The future of DRI must be the Gulf area.5 Jan 2024 11:03
The only thing missing for Saudi as a destination for Zanaga’s Iron Ore is possibly the lack of port infrastructure on their side (something they can easily fix).
The UAE is better provided for in this regard and has a free trade agreement with the Saudis (GCC and AFTA). This possibly places some new context around the recent trade agreement between the UAE and CB.
A free trade deal with any Gulf nation is really a deal with all of them.
Iron is a big strategic opportunity for these Gulf nations. Instead of flaring off their gas using their gas to smelt Iron Ore seems a greener option. Indeed for DRI steel making at scale where better than the Gulf?
Perhaps China will still be the ultimate destination for some production but possibly China's greatest long-term opportunities are further up the value chain, making use of imported green steel as a manufacturing input.
If China needs to import energy to make steel it will find it cannot compete with a pivoting Middle East which will have almost zero energy costs. Perhaps joint ownership and a contribution to the delivery of the technical elements of a DRI project or projects located in the Gulf area is a good outcome for all parties, China included.
Their view is presumably that neither the Europeans nor the Americans could make steel cheaper or greener than a DRI partnership between the Gulf states and Chinese will be able to. Access to high quality ore will be a crucial part of this equation. The UAE also has an FTA with Japan, another major market.
These partners, if this is how it plays out will have a product which the West cannot exclude from their markets with green tariffs, and it will be both cheaper and greener than anything the West can make at home.
Perhaps domestic Chinese steel production will become more oriented towards internal markets, and no doubt the Chinese will continue to be significant buyers of iron ore. The Chinese industry after all is an important employer and will no doubt continue to be so.
Steel is a geostrategic resource, and it often becomes a political game because of this. Many countries make a case on security grounds for retaining domestic production. Making a profit making it is really the challenge and many don’t. However any party with near zero energy costs has got a decent chance of succeeding.
Zanaga is a project which sits at the crux of a potential step change in steel production it has both volume and quality and will hopefully play a significant , even pivotal role in the transition to DRI methodologies.
These views are merely speculation on my part.
GLA DYOR.