Member Info for casapinos

I bought in here at the launch having recently been a customer,but sold shortly after at a small loss, one of my fixed investment rules being to exit my losers early. I have kept a watching brief and was surprised at todays movement but my heading says it all, despite a surperficially good set of figures the significant data is this :
Operating profit this year 20.0mill last year 24.0mill (17%)
the 17% being the fall over the year.

Despite higher sales the company earned £4mill less . largely due to " exceptionals and Share based payments"
I will keep watching and suspect that a bounce is likely but until there is more evidence that the co. can turn sales into profit more effectively and use less of it for board bonuses ,there is too much risk here for me at the MO.

For the many here who , it seems are unfamiliar with the process of unpicking the verbiage in a company announcement to understand (a little of) what's going on here is my summary . Paras in quotes are from the RNS

"This improved trading performance drove a return to positive free cash flow in the third quarter and reduced the outflow expected in the second half. In addition, around £300m of original equipment (OE) concession outflows, originally expected in 2021 are now expected to fall in 2022 due to delayed delivery of aircraft for which we have already supplied engines "
MY translation:
A customer has deferred the delivery of new engines and accordingly we do not have to pay a sub- contractor £300 mill 'till next year. This means that this years cash flow figures will look better .

"Our large engine flying hours are currently around 50% of 2019 levels and approximately 46% year to date as compared to the 43% average for the first half of the year."
My translation
Large engine flying hours will be a little below 50% of normal levels this year

"In Power Systems, the recovery of customer demand in many of our end markets is driving improvements in order intake. As a business with a shorter cycle and higher inventory turnover than Civil Aerospace and Defence, Power Systems has a greater exposure to the current global supply chain disruption."
My translation
Power sytems is struggling with a shortage of components(probably chips)
That and the complete absence of any "new NEWS" is why the SP has fallen today , where it will go in th near-term I do not know (and of course nor does anyone else on this board) .
All that said I remain a LTH .

Rock.... I am a long term investor here and if you could understand my previous post it was broadly positive for BT. If you care to explain what you failed to understand I will clarify.If you choose to do some research I offer you this: https://newsroom.bt.com/bt-announces-triennial-pension-valuation/

Two points, first that DT may well be willing to dispose of their stake at market price or less, to another buyer, whether that be Drahi or AN other , the reason being that to dispose in the market would drive the market down and a persistent high volume seller like DT would crater the SP long before they had unloaded. For DT accepting a loss and moving on and using the cash for other acquisitions might be tolerable.
Second point in ref to fleccys's "and the pension bought out by the trustees", it is worth noting that the long term element of current pension fixing plan is secured against the revenue stream of EE and shares in "EE limited " are offered as security.
The remaining (much larger sum) being guaranteed is to be held in an ABF(asset backed funding) arrangement which will AIUI be jointly owned by BT and the pension fund and will require BT to pay only £10 mill directly to the PF, the rest into the ABF, with the prospect that , if the PF is solvent in the longer term, the residue will be returned to BT. The upshot of all this is that IMV the pension deficit presents a much smaller impediment to break up than it did before. Whether that is coincidental , or indicates BT reorganisng its finances to facilitate an internally planned restructure is interesting.

By 28 Jan next RDSB will almost certainly have bought back ALL the shares allowed under the resolution at the last AGM. The upcoming GM makes no reference , so far as I can see,
https://www.shell.com/investors/shareholder-meetings/_jcr_content/par/contentblock_copy/link.stream/1636896940166/2c06276ba0b0d3a7e6590208bab5451424e1285b/shell-shareholder-circular-and-notice-2021.pdf

to a motion to sanction further buybacks, and therefore they will be prevented from doing so until a new motion is presented and passed at the next AGM scheduled for next May. It is therefore my assumption that a special divi will be declared to return some part of the remaining $ 5.5 billion of "shareholder distributions " over and above the 20-30 % of CFFO already promised.

