Member Info for Catbert

Exactly. This bags again as soon as all equity elements are finalised and we know what the final Kefi read through into KME is. IMHO.

The shareholders are not going to block the debt package at an AGM and Harry isn't going to short change himself or other Kefi shareholders.

At the moment this is priced a the lower end of the possible NAV and based on less than a 100% chance of construction being begun and assuming we only get the lower end of the read through ownership into KME.

So we are fairly but very conservatively priced it seems for the stage we're at but that stage is due to change imminently once the other elements are bottomed out which could only be days or at most a couple of weeks.

There is a case to be made that having the EG on board at variousl levels makes the project more secure and may warrant a higher % of NAV value during the build process.

But even if we stay conservative with the estimates it seems reasonable that we should be in 2-3p range fairly quickly assuming we get the rest of the package concluded on reasonable terms.

GLA

Https://www.kefi-goldandcopper.com/investors/q-and-a

Check out the valuations posted under the questions Directors selling , leadership changes and MPV estimates question 20 on the list.

The company publishes a table giving the share prices it expects at the variuous stages of development and gold prices.

It is dated February 2025 and so is a little out of date, however it would suggest an idea of what sort of offer might be expected for the board to consider an offer.

The highest gold price they use is $2800. Even with a bit of diliution since then and the counterbalancing gold price rise we'd be looking at a decent multiple of the current share price if this table were used as a basis for valuation.

Once we are in construction a sale is a real prospect. IMHO. It probably wouldn't be a low ball offer either if we do have a sale based on these numbers.

Edison has the Saudi assets at .59p.

It's a conservative estimate and both Saudi projects are near to a DFS so should be rerating soon.

Today was a major derisking for TK and for Saudi.

People sold the news because usually that is the best play.

In the very short term these sellers may be correct but right now this is looking very undervalued, particulalry as construction has begun and the most tricky element of the finances has now been concluded.

If Edison is correct on their Saudi estimate then the value of TK reflected in this current share price is .80p or thereabouts.

That seems way too cheap to me, even with a two year build to navigate.

Hopefully the market sees it this way too and the coming price action reflects this enormous value gap which was always there but which has widened today due to the sell the news crowd, all this despite the project derisking as a result of today's news.

We're in better shape than ever. Despite the confounding and bizarre price action we've just witnessed.

Just having the bank finance in the bag is a major step forwards.

GLA

Harry has about 9% of this so I would suggest that it is also in his interest not to "dilute shareholders into oblivion" he'd be diluting himself. Furthermore part of this deal is a stream to ebb and flow around the non dilutory Ethio Prefs so no need for the drama about "running for the exit". Surely if that is what you think then you'd have already run and if so why stay to post this tripe?

Https://aisusteel.org/en/36517/

Very good find Extrader!

The USA has some as yet undeveloped Taconite deposits which theoretically beneficiate into high grade DRI level product and being sat on the Permian basin they are ideally blessed with the resources to produce green steel however even so they are short of raw materials.

Their neighbours in Canada have a couple of projects which could work well Iron Bear being one and Kami which we've discussed here a few times. I was wondering what the USA was planning with regards to securing the iron ore for green steel and with Trump you theoretically couldn't rule out Canada being annexed or invaded- but even for him that might be a bit too far to go and besides there are easier options.

America First has a rather inward looking flavour to it and if one were to criticise this policy from the standpoint of it's benefit to the USA and it's citizens, it would be that it has a tendancy to favour American companies and Jobs in a rather direct manner and almost offers a blind eye to the indirect strategic opportunities in the wider global supply chain such as those being exploited in Africa by the Chinese which might also benefit the USA and it's citizenry.

US overseas development policy often has the other issue of being conflated with a moralising do goodedness whereas Chinese policy is oblivious to the politics or morality of the states it is engaged with. The Chinese don't feel compelled to tell partner states how to run things. Investment isn't accompanied by moralising. Business is business. Maybe a Trump administration would get that this is the approach which is needed to be successful.

In our case there is also the Klepocracy that is the Nguesso clan, although on the plus side CB is ostensibly a democracy.

The kleptocratic aspect could be embarrassing for US politicians particularly as the Daughter has bought an apartment in one of the Trump buildings https://www.icij.org/investigations/pandora-papers/us-prosecutors-push-to-seize-apartment-tied-to-congolese-president-in-luxury-trump-complex/

Of course there probably isn't a nation on earth where the policticians aren't trying to enrich themselves and so maybe it is best to look the other way most of the time. You just have to look at the net worth of most retired Presidents to know what has been going on. The same is true for Congress.

