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Not that I want to intrude on a private argument but following my involvement in a Twitter debate with various folk including the Resolution Foundation and others working in the field it emerged that the most widely held definition of Poverty is this. "Relative " poverty is deemed as a household more than 50% below the average family income and " absolute " poverty is more than 60% below. The problem, very obviously, is that both are actually relative and there appears to be no widely accepted absolute measure based on income versus minimum necessary expenditure and both measures described were conceived in 2011 and have not been amended/updated/ improved since then. Also they both suffer from the well-understood quirk that if eg Elon Musk were to move to the UK millions more would be classified as poor!!

Apart from the pages of mindless chatter here- when in doubt analysing the facts is my strategy so here they are as I see them.

The air India deal was first mentioned as far as I can tell before midday on Friday, Bloomberg has a piece at 11.03 and it suggested up to 30 Airbus SE A350s (with RR engines)at a list price of about $10bill but we all know that list prices for big jets are always subject to discounts so maybe $8bill. Estimates suggest that these engines cost between $12 and $20mill, so the cash to Rolls would be at most $300-$400 mill BUT of course, the major benefit to RR is the lifetime maintenance revenues. So in 2019 (the last "normal" year) Rolls civils (ie mostly engine maintenance produce ~$8bill revenue and at that time it looks like there were about 300 A350s flying so let's assume the additional revenue from the Air India deal might be 10% of 2019 revs ie about 800 mill, pretty good but just about 5% of 2019s total revs and IMV worth about 5% on the SP- so because of the above and the fact that the market didn't fly until 4.15 I don't think the Air India deal was responsible (though today's Times does)
Next lets briefly consider the "Three technologies " effect, well as the three technologies were SMR's Electric planes and ultra fan and all are widely known( and the reference is from Thursday) discounted in the price that is also not a probable cause.
So now let's address what we know of the price action on Friday, nothing much unusual happened to the SP all day until about 4.15 at which point the key trades (ie the big ones)almost all "late reported" are IMV
NUMBER PRICE
11m @94.79 (pre-surge)
3m @103 (mid-surge)
1m @104 (mid surge)
1m @109 (late surge)
2m @110 ( late surge)
940k @110 (late surge)
lots of trades of 100k -1m @ 110 ish which look like deals done after the bell
so can we conclude that somebody (the 11m at 94.79) heard something very positive whether true or rumour and went in hard, other traders saw that and either copied or rang "somebody " up and piled in?
A merger or takeover as everyone here recognises is tricky RR is a fundamental part of the UK's aviation and defence infrastructure and won't in the present climate be sold abroad the options are extremely limited and :
SPECULATION
Might be a BAE/ RR merger,
Might be a gov. initiative to heavily fund and promote a big move into SMR's
Might be a major defence procurement push
might be something else!!
Whatever, it is almost certain that there will be an RNS on Monday
lets look forward - the worst that can happen is a burst bubble!

I've posted here a couple of times seeking to explain the recent RNS's tendering to reduce outstanding loans. Well the broad thrust of what I said was correct and they are in the midst of a programme of buying back some of their outstanding bonds, and that will continue. BUT I was wrong in assuming that they will go back to the market to replace that borrowing with lower coupon issues before rates start to rise .
I had a couple of guys staying with me for a few days with deep city connections and over a couple of bottles of red LLOY came up (along with a number of other less erudite topics !)and it is apparently well understood amongst analysts that LLOY's capital postion is such that, as they are comfortably above the BOE mandated capital buffer rates,they have no need to replace the issues that they are seeking to repay. The implications of this are undoubtedly positive, all those bond coupon payments retired will drop stright through to the bottom line and we can expect to see a period of substantially better returns .IMV LLOY remains a strong hold , but rewards will accrue over the next few years not days!!

Latest on the UK OCDO versus autostore patent infringement cases taken from juve-patent.com
"Thus, of the original six patents at issue in the UK courts, three remain the subject of infringement disputes. The case, which commences on 29 March 2022, is due to be heard by deputy High Court judge Richard Hacon. The patents still at issue are EP 29 28 794, EP 29 62 962 and EP 30 70 027, with Ocado counterclaiming for revocation of all three patents.

The UK court has also scheduled a second trial, Trial B, for April 2023 over two AutoStore patents EP 35 35 633 and EP 33 72 534. The case will cover a technology recently launched by Ocado for a range of robots which transport storage bins.

All six original patents are also subject to opposition division proceedings at the European Patent Office. While the EPO upheld the validity of AutoStore’s parent patent EP 027 and upheld in amended form EP 794, it revoked EP 962, EP 31 57 847 and EP3250481.

