued ......a bunch of twits or worse. GLA DYOR

what will impact the share price in a positive way?

news of course and yes even without funding we are on a $4m free carry at senala with 2000m of drilling scheduled for this year. if you want to cheer yourself up a little bit look at the grades we've had over there in the past.

https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/oriole_resources/news/regulatory_news/story/x5znp2x/export

bibemi looks like we can quickly add to the resource of 305,000 by an additional 45-150,000 oz plus we have an exceptional hit rate with the drill there. the horizontal geometry of some elements of the mineralisation is a winner. a couple of drills will yield an easy expansion of the jorc plus there is a lot more at lawa east which looks very promising.

if we can get funding at mbe we have a bonanza grade trend to explore. the funding is a news item in itself.

this is all going to take longer than most of us hoped and the share price stinks right now however we have three big targets to explore and we don't need to raise for a couple of years. the money to keep the lights on had to come from somewhere.

the raging diatribes against the board might be good therapy and i understand that many are well under water here (me too). the most recently deleted posts seemed more like a simple case of personal abuse. i'm glad they were removed.

the board have to make choices to move us forward and they have no cash to do so without raising funds. they are damned if they do and damned if they don't. however we simply cant just wait it out for money from turkey or elephant oil to arrive and twiddle our thumbs in the meantime.

people can ***** all they like about lanstead but what were the alternatives?

the price was in the doldrums so they did what was necessary and now the pressure is on for the results to come in. the board is betting on positive future news flow and it seems a reasonable gambit to me.

what has been done is done. i've bought a few more. yes crazy. we have to get after the prizes as we are and move as fast as we can go.

if you want the price to increase we'll need new buyers and new investment from existing holders.

every time a raise happens with one of these stocks the bulletin boards go nuts and the share price tanks for a bit. we have that plus rainy season.

one final point is that the tone of the bulletin board will shape the research being done by new pi's. i'm not saying don't be honest but i am saying, please just think about what you are posting and how it will impact the values of your own holding and others here. if you really feel angry why not just write to them directly and tell them your thoughts rather than post the worst of them here for public consumption. if someone were to give you some negative feedback wouldn't you rather have that as a private aside?

we need to help ourselves and hope for a bit of luck.

it may sound like an unconvincing strategy but it will work better than calling the board

The other simplest explanation is that Demir are doing the drilling and they are doing the drilling for the purposes of satisfying their own interests. Demir has no responsibility to shareholders of Conroy. They have set out on their own website exactly what their process is. They have no obligation to report on progress to us. Furthermore the Prof has no need to do anything to chivvy the share price along as he doesn't need to raise money. Deathstranding you may be correct in that they have found nothing of note however this isn't the only explanation. The other explanation is that they have found a considerable amount of note and they are well on the way to some sort of corporate transaction or perhaps some point in between these two outcomes.

If things were so bad I'd wonder why we had a new investor and also why Demir has recently decided to credit our project on their website. What does Occam's razor say about that? My guess would be a more positive one. In truth none of us really knows.

GLA DYOR

Good points Kutzz!

The hullabaloo about Lanstead might be put into perspective by this point.

People seem to forget what stakes we are playing for here.

Chesser sold out for $89m Aussie or about £45m when their project is a 704Koz resource with a 7.5 year mine life on a hard to believe $820 ASIC (USD).

We are not far off that mark at Bibemi, but we also have Mbe and Senala to add to the optionality.

One other point to note as highlighted by Slowly Slowly is that Lanstead do not need to sell shares to fund the payments to Oriole. Indeed if we can do some kind of corporate transaction as Chesser did then the upside for all of us, Lanstead included is multiples of the current investment holding.

The case where Lanstead is best served to divest is where the future of the company is on the slide and where they do not see an investment return on their holding. Even then, however they would need to be careful not to collapse the price quickly as they would be damaging themselves.

The danger for all of us is a situation where Lanstead turns bearish on Oriole and begin aggressive selling to reduce their anticipated losses.

