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Livestock " excluding remediation - whatever that is".
It is the most important line in the upcoming results .It is the almost arbitrary amount that the bank's finance officers choose to either set aside to pay for bad debts ,or as they will do this time around, return to the available coffers for other purposes(ie divi's, buybacks, acquisitions etc).
I posted this last week:
"Perhaps the key item in the NatWest results is that impairments{remediation by another name} went from -£2.1 bill to +800m, a turnaround of almost £3bill because of the diminishing risk of default (and because the various authorities leaned on the banks to over -egg provisions).
Last year LLOY results included an impairment charge of £4.2bill, if that is totally eradicated it would have a spectacular effect on the bottom line and would (My est.) raise the EPS to between 4 and 5p per share."
I suspect from latest hints that my last line a week ago is an underestimate.

Falky the oil is not "in the Falklands" it is almost 4000m below sea level and 3.5k below ground.

For those who want facts(and I realise that's not all of you!)this site gives the current make up of UK energy supply
https://grid.iamkate.com

Corvo worth remembering that most of the Natwest divi goes to the Gov. , other banks will be more cautious with ratio of divi /buyback!

Perhaps the key item in the NatWest results is that impairments went from -£2.1 bill to +800m a turnaround of almost £ 3bill because of the diminishing risk of default (and because the various authorities leaned on the banks to over -egg provisions).
Last year LLOY results included an impairment charge of £4.2bill, if that is totally eradicated it would have a spectacular effect on the bottom line and would (My est.) raise the EPS to between 4 and 5p per share.
DYO calc on divi/buyback, my guess, in whatever proportion, is for a notional return to shareholders of equiv. to 2.5-3.0p per share.

Story today in the FT that Merck's covid antiviral pill Molnupiravir, may not be approved by the EMA, so at the mo. only paxlovid (pfizer) and sotrovimab(GSK)are approved in the US and UK and in widespread use.

Boyo as I pointed out in a post a while ago, a significant amount of shells output is sold on forward contracts, ie if they are shrewd (and we must assume they are!)they will be putting in place deals for a significant part of their production to be made available over the next few months , or maybe longer, at prices related to , but probably a little lower than the spot price.In their shoes I would happily contract to deliver millions of barrels at prices in the 80's or low nineties . The only risk is that prices rocket higher and they forgo additional profits but IMV that is more than offset by guaranteed, highly profitable sales and smoother revenue streams.

I have posted before about my concerns with BT chairman Adam Crozier and fear that the current public enquiry in to the Post office's "horizon " fiasco may well tarnish further his already dubious reputation.I see the FT has again referenced this private eye report
https://www.private-eye.co.uk/pictures/special_reports/justice-lost-in-the-post.pdf

and draw attention to this para
"The answer was that
denial suited the priorities of both the Post Office
and the IT company.
The former, under chief executive Adam
Crozier and chairman Allan Leighton, was
desperate to turn around its finances (and in
2003/04 it managed to halve losses of £200m the
previous year). Fujitsu’s UK operations,
meanwhile, were losing friends as well as money,
as it fouled up not just Horizon but also a large
project codenamed Libra to computerise
magistrates’ courts "
which IMV is particularly damning may finally nail a serial under achiever , now this company's chairman.
As a holder I regret his appointment as seriously misguided and await developments with some concern.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/02/12/worlds-first-vaccine-against-deadly-rsv-ready-within-months/
Can't see any reference to this on this board over last few days,but it my be another billion dollar product from GSK. For those who can't read the Torygraph article I wont copy as I don't infringe copyright, but it describes a treatment for RSV - a respiratory virus which hospitalises 40k peole a year and kills 8k. It would be given to expectant mothers to protect the unborn child and to susceptible adults so there will be a huge market, at least in the developed world initially.

I posted some time ago that the key indicator to watch for RR's short term SP movement was the Heathrow flights figures. This morning Heathrow announced 600k cancellations in December, which will directly affect RR's maintenance revenues ( roughly half of their total revs) -the effect of which we will see in their next earnings report in March. Today's fall is the city's reaction to thaat info. from Heathrow.

News this morning that RIO have paid off the $2.4 mill blackmail fee extorted by the Mongolian Gov. to allow commencement of underground mining for copper at Oyu Tolgoi. Coincidentally the same sum as allocated for lithium in Serbia.First copper next year, run rate production 500,000 tonnes. I hold miners ,banks and oilies, how very old-fashioned!

