Member Info for Catbert

"Zanaga Iron Ore Company Limited (AIM: ZIOC) announces that, following a request from a potential investor engaged in ZIOC's strategic partner process, lock-in agreements have been signed between the Company and a number of its significant shareholders, representing approximately 34.86% of the Company's issued share capital." RNS

V's

"The lock-ins are entered into between the Company and the major shareholders, as opposed to an investor, but these have been given as a result of feedback from the strategic investor process and to demonstrate that the major shareholders support the Company engaging in the strategic investor process." Reply.

It's interesting to unpick what is happening here. Two statements, both could be true (ish), yet if someone asks you to sign a lock in you're 100% asking who's asking and 100% extracting commitment back in return for doing so becasue no negotiator is going to do anything without extracting a quid pro quo.

The obvious deflection to state that the lock in isn't signed with a strategic is a little unworthy of the author. Anyone who has a double figure IQ or more can clearly understand that point by reading the RNS.

Furthermore even if we have completely inept dingus running the negotiations the idea that all the major share holders would just roll over to have their tummmy tickled without extracting a commitment in return for a lock in is for the birds.

If someone wants a lock in that means something. In the RNS it is clearly stated as a potential strategic investor. To attempt the reframe as "its come from the strategic investor process" may be true but it is such a feeble dissembling that any reasonably intelligent 9 year old would call BS on it- someone has asked for the lock in.

Alistair can't tell us who that is. Well bless him anyway, at least he's written back.

"Don't tell them your name Pike".

Good points Extrader. I agree.

There is such a big resource that no matter how hard a bargain we push for, whoever buys Zanaga will still have a massive upside for the long term.

Besides money the Gulfies bring energy.

Currently in the form of natural gas, but eventually green hydrogen from their solar and wind powered electrolysers.

They also bring better logistical proximity to European markets and they add a dimension where the collaboration isn't all about China which serves all parties, the Chinese included.

It makes excluding their products from any given market more difficult to do politically and serves as a means of diluting the sense that the Chinese players have too much of a monopoly in this area.

Given that the major carbon inputs are energy the Gulfies have a major part to play in the next stage of the steel industry's evolution.

They also have tremendous ambitions and resources, both natural/financial.

"That £2.5M in 'professional fees' will have included some expensive lawyering, IMO "

Good spot Extrader. It could be and one would guess that the granting of marketing rights would have needed some lawyerly advice as would any off take deal that we were proposing. If we get into M& A territory we'll certainly need to be ready.

On the other hand it could relate to external consultants on the tailings or pellet plant projects.

Either way I'm taking this item as an indication of progress.

Management are now slow playing their hand. Or so it would seem.

Conspicuously absent is any mention of the EPC contractor. The big reveal on this was supposed to be in Q2.

The Pellet and Tailings projects reports were supposed to be released in Q3 and these are mentioned albeit delayed for Q4 release.

No mention is made as to the reasons for the delays in announcing any of these pieces of information.

It's almost as if they don't want to release them and indeed there is no regulatory reason why they should do so. Unlike the Interim results.

I wonder if the delays in sharing these peices of information is based on the "pour encourager les autres" concern now that we are supposedly locked in to discussions with an Investor.

Does it signal that we are still in secret squirrel mode as talks proceed?

I'd like to think so- although if we were to invert that thesis (in case I'm gaslighting myself) it could also mean that absolutely nothing is happening at all.

Hmm.......

The current share price is neither here nor there in the grand scheme of things.

The market evidently hasn't picked up on the significance of yesterday's RNS -except perhaps for a few existing holders no one is buying or adding Zanaga shares to their portfolio.

As previous posters have already mentioned the news is indicative of a quite well progressed interest.

Perhaps the real party will kick off once the potential investor is disclosed to the market.

If anything the Board has done us small PIs a favour because they can't buy at the moment- but we can. Thanks!

Here's what the AI says; Discussions with the strategic investor who requested the lock-in are likely to be at a very advanced stage, based on market practices and recent evidence from Zanaga’s official releases. Such lock-in agreements are only typically requested when a strategic investor is seriously considering a significant partnership, such as project investment, consortium membership, or a binding financing agreement.

The investor’s request for over a third of the issued share capital to be locked in for six months strongly implies they have completed key due diligence, reviewed technical and legal information, and are close to finalizing terms

In summary, lock-in agreements of this size and nature almost always indicate that negotiations with the strategic investor have passed initial discussions and due diligence, and are likely well into the final stage before announcement and transaction completion. Shareholders can reasonably expect major news or a binding outcome if the process continues as planned.

Let's hope the AI is correct.

GLA/ DYOR

If these shareholders are permitted to understand the "standing" of the inward investor then why not us?

Surely to disclose the identity of the investor to one group of shareholders and not to the others is unfair prejudice?

20% is way too high.

See Presidential order 14046- anyone who starts it is going to be sorry.

I cannot see the current regime wishing to destabilise the fragile situation- if the Eritreans try it then I don't like their chances.

Realistically the tensions are going to last for a generation in Tigray but hopefully a sensible and peaceful compromise can eventually be found.

The Eritreans initiated the troop mobilizations in February and the Ethiopians responded in March.

If anything I personally think that the Eritreans have miscalculated.

A general mobilization is far more painful and costly for them given their size.

Now they are stuck with the result of their rather belligerant decision.

The Ethiopians are on record as having stated that they will respect the sovreign borders of other nations and they have done so.

Furthermore they have no record of expropriation whatsoever and indeed they have a bilateral trade agreement with the UK.

I wonder why not?

Gupta didn't sign.

I believe that they are still open to bids and could receive bids for the whole company during this time from anyone. However no one could obtain a blocking vote by buying enough of these minorty holdings to stymie a sale.

