Member Info for Catbert

Based on a discount rate of 8% the using the banking case of 8 years the TK project has a NPV of £559m and £607m at a 5% discount rate. This is based on a gold price of $1550 which is well below what it is now.

Explorers usually sell for between 5-50% of NPV depending on various factors which include the stage of development IRR of the project and other derisking considerations.

The two things which the market currently seems to have overlooked are the cash flows or potential cash flows from Saudi which are not included anywhere in my calculations and the increase in the price of gold.

Currently we are priced close to 5% of NPV for TK alone and based on a POG of $1550. The market in other words is currently ignoring both the Saudio assets and the change in POG.

DYOR and don't trust my calculations (ChatGPT can show you how to do these calcs and will even give you the answers).

With project finance agreed at TK and the acceptance that gold prices have rocketed our fair value could easily be 40% of double the NPV values I have shown (£559m (8%) and £607m (5%)). Add in Saudi on top of that (which we dont have any forecasted cash flows for yet) and who knows where that takes us.

Harry in his last video stated that we now had a beneficial interest between the two countries of 50% of over 5m oz.

Aim is valuing us at levels way below what the values that would be ascribed to us by the mining industry and so one can understand the talk about a takeover. The skepticism is based on the history of the country and of the project. Once finance is agreed that should change completely.

Indeed of the point of history, Kefi and their various partners are at this moment in time helping to write it.

The second bank's website explains who the decision makers are and also what their decision making philosophy is. I note too that Harry's slide with the reoprt on the security situations in African Gold Mining countries is dated September 2024.

Presumably this is part of the process for the second bank.

I would strongly recommend viewing the Bank's website if you haven't done so already.

www.africaafc.org

Https://www.africafc.org/our-impact/our-approach-to-impact

Our own Martin Rosser bought in here in June at 0.354.

Would it be safe to conclude that the price now isn't really challenging at these levels? I think so -IMHO anyway.

GLA DYOR

The findings are within the initial pitshell design which from a project economics perspective is great news.

Furthermore these finds are not at any great depth. Again a positive in project economics terms.

It looks like we got a bit leaky on news yesterday as there was a distinct uptick in volumes pre RNS this morning.

A single small pit of 100m or so in depth with 500koz is a potentially a viable project in it's own right with these sorts of grades assuming no issues in recovery.

We still have more drilling to come in new areas of the Bibemi prospect. With our current understanding of the wider area it is not unreasonable for us to expect a continuation of this trend in some or all of the locations that we are drilling next.

Remember too that we have already submitted a request for a mining license.

We still have more trenching results to come at Mbe where we know for a fact that there are Bonaza grades, plus the expansion drilling here at Bibemi. News from Senala is also due too so there is still a lot to look forward to here.

GLA DYOR

"To date the Company has completed four phases of diamond drilling for 6,685.40m in 54 holes with a Phase 5 drilling programme on-going. Holes were planned to target the depth extension of surface mineralisation and zones of stacked quartz veins at four key prospects, namely Bakassi Zone 1, Bakassi Zone 2, Lawa East, and Lawa West. A Mineral Resource for the Bakassi Zone 1 prospect has been estimated at 5.1 million tonnes grading 2.30 g/t Au for 375,000 oz Au in the JORC Inferred category.

BCM International Limited (‘BCM’) is earning up to a 50% interest in the Bibemi project by funding up to US$4m in exploration expenditure and making JORC resource-based success payments."

"Following the execution of an Earn-In Agreement with BCM, a Phase 5 drilling is underway for 7060m across 62 holes, with 4,560m of this planned as infill and extensional drilling of the existing MRE zone. The remaining 2,500m over 25 holes has been planned to test two areas BZ1-NE and BZ1-SW, which are proximal to two geophysical targets that are along-strike of the existing MRE and have coincident gold anomalism and quartz veining at surface."

Our people don't drill for the sake of it. I'm expecting the gold per metre drilled to yield the same or better results as before plus we also have a feature on the site that the deposit doesn't outcrop throughout and yet we know there is some degree of continuity below surface even where it doesn't outcrop. My expectations are that we should land somewhere between 600-800koz after this campaign.

The application for an extraction license has gone in already. Bibemi has a particular feature of having significant high grade horizontal extensions which makes the pitshell calculations look more favourable.

The site needs more work but it is our most advanced project. I can see a situation where we could get into production at Bakassi Zone 1 with a lot of optionality to discover and develop other parts of the site once fully explored.