If the USA allows China to secure all of the high grade West African Iron ore deposits it will be a strategic blunder of immense proportions.

The Americans must know this. These developments are highly positive for holders here IMHO.

Once the finance sign off is completed it would be good to see a new Edison report. Hopefully one will be comissioned.

The new report should be updated to include the underground potential/ the revised Gold Price at $4000 and $5000/ oz as well as reflecting the derisking that comes from moving into a construction phase.

The value of the Saudi assets will also increase with the completion of DFS for both projects which are due in 2025 which should add significantly to their value which they listed as .62p in their last report.

At today's price you are buying Tulu Kapi at 1.13p if Edison were correct in their valuation of .62p for the Saudi assets. So it's still quite a bargain even though the price has been moving into more positive territory.

Getting Kefi over the line on funding for TK will also be a big help in enabling the company to realise the value in the Saudi assets.

Although we shall have to go through a legal process to recover any over pegged licences and there is no guarantee of success in this the close relationship and existing collaboration with the Oromia Regional Government in particular isn't going to harm our cause particularly as we'll have assets on hand to both mine and process any neighbouring resources.

Indeed Kefi would be the fastest and most simple route for monetising these resources.

News on the finance sign off cannot come soon enough. Hopefully not long to wait now.

Extrader you may be right and that "strategic review" could mean cuts however Rio are not in a bad place with a part developed West African high grade asset plus workable Australian assets in the Iron ore space.

For them the near term is fairly well set out. Long Term not so and the world is changing so maybe a "Strategic review" isn't a bad idea.

Where is their growth and profitability going to come from?

How do they most effeiciently allocate capital?

How is the Chinese market likley to change and how do they best respond to this?

What is the future of the Pilbara and do they need to pivot away from this area as a mainstay of their operation?

What opportunities exist in the M&A space?

How do they most effectively respond to the carbon borders ideology and Net Zero?

They have a series of exitential questions that need to be answered.

My guess from this statement is that they are out of the running for Zanaga whilst they emabark on their navel gazing exercise.

They need to answer some big questions;

Who am I...what does this all mean?

Why is navel fluff always blue? etc.

The plan was to begin construction in January 2026- the only pre production item that was a bit sticky was the availability of a ship to do the marine drilling that they needed to verify the geological elements for the marine works structures - they couldn't get this type of specialist ship till later in the year.

We're nearly at the end of the year now and no RNS to say we've had any change of plans.

If anything one would have expected this to heat up a little over the next few weeks as we move towards a conclusion.

Let's see what happens. Hopefully it's worth the wait.

Well argued MM and possible but I don't think it is the most likely explanation.

IMHO the reason for his departure was much simpler. Reko Diq. Basically it's great geology and commercially tempting. Mouth watering even.

The problem is that there is a longstanding state verses regional disagreement over the ownership and shared benefits of this resource a dispute which gets pretty spicey and at times even to a shooty level.

So very spicey.

Yer man should have known this and should have walked away sooner rather than placing his political masters into an embarrasing political situation where they are taking sides in a very serious internal political dispute- one where no matter what they do they are going to be portrayed as the bad guys- plus their asset is going to be at risk throughout it's lifetime.

Manara has a political dimension as a business due to the state funding. It's not the same as Barrick.

The Saudi's were too polite to give a reason for withdrawing from the deal so one can be sure that it wasn't geoplogical. It was becasue IMHO the polictics surrounding the investment were unmanageable and the reputational damage was going to be long lasting and similarly unpredictable.

The head of investment at Manara cannot be someone who is going to cause his political masters a loss of face due to his decision making by placing them in an embarrasing political situation- instead he needs to have better judgement and as judegment is what you are paying for in a role like this he has to go for an early bath after this particular farrago.

As an aside it is possible that Manara are GIS. Not that our management will tell us. Need to know basis only (apparently) and we don't need to know.

Ho hum.

Gold queen is the same presumably paid rampers here to pump the share price and shape sentiment and thus buying behaviour.

Could be, it's handsomely priced on a gold in the ground basis and about to get better.

It's now so lowly priced in MCAP Vs Resource to the point where it's a "no brainer" unless some serious impediment can be imagined as to why this could never be mined.

