Member Info for casapinos

AA I have been taking money off the table for a while now , mostly cashing profits but in some cases accepting losses to build upon my normal cash position (about 20%) so that as and when something approaching normality occurs I can invest in stable sound companies which have been caught up in the panic. I attach a piece from a post I've just made on the BT board as further explanation:
" BUT it isn't 'cos I consider BT a bad investment , it is that when s**t happens it flies all over and both "good" and "bad " shares are sold down. The reason for this is that big holders , the banks, Insurers, etc still have tens of millions of obligations to meet every day and need to free up cash to meet them. They all will have investments in businesses which are affected by events, not just Russian securities which are "unsellable 'cos the market is essentially closed, and "western" businesses, bonds, etc which are also falling in value but are tradeable . So they have little choice but to fund day to day expenditure by selling some sound and fundamentally stable stocks which is why the whole market falls . On that basis I do the same, build up a " warchest " of cash to take advantage of the bargains which emerge when (or often before) the dust settles. I still hold 50% of my BT and will buy back the rest (if my cunning strategy works!!) at prices lower than I sold and very probably prices lower than today's.
That said , to all those who continue to hold in full , good luck.

Going the other way , I sold 25% at 195 a few days ago and another 25 % at 180 first thing today. BUT it isn't 'cos I consider BT a bad investment , it is that when s**t happens it flies all over and both "good" and "bad " shares are sold down. The reason for this is that big holders , the banks, Insurers, etc still have tens of millions of obligations to meet every day and need to free up cash to meet them. They all will have investments in businesses which are affected by events, not just Russian securities which are "unsellable 'cos the market is essentially closed, and "western" businesses, bonds, etc which are also falling in value but are tradeable . So they have little choice but to fund day to day expenditure by selling some sound and fundamentally stable stocks which is why the whole market falls . On that basis I do the same, build up a " warchest " of cash to take advantage of the bargains which emerge when (or often before) the dust settles. I still hold 50% of my BT and will buy back the rest (if my cunning strategy works!!) at prices lower than I sold and very probably prices lower than today's.
That said , to all those who continue to hold in full , good luck.

Correction, should have said " a significant amount of that money is held ........

For those who don't see the link between LLOY SP and world events the answer is surprisingly simple.This from the latest accounts
"Total assets 886.6 billion pounds"
is the answer . That money is held in the form of government bonds, fund investments , both in the UK and abroad. As stock markets fall the value of those investments fall and LLOY' s ability to fund its activities is at risk.As a simple example think of the impact on a massive investor in the FTSE 100 which LLOY is , of a 5% fall. The bank is just like you , dependent on the price of it's investments!

Seaking ....from Pfizers accounts for 2019/2020 it explains that their consumer health products with a revenue of ~$2bill were rolled into the JV with GSK. That is the business which is to be floated off as Haleon.
See this page copied from Pfizers 2020 accounts
https://s21.q4cdn.com/317678438/files/doc_financials/2020/q4/Q4-2020-PFE-Earnings-Release.pdf

As you will see from the bottom line of the table they no longer have a stand alone consumer health products business.

Barrie When all else fails I look at the numbers!
For me, these are the key ones
full-year revenue 2021 $261 billion
full year earnings 2021 $17.4 bill
Trailing P/E 8.8
average oil price WTI 2021 $68

Whatever happens this year and despite likely write offs related to the current "special rescue mission" in Ukraine!!!
I cannot see the oil price averaging less than $68 this year , so figures at least as large as last year should be probable. In that case and with the recognition by the world that we aren't going to be oil-free any time soon I am happy to hold a share which I believe will rise at least gently(let's say to the middle twenties?) and will continue to pay a decent divi.
Declaration, I am a luddite who believes that oil , gas, metals will be needed for decades yet!

Housing is an unique asset, supply is less than demand and growth is necessarily slow and almost certainly growing more slowly than demand . It's not unlike bitcoin in that the rate of production continues to slow as supply nears exhaustion.

Itsall my place is up in the hills between Granada and Salobrena, get down to Nerja occasionally,but quite like to be away from the throng!Glad to hear you didn't get screwed by the SXX debacle , sadly an awful lot did.

itsall yeah that's me , still got it tho' wasn't able to use it for nearly two years , all sorted now . Sad to say my predictions of doom on SXX were ignored by many.

Boyo as our resident chart expert and one who I know has tracked the relationship between POO and SHEL sp can I set you a puzzle?
I have said on here a couple of times that Shel will be agreeing future supply contracts with customers at prices dependent upon, but not necessarily, the 3 month future price.
What I am wondering is , is there a detectable lag between the rise in POO and a consequent rise in SHEL SP and when POO falls does the Shel SP respond immediately or with a detectable lag . Hope I make myself clear , I would expect that Shel having agreed deliveries at a fixed price , a subsequent fall in POO is not reflected in Shel revenue immediately.
Thanks in advance if you tackle the query and thanks for your input even if you don't!

Itsall 6000+posts and you don't know what an uncrossing trade is ????
I despair

Seaking BUT Haleon is only the spin off of the GSK health products in which Pfizer hold a 32% share, it is nothing to do with Pfizer's own healthcare labels , which are a separate part of a $300 bill company.

