Member Info for Catbert

A taste of things to come. With the Chinese developing so many of their own projects and having an open book on others they are fast moving towards a place where like the USA they are seeking to leverage their position as the consumer in chief (for Iron Ore at least).

They're unlikely to play their hand like Trump has by weaponising Tariffs, but nonetheless it is clear where the balance of power now lies.

BHP has a very low cost base, the Chinese know it and are no longer hostages to their suppliers.

As time passes their position will get stronger and stronger. More so once Simandou and Mbalam come online.

Negotiate from a position of strength as they say. One hardly needs to tell that to the Chinese.

None of this does any harm whatsoever to Zanaga. Quite the opposite IMHO.

My guess is that Zanaga too will go to the Chinese too, but if it is to be developed by someone else then whomever that might be will need to get their skates on and pronto. If there is a spot in the market where margins can be most effectively defended then it is in the market for premium ores.

Hardly news to anyone here. Plus we've had the tweets to remind us.

We still dont know the identity of the GIS entity.

It could be Jindal. It could be Manara/ Pif or Essar or Orion ADQ. It could also be Trotters Independant Trading for all we know but probably not the Peckham branch.

Setting up an offtake agreement would be simpler than investing in a mine. It would be difficult to entirely rule out Jindal even if they were ultimately a buyer from someone who'd signed an offtake with Zanaga.

MM is speculating here of course but in the absence of any real news ...why not. There are finite number of entities with the resources and expertise to pull this off. Trying to put other people on a hand is part of the fun of this type of game.

Looks like the iceberg is still banging away with those 500k s (assume buys).

It would be interesting to know if that is just speculation or a leak.

Awww... bless him.

Thanks manu17.

Good find MM.

The equity preference shares are non dilutionary. They grant the holder the rights to interest payments and capital repayment in $ value tied to gold price at the time of repayment- they are non convertible.

These preferfence shares are called "shares" and in a way they are as the holders will be issued with a share certificate but they are in reality a little bit like a privately owned streaming deal in that they will be repaid. In practical terms the Ethio Prefs are more like a debt instrument- although they are called "shares".

Because they can't be converetd into ordinary shares they are not dilutionary. Instead they will be repaid once the mine is producing. Like the streaming monies. AIUI.

I do hope you're right Extrader, or should we all now call you by your real name ....... George Smiley?

About as useful as painting racing stripes onto your lawnmower.

The Edison valuation is based on $2400 gold and is risk weighted for Bankable Feasibility Study. This BFS stage is pre finance sign off and pre construction.

At sign off it is significantly derisked and clearly moves beyond the BFS stage as the project is both financed and work on construction can begin.

We should also reconsider the Gold price too.

Stringer could still be right as it's worth whatever the market values it at however Edison seemed reasonably conservative in how they arrived at their numbers.

Furthermore, unlike many other African States, Ethiopia has no record of expropriation and indeed Kefi are partenered in the project at various levels of government. The build duration at 24 months isn't onerous compared to many other projects.

Hopefully we get the full 80% read through via KME into TKGM which we are still awaiting confirmation of (previous statements used the language "targeted 80%").

The Ethio prefs and stream are non dilutionary and any dilution we make to accommodate BCM at top co level will hopefully happen well after we rerate (assuming we sign). The gold price has done us no end of favours and during the build we could expect Jibil Qutman to move towards BFS stage and for some positive news flow as they drill and define the underground portion of Tulu Kapi.

So whilst the signing point could be monumental there is still a great deal more news still to come.

GLA DYOR

It's FAFO

https://discoveryalert.com.au/news/guinea-bauxite-nationalization-impacts-aluminum-supply-2025/

Plenty to think about for Rio here. One thought is do you even really want to be in Guinea at all? Maybe it's a bit late to think that now.

It's a good thing that they have Chinese partners who will be influential in helping to keep the Guineans on track.

Nonetheless its a tricky situation to have to navigate and there is a lot at stake with an ever spiralling cost for the project.