If that were the case then Sprott and Rule would hardly be holders would they?

A couple of years ago Bill did a strategic review with a plan to sell the whole show and that was at $1500 Gold and in a climate where there wasn't much M&A going on. Okay so he didn't get this over the line then but what about now?

With $4000 gold and the possibilities of near 2moz here in the short term and at a better grade average than we had before with an open pit shallow deposit and some pretty much unexplored underground potential on a districst size prospect all in a safe jurisdiction.

I know Moose can be dangerous but this isn't Mali.

Surely a JV or M&A deal is on the cards again here?

If so this should get taken out for a couple of hundred million at least. The open pit is low Capex and there is a lot of optionality in terms of as yet undefined resource.

How can this not be a target for a takeover?

Maybe this appreciation of the new gold price will come when the finance is signed off.

Denis Jnr's Japan visit.

https://congotimes.com/2025/08/08/brazzaville-meets-tokyo-blueprints-over-the-congo/

https://energycapitalpower.com/congo-japan-sign-technical-cooperation-agreement/

https://www.mofa.go.jp/press/release/pressite_000001_01589.html

Https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/climate-energy/nippon-steel-buys-30-stake-canadas-kami-iron-ore-project-2025-09-30/

It seems that they like minority stakes and or offtake deals. So far Austrailia and Canada which are maybe somewhat more tame as far as domains go and domains where they have existing trade treaties and zero chances of expropriation.

They do have a technical co-operation agreement with CB which includes infrastructure. It would be impossible to rule them out as possible partners to some extent. They are also going to need a lot of DRI feed if they are to fulfill their ambitious plans.

Denis Jnr visited them in August.

Maybe they could be a possible contributor for a pellet plant?

The deadline set was deliberately vague "the coming week" is almost a meaningless phrase in some senses and takes us up to the end of this Friday in it's loosest interpretation.

Harry has already set and failed on two signing deadlines "end of August (which may run into September)" and then the "by the end of September" one missing another deadline wouldn't necassarily be entirely unexpected by LTHs and indeed until the shareholders meeting in November no funds can flow anyway. Not that shareholders will vote against the funding. No chance of that.

I was quite hoping that tomorrow would be the date we got news as the last round of broker shares issued become admissible then and it seemed sensible to give them a bit of inventory for a busy day.

Possibly just wishful thinking on my part but maybe not. My own timeline on this is sooner or later with the ideal choice obviously being sooner.

Come on Harry!

Http://en.cppcc.gov.cn/2025-07/31/c_1113554.htm

The CCP have their big meeting October 20th -23rd to set and agree their fifteenth 5 year plan.

Chinese internal political news is mostly a subtle and inferred business which is notoriously difficult for outsiders to read with leadership traditionally showing a united front - yet there are possibly some changes going on there.

Most informed commentators are of the view that Xi is unlikely to be ousted from office, however for anyone who is a follower of politics in China it seems that the most likely direction of travel is for Xi to possibly hand over one or two of his 5 or so titles to others and make a gradual transitional exit over the next two years.

If the Chinese are to be partners in the Zanaga project I suspect the delay in annoucing the EPC contractor and the other elements may have in part been timed around these important events. Indeed it would seem untoward to make anything like an official announcement so near to an event such as this rather than after it.

Whilst their announcement (link) is broad brush and high level, there are items which could be encouraging to Zanaga holders.

Forget that it's just changed to something more sensible looking.

This is what I'm getting on HL at the moment after close. Can anyone explain? It seems a bit odd. I'm sure there's a rational explanation.

Https://www.miningweekly.com/article/xis-giant-iron-ore-trader-is-shaking-up-a-130bn-market-2025-06-20

https://asiatimes.com/2025/10/chinas-cargo-ban-gives-new-meaning-to-bhps-broken-hill-origin/

An interesting driver seems to be China's desire to settle payments in Yuan. Overall there seems to be a strong motive to create a Chinese ecosystem for Iron Ore pricing away from the spot pricing approach. While reducing outflows of US dollars is a factor, the broader aims include increasing China’s pricing power, reducing exposure to US financial sanctions, and promoting international use of the yuan.

Of the major suppliers of Iron Ore only Vale is accepting of the more long term i.e. non spot pricing approach which seems to be favoured by the Chinese.

The direction of travel for the seaboure Iron ore market would seem to be towards a destination which is not as favourable to the Australians as has been the case historically.