Deep....you are correct in that UBS 's comments on the BT pension liability are incorrect and out of date.The triennial valuation see
https://newsroom.bt.com/bt-announces-triennial-pension-valuation/
gives a deficit of just shy of £8bill, but one informed commentator see
https://www.pensions-expert.com/DB-Derisking/BT-Pension-Scheme-deficit-falls-on-back-of-recovery-plan?ct=true
suggests it is now nearer £4.6 billion , hardly surprising as like most of us their investment position will have improved over recent months.
There are also provisions in the triennial to stop payments "once the deficit is eliminated".If the payment schedule is maintained and assuming NO investment growth(My proviso) , that now can be expected to happen in about 25/26. An average return on investment would bring that forward. My own view is that despite market oscillations that is highly likely to be the case.There is something of a fashion in the city to knock the big stable bellwethers of the market in favour of new "flavour of the month" upstarts , ESG investments,etc to create supposedly new markets . I have made a decent living out of boring , traditional , low risk , lowish return investing and BT is part of that . I am confident that whatever the city perceptions, this is a company which will offer above average returns with low downside for the foreseeable future

Boyo.. you excluded almost everybody on this board in your first line........!

Nige..... Stock exchange rules, if you've publicly said you won't bid you are not allowed to change your mind for six months , Drahi is under the same prohibition until 10 Dec.

JPM (us bank)is predicting oil @ $125 next year and $150 in 2023, based on OPEC+lack of capacity to pump more (and lack of inclination?)and rapid recovery in consumption.They also cite sharp fall in new explo/extraction.RDSB still a LTH for me.

No matter how many potential takeover stories emerge ISTM that the newly-discovered governmental concern to protect key infrstructure means that no non-UK entity will be allowed to take a contolling interest here .The errors of the past eg ARM,energy suppliers,nuclear power generation ......are unlikely to be repeated in a more volatile and politically unstable world.
That said, it is apprent to almost everybody except UK based investors that BT is an unique, critical part of the modern interconnected world and depite its issues with pension liabilites , rollout costs etc is worth far more than the current MC. In the city chatter this morning I have seen £40 bill quoted as a value for OPENREACH alone!
I am happy to hold here until a significant part of that value is reflected in the SP and dividend stream rather than take a quick tho' in my case substantial profit.

Reliance denies takeover intentions, SP falls!

There will be no extra charge for getting my words of wisdom twice!!

In the words of corporal Jones " don't panic!.......There is a degree of herd mentality even among seasoned professional investors...but more important than that, there is an element of caution which they are bound to apply. They will sell some holdings today , if only so that they can say in their next monthl/quarterly report that "noting the conditions we took the precaution of reducing some positions in our more volatile holdings ....Of course that ensures a negative market reaction but unless the news , in this case of the new covid variant ,continues to worsen , they will buy back, possibly at prices above the selling price and the market will recover.
In any event, over a long enough timescale most SP's will be higher than they are now and as always investors with enough patience will see higher returns.
One other point DON'T use stop losses , they were designed by brokers to hoover up cheap shares from inexperienced investors. Use an alert , so that, first you aren't stopped out by a "fat finger" or a large block ttrade below ask or a situation like today where a very sharp fall and bounce(see IAG) take you out in the few seconds, minutes or hours of a low SP. If you are concened set an alertat 10/20% below current and update it periodically , if it triggers by the time you've looked at the SP it may already be up again and if not , you can wiegh the circumastances and if you believe them to be temporary , do nothing , if you fear the worst you may then be obliged to sell lower but In my experience that is a much smaller probability or risk.
To placate falky can I say I have bought here and RIO and IAG!!
It may be that the US opens down but not significantly so , if it does, I am prepared to buy AMZN, ACN,WDAY and maybe MSFT.
GLA!