The licence is sizeable and is compared to the 4m oz Chirano deposit in Ghana https://www.asantegold.com/operations/chirano

I'm not sure what the market will do but we may have a progress payment on resource expansion due and we should certainly look forward to some sort of PEA or even PFS next year on this. It could be Cameroon's first commercial gold mine. I'm not sure it will get to be as big as Chirano but it could do and it isn't unrealistic to expect to be at a resouce level in excess of 1moz by this time next year- hopefully with an approved licence to extract. If that doesn't move the share price I don't know what will.

GLA DYOR

That would give us a market cap of £270m.

For that to happen we'd need to have a resource share of our projects of more than 4moz and for us to be sold. BCM would hold 50% so an overall find in the region of 8m oz.

It's actually possible but would take us probably two years from here. It would assume that both Mbe and Bibemi prove up to be feasible projects and that they fulfil their prospective potential in scale.

"There's many a drip between cup and lip" but on current trajectory it's on.

Https://wp-orioleresources-2020.s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/media/2023/01/27-01-23-Mbe-Grid-6-rock-chips_corridor-mapping-RNS-scaled-e1712132411158.jpg

Have a look at these soil anomalies my fellow travellers. They're huge. My guess is that the Northern one is .75km x 1.5km roughly and the Southern one is at least three times that in size.

Now we know nothing about the Geometry at all but we do know the following.

1. Soils anomalies correlate with mineralisation in trenching.

2. Mineralisation is up to 50m thick or more.

3. Catbert's math skills are very dodgy and shouldn't be trusted ever.

So here is my MRE for the Northern Zone based on a small amount of untested data and no knowledge of how deep this goes or how much the grades improve with depth or any understanding of Geometry.

Assumptions.

Everywhere with a soil anomaly has an associated mineralised zone of at least 50m.

x area of soil anomaly x 50m (thickness of mineralised zone) x 1 g/t grade assuming one cubic meter = 1 ton / 26 (to convert grams to ounces).

So that gives us a Catbert MRE for the Northern Zone of 2m oz and 6-8m oz for the Southern Zone.

Obviously Clare Bray will not be using my calculations for her Jorc estimate for various reasons including the fact that we haven't drilled a thing yet but to my mind it matters not.

The point is this thing is massive and could quite easily be 10m oz. If it goes up in grade or extends beyond 50m we're sat on a heck of a big deposit.

Based on the fact that the trenching correlates to the soil anomaly.

The significant fact now verified is the correlation between soil anomaly and trenching .

We have a large areas of soil anomalies and so far have only reported a quarter of what we have in the pipeline.

Here's what my mate ChatGPT says;

"The correlation between soil anomalies and trenching results can be a useful starting point for resource estimation in gold exploration, especially in the early stages of exploration. However, it's important to note that resource estimation typically requires more detailed data and analysis, such as drilling results, geological modeling, and statistical analysis."

I don't expect the market to catch on yet as there is still a lot of work to do. Also noteworthy are some of the widths 50m 67m etc.

The point made by Martin that ore bodies near the surface have had their ore content depleted by weathering (indeed what is now showing as soil anomaly was once mineralisation which was part of the ore body) is also important and the grades reported even in trenching are mineable as they are.

One further piece of good news is that the grades were "smooth" in other words there isn't a high level of variability which is important and positive becasue highly variable deposits are significantly more difficult to mine profitably.

Reasons to be cheerful;

1. Soil and trenching results correlate.

2. The thicknesses of the depositions observed are significant i.e. 50m etc.

3. Grades should improve at depth away from weathered zones.

4. Grades are consistent.

5. We have a large area with gold in soil anomaly some of which is up to .5 g/ t.

GLA

Crazytowner, good points. The market for this share should exapand considerably as we move forwards. Most institutional Investors won't invest if the market cap is < £50m and for some it is £100m both these milestones are feasible and would help sustain any increase.

Harry also mentions the limited in country investment opportunities in Ethiopia itself and in a county of this size there is a viable PI community.

The typical investor profile here should be quite different by this time next year. New investors and new money should be good for the share price.

As Harry states himself with the gold price at these levels TK could theortically pay off its debt in a year. On top of this it is a means by which Ethiopian investors in particular can get exposure to gold/ $. In a country where the local currency has been challenged, this holds a lot of appeal.

GLA.

It is certainly plausible that there are behind the scenes goings on.

If so then the recent farrago where management had to intervene to kill the share price could be congruent with this sort of idea.

Certain people need to get in to a certain level and at a certain price before any notifiable events happen? Maybe.

If so it bodes well for us ordinary proles.

A plus 20% improvement in projected production without any added cost on top of a burgeoning Gold price is transformative for the project economics of Tulu Kapi.

The returns and NAV shown in the company website are now well below what is feasible.