ULVR have seen sense, even tho' GSK rejected the bid I think it was a full price and maybe both sides of the deal screwed up. Nonetheless , the last few days have defined the ballpark value at ~50 bill for what GSK regard as the least valuable part of an 85 bill company. GSK will now rerate slowly and if/when they get the float away the component parts should be worth a sum not too far from 100 bill representing a combined SP equivalent to near £20 .I will hold in anticipation.

Apols for the double post , I'm sitting in the business center(sic) of the Arrecife Gran where the free coffee and patisseries are excellent,(warning sexist comment ahead!), the staff are attractive and helpful but the tech and internet is cr*p!

NN your comment is valid BUT discounting is a real effect of the monetary environment , and is required to be accounted for, revenue and profit growth are hypothetical.

NN your comment is valid BUT discounting is a real effect of the monetary environment , and is required to be accounted for, revenue and profit growth are hypothetical.

The article in question doesn't include any reference to "the intrinsic value over 10years is at least £100billion.... " I know 'cos I have an FT sub and have read it!
I suspect TR needs to own up that he multiplied 10 years of revenue at £10 bill per annum to get the figure ,if so ,he has made two errors REVENUE and PROFIT are not the same thing and future revenues should be discounted in future years to allow for (rising) inflation.

I hold both GSK and ULVR, and posted on the GSK board yesterday, where I said I would probably sell here. I've decided not to for the following reasons.
If the deal goes ahead it will mean an expanded ULVR with a greater international presence in healthcare , a growing sector , particularly in the developing world which will, slowly get richer and spend more. ULVR will take on significant debt and will be forced to sell , probably some of their food brands and as a forced seller may not get top dollar. Not too appealing! BUT I am a long term holder and willing to hold some shares which are boring, low-growth , steady return and relatively safe stocks in my folio , ULVR will remain just that, and at todays 5 year lows , I will add.
However , I think there is a fair chance that the deal will fail , either because the parties cannot reach a deal on price or that ULVR is outbid, in that case a gentle SP recovery from todays levels will occur. Finally I think a failed deal might put ULVR or many of its elements in play and we could see a breakup , equally SP positive.
I will addd and wait.

I hold both GSK and ULVR and each represents about 3% of my folio-I'm up 22% on GSK and ~5% on ULVR.Here are my thoughts on the news.
There was no RNS because the talks will be described as "preliminary..exploratory.." There will be RNS's from both companies tomorrow .
I suspect that Elliot had wind of these approaches before they intervened in GSK's affairs and will stand to make a significant profit from the bounce in GSK's SP, they will comment positively soon.
The news sets a new and highish baseline for the value of GSK's consumer division whether it be bought or spun off which is significantly good news for GSK and will very positively affect the SP.
It is bad news for ULVR ,smacking of desperation to move a slumbering giant forward and will sharply negatively affect the SP. They must now know a minimum of 10% more will be needed at best to clinch a deal and their debt position will look pretty
grim.I will probably try to sell in the morning hoping to escape at B/E or thereabouts
I am happy to hold GSK expecting , at least in the short term , expecting to see a double figures percentage bounce in the SP

I posted a few days go about LLOY's intention to call in some of their very expensive borrowing taken out some years ago in the wake of the GFC, most of it a ffr perp .dollar denominated at 12% ( RNS 4Jan).For unknown reasons that post seems to have been deleted. The point I was making was that recent PRA rulings have given LLOY the opportunity to sharply reduce their cost of capital which they have grabbed with both hands.
Yesterday another RNS set out new borrowing of 500 mill at 2% ,a further step to reduce borrowing costs. The SP is responding as you would expect of a set of actions which reduce borrowing costs for the foreseeable future by hundreds of
millions per annum.I don't predict SP's but would be surprised , absent major new news, to see the price fall back much from here.

I have just flown Newcastle to Arrecife, and the plane was only a quarter full , chatting to staff, they had plenty of time!, they said this has been true for weeks and bookings for the usually busy, Xmas/new year period were low and they were getting more cancellations than new bookings and would be reducing flights .So not looking at all promising for flight stats for All airlines, travel co,s and RR.
The good news is that I will be offline for some weeks as I too am cruising,aboard the Senora casa, but she is only 12 metres long and has limited internet access .
Hasta luego