In the words of corporal Jones " don't panic!.......There is a degree of herd mentality even among seasoned professional investors...but more important than that, there is an element of caution which they are bound to apply. They will sell some holdings today , if only so that they can say in their next monthl/quarterly report that "noting the conditions we took the precaution of reducing some positions in our more volatile holdings ....Of course that ensures a negative market reaction but unless the news , in this case of the new covid variant ,continues to worsen , they will buy back, possibly at prices above the selling price and the market will recover.
In any event, over a long enough timescale most SP's will be higher than they are now and as always investors with enough patience will see higher returns.
One other point DON'T use stop losses , they were designed by brokers to hoover up cheap shares from inexperienced investors. Use an alert , so that, first you aren't stopped out by a "fat finger" or a large block ttrade below ask or a situation like today where a very sharp fall and bounce(see IAG) take you out in the few seconds, minutes or hours of a low SP. If you are concened set an alertat 10/20% below current and update it periodically , if it triggers by the time you've looked at the SP it may already be up again and if not , you can wiegh the circumastances and if you believe them to be temporary , do nothing , if you fear the worst you may then be obliged to sell lower but In my experience that is a much smaller probability or risk.
To placate falky can I say I have bought here and RIO and IAG!!
It may be that the US opens down but not significantly so , if it does, I am prepared to buy AMZN, ACN,WDAY and maybe MSFT.
GLA!

I've been cashing out some of my holdings in the UK and the US, over the last few weeks in the expectation that a correction is coming, BUT I don't think this is it . There will undoubtedly be a flash crash today across the board , it will affect high beta and travel related stocks most. SO, I will be buying , some here , more in my US holdings. As often repeated I am a long term cautious investor , but when offered the chance to buy companies with good long-term prospects at a (temporary?) discount I do so. It has proved a sound strategy in the past as I am willing to wait months or sometimes years to turn the steady profits I seek. Let's see how the day goes and see where we are in 3/6/12 months.
GLA whatever you do

If you look at the Share price icon above and check the volumes on the graph ,there appears to be an entry for SUNDAY 24th of 13mill shares . I suspect a C**K up by someone inputting data on this site!

Come on guys if you're an investor yuo've got to be on the ball. yet another piece of not so good news from SAE . Two things , one they have to find another auditor 'cos the last one who qualified the accounts (see my post of 30 june)has decided they aren't willing to act for SAE anymore and they need another
The second is of another intersted party bailing , in this case it is New Technology capital group , the hitherto unnamed business behind the deal to buy discounted SAE shares announced last December . SAE apparently terminated this deal on 28 september of this year BUT failed to notify the stock exchange. I don't know if that is against the rules but it is certainly shady. Anyway NTC now want out and while they would apparently prefer their remaining cash back SAE are proposing to offer them 40 mill shares and want you, the shareholders, to approve. As you know , I hope, I am not a holder but I don't see any other option than to approve the deal . The alternative of returning the balance of £341k clearly threatens SAE's solvency. Note that it is almost certain that in order to continue to function they are going to need yet more money from somewhere.
Sadly the picture looks bleak, I am surprised the SP hasn't fallen further , but perhaps almost all holders are resigned to waiting it out , for better or more probably worse.

LTI what you say may turn out to be true but as a cautious investor I hold the traditional mix of bonds (or bond proxies) and equities . It's not very exciting but the much lower volatility of the FI element of my portfolio allows me to sleep easy!

Capt it depends on your time horizons, anyone holding any of the LLOY prefs for any length of time has done well , at my purchase price LLPC(the9.25% irredeemables) is paying me a generous double figure sum annually.I know that the capital value of all of these will fall over the next year or two as interest rates rise, and that is why LLOY have made the offer now . The fact that takeup is very low ~ £47mill out of £360 mill suggests that most holders are quite willing to hold through a period of higher interest rates and capital losses , pretty sure , as I am, that this will pass and the annual return in the future is going to be hard (delete that, read Impossible )to beat. That's my position on these and other similar holdings.

giant... your research fails again . If you care to read my posting history here you would find that I invested about four years ago, sold at 35p , taking a decent profit when the dangers of the GFG link became apparent and warned others here of my concerns , warned again on this board in March when the SP was at about 11p and continue to try to help naive investors not to lose money. It's all there on the record.My posts contain no hostility to current investors , quite the reverse,as I did on both the HUR board and the SXX board (at enormous length) I try to illustrate when companies are in terminal decline, often to be greeted by hostility in return.