Parties await a final hearing over EP 30 50 824, which is scheduled for 22 November 2022."
Casa -Your friendly non -invested guide!!!

100....sorry but you seem not to recognise the implications of the placing and open offer in June 2020. That action had the effect of almost quadrupling the shares in issue at a discount of over 50% to the market price. Therefore roughly, for every share owned before that date another three came in to being at the price of 75p. The placing shares went to II's and regardless of how many they owned at a higher level the placing and open offer flooded the market with almost THREE TIMES AS MANY 75p shares. I hope you can grasp what that does for the average price of large holders.
You should read and digest these para s from the placing doc.

"The Offer Price of 75 pence per New Share represents a discount of 51.1 per cent. to the Closing Price of 153 pence per Ordinary Share on 29 May 2020 (being the last Business Day before the announcement of the Capital Raising).

The 126,666,667 New Shares to be issued pursuant to the Firm Placing and the Placing and Open Offer will result in the issued share capital of the Company increasing by approximately 284.1 PER CENT(my caps) Shareholders who do not, or are not permitted to, acquire the New Shares will be DILUTED BY 74.0 PER CENT. (excluding the impact of the Offer for Subscription) or 75.8 per cent. (assuming full take up under the Offer for Subscription and no options granted under the Share Schemes are exercised between 19 May 2020 (being the latest practicable date prior to the publication of this announcement) and the issue of the New Shares). "

Accepting that Tosca and others held significant numbers at higher prices THEY THEN BOUGHT ALMOST THREE TIMES MORE at 75p, thus reducing their average enormously.
I won't return to the debate as continued back and forth is not my style but I do hope I have clarified for you the implications of the Placing and OO .
Declaration, I have now sold just over half my holding , realising enough to run the rest for free.

Only 82000 posts you can't expect him to know!!

Addendum
Guys As a relative newbie here I don't want to disagree too vigorously but you need to remember the June 2020 placing of 100 mill shares, over half the current stock(current shares in issue 184mill) which would have been taken up by Tosca and others at 75p, a discount of over 50%. I suggest some of your estimates of the main player's averages are way too high.

100....... between 5 June 2020 and 24 July 2020, Tosca went from 14% of TED to 26%, for most of that time the SP was below today's and between 19 June and 31 July it was below 100p. should you care to do a more detailed analysis than I can be bothered to (cos it's a chore) the link is here
https://www.londonstockexchange.com/stock/TED/ted-baker-plc/analysis
Noggers I watch the daily RNS's which legally require companies to disclose holdings and indirect positions via options CFD's etc and any substantial exits whether of long positions, hedged shorts or other negative vibes are possible to discern (IMV) though you're right I am not the only one watching and as soon as any news is hinted the SP could fall , though IMV not back to below 100 for any length of time , once a company is in the sights of PE it stays there .

Just answered my own question(always the best way!!)
A quick trawl through the TED RNS's over the last two years reveals that Tosca in June 2020 had 20% and built it up to 26%+ when the sp was in the 60p area,at around the same time Schroders more than doubled their stake from 5 to 11% at prices around 70p so two big holders with currently over 40% of the equity could make a handsome profit on a bid at TODAY'S price. I'm not suggesting that will happen but it adds some perspective to the debate, for myself, sitting on 30% I will be watching for the telltale signs from RNS's if the city gets wind of no deal.

After some research, it looks to me like it's probably the Tosca opportunity fund (assets$676 mill) that holds the TED stock. Given that the cost of a buyout of TED is likely to be $400 mill+ I doubt that they would go so all in and make one holding about two-thirds of the fund. Therefore the reasonable conclusion is that Tosca's strategy will be to get as close to 30% as they can and seek to get the best exit price possible. Those of you here longer than me suggest that Tosca's holding is currently underwater,(anyone know or guess their average?) but I presume that a substantial takeout premium would solve that problem. For holders, we must wait and hope that Tosca and the others push Sycamore high, 'cos at the mo their is no sign of another bidder.

As I pointed out the other day, takeover rules mean everyone is now playing with their cards face up and the last couple of days indicates that broadly II's are buying, I won't bother itemising all the new positions as they are all recorded in RNS's but Barclays, RM and Currie are all net buyers( about 5/6% of the stock). The City's position seems to be that a bid is likely.

A couple of things worth noting- Tosca AUM (assets under management ) a proxy for the size of the company, is $2bill, Sycamore is $10 bill, so in a bidding war Sycamore have far more ammo and Sycamore already own the Ann Taylor group of apparel companies, revenue $3bill, MC $2 bill, so all in all, Sycamore could afford to buy Tosca's holding out with petty cash, I also suspect that with Ray K's history they would want him far removed from the co and currently his ~12% is worth £30 mill , so not a major financial barrier to a T/0.