Strike...Share prices ARE manipulated , that's the nature of a market, when buyers outnumber sellers the price rises and vice versa. BUT there is no SMERSH controlling this , there are no secret cabals somewhere screwing over Joe public for their own evil purposes. I have been an investor for thirty years and I have contacts in a number of market-related entities , they use the information they have to try to invest successfully but they don't always get it right because it is unpredictable. Hedge funds have clever guys running sophisticated algorithms tracking every conceivable market influence and even they screw up regularly, though their hope is that it's less frequent or less significant than their successes. I am fed up with conspiracy theorists on these boards who put down their losses to market manipulators and their success to their own genius. ALL of us are here to make profits but not all of us can , some 'cos they're just incompetent or ignorant, some 'cos they're just unlucky, though as a legend once said "the more I practice the luckier I get!"
Patience , hard work, research (I found it odd that in hundreds of posts after the results almost nobody on here read them carefully and tried to understand them!)and a bit of luck is what is needed to make a consistent profit by investing.
This is not a criticism of you , but you have highlighted what most here need to come to terms with , there are no easy wins in life and when you lose it's not 'cos the game is rigged.

Strike.... all holders here should realise that it's a 2/3 year hold .SP growth depends upon the end of covid internationally not just in the UK, the return of LONG HAUL flight not just those popping over to Spain for their hols. and the ability of RR to generate revenue to pay down debt. For that reason, RR's Sp is not likely to rocket in the short- term, though for corporate holders like Causeway that's not a problem , like me they stocked up on RR around the time of the heavily discounted RR and I know from meeting some of them in LA a while ago that they hold their stock at an average in the low 70's. They have cut their position over time and banked some profits but , also like me are happy to hold for an SP much higher than this (absent some unforeseen disaster )in 2023/4/5. If you are a holder I politely suggest that you relax and wait , I have found that the most effective strategy for investment returns!

Jatw It seems that Pfizer are happy to retain their 32% share in Haleon, presumably they see steady revenue as complementary to the much more lumpy cash flow from vaccines etc..What was confirmed yesterday though, was that GSK will retain a 20% share in Haleon which they will "monetise" ie sell down as opportunity arises. The effect of that will be to depress the Haleon SP as the market will know that every rise will be trimmed by a willing, active and potentially large-scale seller . The GSK management are even more stupid than I thought. I am timing my exit!

As a very long term SHEL shareholder (they were called shell transport and trading when I first bought!) I fully approve of their decision to cut ties with Russia , and regret that it wasn't done years ago . Corporate greed, which we as shareholders benefit from eventually backfires.
As to the specific direct effects, there are several imponderables, first, I don't think Shell or BP or Total who also have huge interests in Russia will easily find buyers and I don't think the Russian state will pay compensation!
It is most probable that at some point in the not to distant future these assets will come under the control of Gazprom and continue to flow gas and oil. The western world will IMV essentially refuse to buy , but China and India have an insatiable need for energy sources and they will take up the slack.
I expect there to be a significant period of higher prices maybe lasting for a couple of years , and I also suspect that Russia will be cut off from western extraction tech and tools , causing a reduction in Russian output, that together with shrewd manipulation of oil production by OPEC (+?) will keep flow at levels supporting $100+ prices . OPEC will see current news as a way to extracte the maximum value for oil until its use begins to diminish , something which won't happen for a few deades yet , despite the green lobby.
As to the efect on the SHEl SP which this board rightly,concerns itself with even in a time of significant suffering. I hold and may add in the confidence that SHEL will earn significant oil and gas revenues for decades yet and any short term SP weakness will eventually, be corrected.I will feel better about my holding as it no longer supports a tyrant.

Todays volume 518mill , buybacks 55mill , on friday vol. 706mill, buybacks 36mill. It seems reasonable to assume that buybacks are not yet having much effect on the SP.Still there is more than £1.9 bill. still in the kitty!

Having given up on the presentation a while ago I have just gone back and looked at the FY numbers for the bits of the business which will constitute Haleon and I think GSK have made a catastrophic error in turning down the ULVR offer.
Last year Haleon's equivalent sales were just under $10 bill with a FCF (roughly the equivalent of profit) of £1.4bill.
Their best hope is for about 5% of revenue growth over the next (let's say) 5 years getting them to £13-14 bill sales and if it ALL falls through to the bottom line at the same rate, profits of ~£ 2bill.
At a valuation of £50 bill for the ULVR offer , that's a forward PE of 25 , VERY steep for a pretty bog standard consumer business.
I suggested in a post a while ago that I thought both sides had screwed up and todays stuff makes me think that ULVR ( which I also hold) might thank their lucky stars that they were rebuffed.
I had intended to hold here beyond the break up and sell the consumer bit after a degree of post float euphoria.I am now considering selling up before the split as I fear the market might greet Haleon with derision and a market cap way below the ULVR offer.
One other worry is that "drastic Dave' s"role as chairman is a waste of a very good CEO and I am stunned that he is not scheduled to appear today.
Will post further cogitations over the next few days.

Red...Typo in your heading and I REALLY hope there is a typo in the comment!!

Franck and Tamara are NOT Ant and Dec though they're trying to be!
some of it is excruciatingly embarrasing
Bragging about ethnic diversity and female dominated teams , the agency who have dreamt this up have check-listed every possible "woke " buzzword.
Their propreitary tool "Trigr" makes the namesake from OFAHlook the model of intelligence!
Another stunning revelation is that doctors can be persuaded to recommend GSK's products!!
I'm giving up now, will reflect later but broadly I am apalled by the lack of rigour in this stuff ,it's like a monty Python Pi**take.