Member Info for Catbert

Elphick could sell 75% of his shares and still be as rich as Croesus if this gets developed.

In any case the question I'm more interested in is who he sold them to?

A bot and a troll hatched a ploy,

To make investors lose joy.

They spammed with such zest,

But the market confessed—

The share kept on rising, oh boy!

Did you spot that massive late posted buy on Friday, £90k for nearly 12m shares. Someone is a bull.

Https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rasCcBQtbZw

Some intersting insights into the future of green steel from one of the luminaries for this sector, Harssha Shetty.

Useful background to understand the way the industry is positioning itself for the future carbon borders and what this means in terms of cost to the consumer of the input cost of green steel verses non green steel (Shetty also discusses Vacuum Degassing in his process mix and it's importance in the production of high quality products - it is interesting to note that the grades needed for this process to work is 67/68% with low levels of impuries.)

Shetty is probably operating at the forefront of Green Steel manufacturing already in terms of carbon footprint per tonne of steel produced and he gives some numbers on this as well as setting out his ambitions and a vision for what is possible.

He also sets out his vision for the future not just of his own company but for the Omani steel sector as a whole.

Shetty also offers some interesting and useful insights into consumer behaviour driving the green steel industry, not just governmental targets with carbon border adjustment mechanisms but also consumer trends and the emerging businesses drivers around this topic and what this means for the future of the steel industry.

I'm more positive on Zioc. Not because of the tweets though.

Not sure what Elphick can do about GMED, it's a market that has tanked in price so what can he do? He can either cut the cash burn and tough it out or he puts it into care and maintenance.

I don't see it as a management failure though, it's just bad luck.

The MMs have to defend themselves against a non signing event and against a raise. So they have different considerations to PIs particularly if they are stuck with over priced inventory.

Shareholders are probably doing this knowing the downside is going to be painful but that the upside is attractive enough to warrant the downside risk the MMs by contrast cannot be losing money ergo they have to take an extremely cautious approach here.

There a basically a divergant set of considerations between the two groups and one shouldn't conflate them as though they were the same thing and equivalent to an actual probability of success or otherwise. MMs aren't in persuit of upside on share price.

Isn't it a fact that these two banks have approved the facility?

If Pi's weren't providing the liquidity, we wouldn't even be at the point of asking the big questions to the two Development banks that we are asking now.

MMs are not investors they have a different set of considerations. They don't care one way or another what happens to Tulu Kapi.

"Que sera, sera, ........etc"

Mr Humble your insights are interesting and informative. I can well imagine the bigger players are able to monitor sentiment on boards like these quite effectively and perhaps the algos and maker are anticipating a further raise - based on history that would make sense mathmatically.

What I don't think you have fully factored in to your analysis is the political dimension. You are solely doing mathmatical analysis where everything is right until it isn't. Events dear boy.

Understanding Ethiopia and where it sits in the Great Game (Horn of Africa version) is rather important. It is superfical analysis to contend that all is not perfect there- it has a fractious and difficult history -true, and yet it is a democracy and is possibly one of the best and most long standing allies of the USA in Africa and unlike it's northern neighbour it isn't a client state of the Russians or Chinese.

Furthermore it is the home of the African Union and all that stands for. Additionally it is a potential economic powerhouse with a young growing population of 120m and nearly no debt. It is also a strategic military ally of the USA in an area of the Red Sea known for its rather lively goings on.

It makes sense for Ethiopia to be fully welcomed into the fold of the international financial system as a favourable destination for investment.

Indeed the banks in this project are Development Banks, the project has a plan for local investment furthermore it is constructed as a collaboration between both local and national government with a mindfulness towards Oromummaa.

A successful public private partnership such as this ,assuming Harry can get it over the line would be an achievement which would warrant significant political prestiege. London is to many extents as both a major financial centre and home to some big mining companies might be the ideal backdrop. It would show that Ethiopia is open for business in a way that would be hard to match.

Events like these are not for the shadows. Superficially an investment in a mine project in Ethiopia might seem extraordinarily risky and not for widows and children.

This much is probably true, but equally at some point Africa has to become a favoured distination for investment becasue most of the Western world is aging, debt ridden and struggling to grow, the bet here is that Ethiopia is ready.

The two development banks in the project appear to think, so otherwise presumably this project wouldn't have proceeded as far as it has.

It may be the case that everything you say is true - based on trends. Trends end. They change, they are extrapolations of the past. Events often end trends.

Politicians are not economists. They don't follow the purely utilitarian approach of the mathematician. Sadly here in the UK we have more than sufficient evidence of this.

GLA / DYOR

Anyone know what happened to the Telegram group?

I think that the risk attached here is being rather over done.

Note that C2% is streaming finance.