Hawaii you may be right. Indeed there has been an insufferable delay- initially IAMGOLD's ability to haemorage cash and delaying tactics then Covid then the sale to Managem and then Managem needing time to consider what to do. My thoughts are that we are in no rush. There may be a significant prize there and selling it out for enough to buy ourselves an Ice Cream isn't my ideal. We have a resource of 150koz if I remember rightly some drilling could get that to a more mine sized resource and if we hit some more good grades and thicknesses as before we might get a substantial return from whatever exploration we do next. If that cost is split with our partner we might be better off playing our hand more slowly.

Our BOD have come up with some creative solutions in the past hopefully they can come up with a way to maximise value for shareholders on this tennement too.

We have the money from Lanstead and two payments from BCM. We should therefore have some budget of our own to fund a targeted campaign at Senala. The issue there is that we haven't really fully defined the resource there and to get maximum value in a sale we'd need to show more progress than we have to date.

What we do have there is a small resource and some very good grades and thicknesses where we have historic drill data. I think it is realistic to potentially expand this to show a partner what we have and then bring someone in to develop it more fully. Our partner would also presumanly need to contribute their share of the costs or possibly give us back control if we spend the money.

"Diamond and reverse circulation (RC) drilling at the Faré South anomaly has, to date, returned best intersections of 20m grading 31.13 g/t Au including 10m grading 60.98 g/t Au (FARC-00007), 59.60m grading 2.20 g/t Au and 49.50m grading 1.75 g/t Au (FADD-00004) and 70.00m grading 1.46 g/t Au including 31.00m grading 2.72 g/t Au (FADD21-031C)."

Personally I like the idea of retaining the Senala project becasue it derisks us from a jurisdcitional perspective being in another country besides Cameroon. Also I think we have not really scatched the surface there and explored only a small area of the plot we have.

It's tempting to think of Senala as a £20 note you found down the back of the sofa however it is far more than that.

Indeed it might be a very significant site with a large high grade resource. 20m at 31.13 g/t? Let's find some more of that.

The soil results look great.

Let's remind ourselves too of what the likley source of the gold in soil is from:

" Rock-chip sampling to date has delivered results of up to 260.03g/t Au from outcropping quartz veins, and up to 25.16g/t Au from artisanal pits (announcements dated 30 January 2023, 27 February 2023, 21 June 2023 and 22 January 2024)."

I can't wait to get some drill results from Mbe. We now have several large soil anomalies with trenching imminent and then drilling planned thereafter- 260g/t is spectacular even from a rock chip sample.

Exciting times lie ahead.

I'm looking forwards to news too.

Overall I'm happy with the way the news comes out of Oriole. So many mining explorers release snippets of information to bait the market and in most cases these run the risk of misleading investors and once that is done trust is dfficult to repair.

I'd rather wait and get the full data and analysis.

I'm a little surprised that share has come off its upper range given the level of prospectivity and imminent news flow but now we're bimbling around at support on the latest upwards trend this again seems like a buy to me at a £10m market cap. I've not added as I'm at my max allocation ( I try to stay self disciplined).

If we get good drill results at Bibemi we'll have an instant upgrade to the size and certainty of our resource there.

We have taken a very conservative approach at Bibemi and it is clear to me that we are looking to build a mine here in the short to medium turn provided the results contiue to substantiate the business case for this at Bakassi Zone 1.

I would expect a significant rerate as we pass this way point. The expansion potential of Bibemi has already been shown by the previous work there and also by the latest RNS.

I believe that the BOD have prioritised bringing Bakassi Zone 1 online as a small open pit project. Once we have a timeline to the commencement of a revenue stream this business becomes a different cretaure altogether.

Https://www.bahri.sa/en/news-insights/news-insight/2024/bahri-and-ma-aden-sign-strategic-letter-of-intent-to-explore-collaboration-opportunities/

Not sure if this relates to us here.

I believe this affects us as there will be a railhead in South-Eastern Gabon equipped to transport bulk goods to a port.

This has the potential to bring our ROM product into play. Product could theoretically be trucked from our site to the railhead.

Simandou will ramp up gradually however the rail capacity will need to be built as a complete item howeve it will not be used to its full capacity during the early stages. There is the possibility of a deal to be done.

Clontibret hasn't been advanced since 2017.

No PFS DFS or FID neither by Demir nor CGNR. There has been no raising of project level finance either to progress it.

Once you get into PFS and DFS you have to give details and evaluate facts in a full and open and transparent fashion.

Now imagine if you already knew that a PFS or DFS was going to show your main project wouldn't trot.

How would you continue to raise money? Would you even do a DFS?

I guess not.

AKA gullible's travels.