One of the problems that the board has to solve is first mover disadvantage.

In a scenario such as ours as soon as a first mover emerges and makes a bid this is likley to draw out rivals who may be compelled to make blocking moves either to take the project for themselves and or simply to prevent their rival from acquiring it and there may be those whose approach will be to make the project excruciatingly expensive by bidding it up to unseemly levels.

Thus the first mover has a disadvantage.

For us as shareholder we simply need a bidder who will complete and at a fair price. A bit like selling a house in the UK - you want a fair offer and you want someone who will come through and not someone who just makes you a stunning offer but can't raise finance or is in a chain of 15 people.

The lock in is one line of defence against the first mover disadvantage.

The second line of defence is that the first bidders are in a position to complete before their rivals can assemble a credible rival bid. A bit like a cash buyer if we are to continue the analogy.

This means that any reveal on the stategics is likely to be done late in the piece and close to a signing of EPC and finance terms.

My assumption here is that we are quite well advanced and probably further advanced than has been announced.

The speculation on Cutifani is very interesting and warrrants serious attention. My own guess on Strategics is Baosteel/ Vale and one/ both of either Hadeed or Manara for GIS. Boasteel/ Vale and Boasteel/ Hadeed have existing collaborations. Cutifani would be an idea person not only for his Iron Ore background but also as a trusted and credible party for collaboration and leadership over these final stages. Without being rude or disrespectful to Elphick who has done a superb job to get us as far as he has Cutifani is a world class talent.

Indeed it would be a difficult to find a better person as a successor to Elphick. One can only hope as he'd be a superb appointment.

He didn't attend.

"I wouldn't want to be out of ....... , over the weekend!"

A) Teabags

B) Excuses to mow the lawn.

C) Scarlett Johansson.

D) Kefi.

E) Your own option- please share it with us.

In the last 12 months, KEFI Gold and Copper issued 54 RNS messages, with 36 at 7:00 AM and 18 at other times.

Breakdown of RNS Issue Times (Sept 2024–Sept 2025)

7:00 AM issued: 36 (66.7%)

Other times: 18 (33.3%)

Observations

Messages released at 7:00 AM mainly report scheduled operational updates, quarterly results, discoveries, and corporate announcements.

Messages released at other times often pertain to results of meetings, capital raises, PrimaryBid offers, shareholdings notifications, and occasional urgent updates.

Congratulations Sharezy.

Thanks alanos although I don't know anything for sure.

I'm just speculating based on what we know and what I think seems rational but nonetheless in the absence of a great many facts.

Hopefully we'll be home and dry in a few days.

GLA DYOR

Harry wouldn't have gone for the Bank meetings had he not thought he'd complete the rest of the financing package. As we've had no RNS to say otherwise it logically stands that he has the bank deal done and out for counter signatures.

On the Ethio prefs the most likley approach there would have been to give those who have made pledges for the Ethio prefs a deadline to put Kefi in funds so that he knows how much is needed if anything from the Streaming deal.

My guess is that he'd have given them a deadline sometime last week. The Streaming deal is pre approved so he would just need his own BOD to sign that.

Lastly there will be insurances to complete (which will be done when everything else is) plus there may be a requirement for a last minute double check to confirm all the certifications are in place as per the conditions for the bank facilities.

As other posters have mentioned legal folks like to show their client how clever they are / hate to overlook unforseen contingencies - so there is always scope for delay.

In this case however the umbrella agreement, the prior circulation of draft documentatation and the various meetings held with the members of the unbrella agreement group in August should hopefully have mitigated the effects of unforseen legal issues creating any delays.

In effect Harry has pre closed all contingencies and then gone to do the final deal with the banks.

This is not to suggest that there may be no wrinkles to iron out whatsoever but hopefully he can get all of the cattle out of the field and through the same gate without to much prodding.

My own theory on the price stability issue is that any volatility is read by the strategic as possible evidence of disclosure of who they are.

This is backed by the reaction last year to the rise and the price being beaten down by the board. Further possible evidence comes in the form of the delay in announcing the EPC contractor (possibly a tell on who the strategic is) plus the fact that the CB government is pretty cool about things which may indicate that they know there is a strategic waiting in the wings.

Big strategics won't wish to disclose their identity or interest until the last moment when the project is fully ready to go.

It nearly is.

My guess on the Road show is that it isn't for your typical fund manager but instead it's directed at Development Banks and Soveriegn Wealth funds and will be a presentation of the new updated and revised project plan complete with the last outstanding workflows included. The project will need funding. My guess is the reveal on the strategic the miner and the true ID of GIS comes when they have a draft heads of agreement on finance and the whole thing is ready to go. At present most of it is ready i.e. Mining license, mining convention EIS etc but still some elements need completing in renewed feasibility and funding partners.

This will stop a rival consortium from bidding for Zanaga. I think the Pilbara hegemony is coming to an end and that any announcement on Zanaga that isn't close to a fait accompli will get a reaction which whomever is in the wings doesn't want.

It is akin to the Royal Seal of Approval.

Furthermore the NCI has some phenomenal people working there- if anyone is going to develop a world beating theraputic it is them and presumably any commercial deal with the NCI will include a royalty element.

Royalty earnings is a slow burning revene stream, due to the development cycle, but once it gets going it could become mind blowing.

Single royalties change hands for hundreds of millions of dollars.

Imagine a future in 5 years time where there are multiple royalties coming on stream and multiples more in the development pipeline.

Optimal shortens and derisks the development cycle.

The NCI endorsement is the strongest validation possible short of a proven pipeline of royalty producing discoveries (a final endpoint which will take a few years to reach but which is nonetheless the logical conclusion inferred by the NCI's decision).

Anyone would have thought we were sitting on a gold mine........