This equates to somewhere between $15-25m it could easily be extended and indeed the idea is that it will fit around the preference shares from local investors in an ebb and flow type arrangement.

Theoretically they could probably get the entire amount from this source however it is better optics and more secure to have private Ethiopian investors onboard via the preference shares route.

There is some more detail on this in the Q&A.

Our new and rather ironically named troll is going nuts today. I have green boxed him so no idea what he's saying but for sure he's highly motivated. He really wants you to dump your shares and he'd like you to believe that he's both smarter than you and that he's got your best interests at heart.

One can only speculate as to his true motives. How likly is it that they are entirely altruistic? Even if they were why has he only appeared now and not before? Hmm.

The more he posts the better I feel about holding here.

GLA

Https://www.trafigura.com/news-and-insights/press-releases/2024/trafigura-secures-usd32-billion-equivalent-syndicated-revolving-credit-facility-and-term-loan-facilities/

Note the timing. Revolving credit. It really is!

We've upgraded the standard of trolls here - this new one has graphics. They make an effort. Which I like to see.

MM in a buy out situation if all of the big players take the money then the little players will know it's a fair deal.

They will need to pay 70% of NAV at least to shift the bigger players and that is the risk premium discount.

IMHO.

Bear the other shareholders still have to monetise their holdings at some point.

If they take it private then you can't easily trade your shares however neither can the other shareholders.

Most of Greymont are in their 60's as is Elphick.

Holding a company shares which they cannot easily turn into cash isn't going to work for them. If they take it private (and I don't think they will- but they could) and my guess is that most private holders will just stay put and wait- unless they are offered a fair market value.

The reason the issue of taking this private has come up is because of the secrecy of whatever is going on plus AIM is so rubbish and we aren't going to be able to raise what we need via this market.

IMHO this is neither here nor there as there are perfectly feasible project financing routes available or we could relist on Nasdaq where we might get a more sensible valuation.

My best guess is that we are in a prime position to get project financing for this.

Kore Potash is a case in point where they have used off takes and royalties to create a funding structure.

Kefi is another example where they are intending to use Development Bank finance.

Both are smallish MCAP AIM listed stocks.

We potentially have a few options to fund the project however they need to stop dicking around, and complete the workflows which were promised in Q2 and deliver those promised for Q3.

This way at least we'll have a proposed project to finance- as we seem to have moved on from the idea of a two stage version to our newer shinier more high value version.

GLA.

August 6th RNS.

"Board meetings for KEFI, KME and TKGM (the joint Board of KEFI and the Ethiopian Sovereign Fund, Federal Ministry of Finance and the Oromia Regional Government) are scheduled in sequence during August 2025 for signing of all documents. Other parties are expected to then proceed to countersign according to their respective board schedules."

Presumably if any of these events had not happened according to the schedule set out then the BOD would have been required to RNS this.

If so, then presumably we are now awaiting the counter signatures of the two development banks?

GLA/DYOR

Extrader. Some good points re Glen in particular. They were in a repair of balance sheet MO for some while and our project was going to need Capex so they were always a blocker for development. Even when they reliquished their shares their Marketing Rights were still an impediment to development as it made the deal less attractive to many potential partners.

I can't help but think that the Marketing rights were more about a blocking move than anything else, indeed the entire deal to fully exit seems to me to be tied in with a Quid Pro Quo for CB to settle their large longstanding debt more than the £15m they got from Greymont.

My own guess is that relations between CB's political top tier and Glen had become soured over the debt and that not only did they lack the intent to develop Zanaga but that their aim was all along just to recover the debt and the Marketing Rights were leverage to this end.

An exit with £350m or so bad debt recovered plus Greymont's cash might have been a reasonable deal for all parties. Note the timing of all of these transactions.

The exit of Glen is a watershed moment. I believe that the FEED is mostly done and that the Pellet plant study , revised pipeline study and dry stack tailing study are the final parts of this, because were this not the case Marty couldn't rightly make statements about a construction decision.

One further thought I have had is that Anglo-American are potentially a partner here. Not only does the majority of Greymont have a connection but Anglo has a clearly stated aim to develop their Iron ore business with an expansive phase having taken place in their Brazillian operation in collaboration with Vale.

What is most interesting however is that their African operation which produces 63/64% grade material is approachining end of life. Their stated strategy is to identify and develop other South African targets. Anglo has done all it can to stretch the end of life timeline out as far as it can, however realistically estimates suggest that another 9 years is realistic.

So 9 years to identify and develop a replacement. Zanaga has better grades and a much lower cost of production than Anglo's African operation.

They must be a prospect for us surely/ possibly in partnership with Vale?

Steady on with the cat skinning dear boy.

It seems we have a couple more of those big trades today FWIW.