Rio may need to build the Guineans a railway, a national health service, a telephone system, a national road system, a national grid and power generation, the apparatus for a welfare state , trial by jury etc and even then they might still get Simamdou expropriated.

The new lad at Rio has got a lot on his plate. If the Guineans don't build a statue of him after all of this then he's really been short changed.

Adrian also makes the point that the scientific community are very conservative in their thinking and approach. Indeed he is one of them.

So when he's highlighting the significance of the platform and how it is significant for the business- I'm taking that style of delivery as congruent with how a scientist might frame this- which may be rather at odds with your typical AIM listed CEO's approach.

Zero bombast. I like it.

The fact that he's also happy taking shares in bonus payment speaks volumes too.

Garbage. Institutions are more likley to wish to buy than sell on financial close. Most holders are PIs. The analysis is correct in the context it proposes but that isn't the context here i.e. where a large number of institutional sellers are looking to exit. Here it is probably the opposite situation.

As I understand it next week is Kefi and the banks agreeing the final facility agreement document. The lenders for the Tulu Kapi project are likely to require a range of security measures and covenants typical for major mining financings, reflecting the project's risks and regional factors. These include direct collateral over the project’s assets, protection against fiscal or regulatory changes, guarantees of robust site security, confirmed lender rights, and strict financial and operational undertakings from KEFI and its partners (most of the pre conditions will have been pre agreed through the umbrella agreement/ presumably circulated in draft form already and some have been agreed through parliamentary processes, however they still remain to be documented in an final agreeable format).

Next these facility documents are counter signed by the various government departments.

Lastly, a final check is made on the delivery of any facility requirements if applicable i.e. insurances, security and once all signatures are done and the conditions are verified as having been met, the funds begin to flow.

So next week or early the following week hopefully we get an RNS to say that Kefi has signed the facility with the two development banks and then a few more days to get them counter signed by the various parts of the Ethiopian Government followed, hopefully shortly thereafter by the big RNS to confirm it's all completed and that all conditions have been met/ everyone has signed and that our boat has finally come in.

GLA

Even if the RNS just said that unfortunately Marty's dog ate his homework, that would be something.

That's a f...ing big gerbil.

Gerbilzilla. The final boss Gerbil.

Rinehart's lot might be interested in helping to develop Konso. They are partners in Saudi, have deep pockets and would have the resources to execute at Konso if it became a viable project. Given Harry's deep knowledge of Ethiopian mining projects and Vale's prior interest pre 2012 in Konso plus the renewed global interest in Copper I can't help wondering if Konso isn't a potentially significant asset.

Albeit one that is at a very early stage and a true exploration play.

One for the future, obviously.

Someone likes Kefi and wants in by the look of it with that late posted buy.

Please use the green box Gregm.

Go to "share chat" next + filters and then add the name of the poster you wish to filter.

You will only see a sea of green boxes and the unfiltered comments of the genuine / regular posters.

Just green box. It is better.

I have read his posts and get the gist of his thoughts. He's entitled to his opinion. However there is no need to have them served up ad infinitum.

The general themes it seems are that PI's (gerbils) are idiots, who are imminently doomed due to larger forces which are both beyond their control and understanding and only understood by the self appointed illuminati that is Mr H.

Harry is going to raise.

Mr H is a savant who is here to save you from your selves ( a kind a quasi guru/ religious leader for the small cap invester as it were).

All of which may well be absolutely true. Or not.

In any case anything with a green box will be something along these lines.

As they say, never wrestle with a pig, both of you will get dirty and besides which, the pig likes it.

Frankly I doubt that Harry will do another raise before sign off but if he does then he will only do it because there is no alternative option.

If it gets the deal over the line I would support it. However I don't think it is likley.

GLA DYOR

Let's not forget that Harry does have considerable skin in the game here with a near 9% holding, so a huge part of his upside is aligned with ours as holders.

Not only is the next few days a big inflection point for holders the same is true for Harry.