Paddy and Mick two Irish airline pilots have been told to land at Hong Kong airport and they are told that it's a very short runway so they're instructed to come in steep and wack the breaks on as soon as they hit the ground. The pair come to a sceeching halt inches from the end of the runway. Stepping out of the plane the Paddy and Co pilot Mick look at the end of the tarmac just in front of them, wiping sweat from their brows.

"Jeez Paddy , great flying , did youz ever see such a short runway! For the life of me I've never seen such a short runway. I dam near had a mishap"

"Your not wrong there Mick, that was tight, this must be the shortest runway I ever saw. But would you just look at the width of it ...feck me it must be half a mile!"

My point is about perspective. The Chesser deal is something we should all be aware of. If they can do it then so can we.

If so, then why would Lanstead sell shares which they expect to 12 bag on within two to three years?

GLA DYOR

Very useful post tintin35.

My reading of this is that until these points are addressed our project cannot get to the next stage given that it depends on international banks.

The fact that it is issued on 2nd August and specifically mentions mining as one of the sectors makes me think that the EG are managing the expectations of the international investment community. Indeed such reason for delay is not something which Harry could publicise for fear of casting reputational shade on the EG who are a key partner of ours here.

It is better coming from them and in any case ties up with previous statements by Harry about the EG's rapid transition towards creating an operating framework whereby the international norms and structures required in country by banks and other investors are put in place to enable these sorts of inward investment and development projects to go ahead.

At this stage we have a signed umbrella agreement and suppliers poised for the green light however the financing final sign off is presumably due pending these actions by the EG or at least this is my assumption. The end of the rainy season is a help in our case as the EG needs to get these matters concluded pronto and from the article there seems to be a demonstrable intent to do so.

Lots of assumptions here on my part but perhaps a reasonable explanation for the delay.

DYOR GLA.

My assumption and it may be a wild one is that whilst this deal does increase the supply of shares in the market our BOD have made the calculation that demand will increase by a greater amount due to the imminent progress expected across numerous fronts.

If demand stays as it is we enter a death spiral with increased supply, as many posters rightly note (supply and demand).

If demand increases because the company is undervalued based on it's market cap and resource base (which they expect to expand) then demand for shares will increase. Indeed it is reasonable to expect demand to increase to a level where our market cap and thus share price represents a reasonable % value of NAV for an explorer in the markets in which we operate.

This is the gamble that our board has taken. They expect to find ready takers for our shares.

They expect to progress our NAV across various projects. I for one am a believer that this is eminently doable.

The Chesser sale is an example of what type of calculation might apply here and is highly relevant to us (to estimate what a fair market value might be).

The starting point for us at 3.5m is a saving grace as it offers holder a lot of upside in terms of market cap verses % of NAV valuation.

GLA DYOR

The critics here must assume that our BOD are collectively not rational actors.

That is unless their rational act is to simply draw salaries ad infinitum without the intention of ever developing any of our projects into a viable economic and mineable resource however if that is the case why doe Eileen pile in with her wedge?

I would be fairly certain that they have modeled the various scenarios prior to going with this funding option.

Indeed, assuming they are rational actors and that this decision hasn't come about due to a collective brain fart by the folks who run this show then their view must be that we are on the cusp of a position where transformational news is imminent in terms of our resource base.

Our market cap is a piddling 3.5m right now. Bibemi alone should be at a minimum of 600koz by Christmas, we have stuff at surface in Mbe which is bonanza grade and we haven't drilled a thing there yet and Managem are progressing Senala on a free carry.

In 24 months our resource base should be easily in excess of 1moz. With no further dilutions. Indeed we might even be at the stage of small scale mining at Bibemi by then. How we could be worth any where near to 3.5m at that point is beyond me.

This is without the Lithium or Cement optionality. Indeed we have multiple swings of the bat to knock one out of the park here.

If it all goes horribly wrong it does so in spectacular style, but if it does that we'll all lose our money anyway regardless of whether these new investors are a part of it or not.

The silver lining is that are board think we're onto a winner. Assuming that they are rational actors of course.