Theo yeah that's about right. It is a little puzzling why they are seeking to sweep up a bond which has a 2023 expiry, but I guess it might be the highest coupon of their outstanding debt and sensibly they will utilise cash to work their way down to lower coupon bonds. TBH I haven't bothered to research their full debt profile, I may get round to that sometime as they look like they are in the midst of a serious restructuring of the capital profile.

I would recommend that all holders here read one of the many available guides to UK takeover rules available ,this is a useful example
https://www.burges-salmon.com/news-and-insight/publications/guide-to-public-takeovers-in-the-uk#announcement-obligations

In this case a potential takeover by Sycamore(or anyone else) will be tricky because if you look at the holdings RNS's published on 21 mar, you will see

Tosca 27.6%
Schroders 12.6 %
Threadneedle 9.6%
those add up to 49.8% of the company and to go "unconditional" a bidder must achieve over 50% of holders acceptance.
Thus the three major holders have Sycamore (or anyone else) by the ba**s,if, in the improbable!!! event, that they act in concert.
Whatever I or the rest of us think, a takeover will only suceed if the three key players wish it so, and that means IMO that we are talking of a very substantial bid premium , I don't do guesses 'cos they are worthless, but my expectation would be for a bid premium of the order of 60/80%( or more) from last weeks SP level. It should also be apparent that Sycamore knew all this before they started serious due diligence and thus its a big premium or no bid.
The other factor is that Sycamore must " put up or shut up" within 28 days of the news breaking, unless another bidder emerges.
Finally , to repeat , read a summary of the takeover code so that you understand what's going on .

Today's RNS is another element of LLOY's capital restructuring programme which I referred to in a post on 14 Jan.LLOY's borrowings include a number of bond issues made some time ago, many at or around the time of the GFC when their cost of capital was between 7 and 12%. It is clear that their current stability allows them to offer to repurchase as much of that money as creditors are willing to sell and refinance at a lower rate of interest. Today's RNS is an offer to repurchase about one third of a bond issued at 7.6% . It all augurs well for the medium term profitability of the Company, and along with the share buyback, IMV displays a sound use of the excess profits recently made.

For those who haven't held shares in a company subject to a possible takeover be prepared for a flurry of RNS's detailing who holds, who buys and who sells stock for at least the next month. The good news is that the likelihood of an offer and/or it being accepted is, to a degree, played out in public and holders can , if they wish plan their strategy accordingly, or merely sit and watch the fun.

Hi I bought in here late last year 'cos I like their shirts, and own quite a few and it looked clear that despite their troubles they were n't going bust and an SP recovery was probable, I added after the february update and now hold at an average in the high eighties.My expectation was that the market would slowly realise that this is a good company whose brand name is probably worth more than the current SP that a slow recovery was almost certain, that may still be the case.
I also hear that sycamore aren't the only ones looking at these (and a number of other "distressed " UK retailers). Two things , first a bid may not be forthcoming and second the board may not accept if it is, BUT whatever happens this is one step on the road to redemption for these and others and is a massive SP positive .Whatever the outcome TED's SP will rise in the short term and I may well take a profit(and as is frequently the case- lose out on a bigger profit later!)
Retail is not a sector I buy in normally, but there are many seriously undervalued stocks in the sector(AO,CINE,DOCS,GAW......), and despite the war in eastern Europe I don't believe the UK's shopping habit will end any time soon.
Lets see what happens today ,....
GLA

Value I promised not to prolong the debate and I won't. I fully accept that the Kroger tie-up is important for OCDO and hopefully profitable, as you say, for obvious reasons neither party will reveal the contractual arrangements, but let's hope they are the forerunner of many more. As mentioned, I have an inclination to invest here, but will bide my time, if I miss the boat, so be it, for those aboard, Bon Voyage.....

Value..If that is true for a pilot, it is beyond improbable that Kroger will agree that deal for all their CFC's , You must recognise that grocers operate on the thinnest of margins, there is no way they'll pay an enabler 4/5% of their sales. Think about it for a few minutes, I won't respond further, so the field is yours.

Value...
https://www.retail-insight-network.com/news/kroger-q3-2021-results/#:~:text=US%2Dbased%20retail%20company%20Kroger,year%2Don%2Dyear%20basis.

Krogers' annual profits are about $3.2bill per annum, their sales are $120 billion , by your reckoning they would be paying $5/6 billion per annum to OCDO, unlikely !!