Member Info for casapinos

Short term SP movements are essentially random, as they rely on the collective judgements of many thousands of individuals and the ever -present possibility of "events dear boy " to quote Harold Macmillan. The consequence of this is that NO-ONE can predict with any degree of accuracy where a given SP can go within hours or days , in the same way that no-one can predict this weekends lottery numbers or the spin of a roulette wheel. Some may be lucky for a while and get it right a few times , but I repeat, no-one gets it right consistently enough to make and keep a profit . Those who benefit from the stock market are more Warren Buffet than the professional gamblers , the succesful ones who only compete in an environment where they have an "edge " ie poker.

An aside on buybacks and the effects on SP's
These two papers (OK they're longish and in some places complex , so read the frist couple of pages ......)

https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/documents/research/research-sp-examining-share-repurchases-and-the-sp-buyback-indices.pdf
and...
https://www.yardeni.com/pub/buybackdiv.pdf

illustrate two things , first that in the worlds biggest market company buybacks drive a very significant portion of the entire trade, I've seen (but currently can't find the reference ) that at times buybacks are 75% of US trades,remeber the mega caps have way more money than the rest of us, and second that companies which buyback in significant quantities out perform the rest , so over time us , the shareholders benefit.
I strongly suspect that the CFO's of the UK's major companies know this!

This is what RDSB said in the RNS
"The cash proceeds from this transaction will be used to fund $7 billion in additional shareholder distributions after closing, with the remainder used for further strengthening of the balance sheet. These distributions will be in addition to our shareholder distributions in the range of 20-30% of cash flow from operations. The effective date of the transaction is July 1, 2021 with closing expected in Q4 2021."
It both EXPLICITLY says "distributions" and references back to the commitment to add this to the already committed Divi regime based upon 20-30% of cash flow.
It cannot be any clearer , assuming the deal completes, there WILL be a special divi of (my est 60-70p, depending upon no. of shares in issue at that time,subject to the existing buy back programme and the £:$ exchange rate).

JTT Despite 30 years of investing and a long and mostly fruitful spell of trading options, i'm no expert on the details of market making etc., but I do know that on occasion when there is real or suspected news about to break or in very volatile markets the bid/ask can widen dramatically, as insurance for the MM's against a sudden spectacular move . Now in many/most cases the panic passes and the spread reverts to normal. Sadly that is no compensation to those whose stop is actioned, so as I say I rely on my own judgement.Those of you who have read my posts here over the years and some of my stories of hits and misses, will know it is not always completely sound !

JTT most things which look strange in the market are a result of incompetence, or tevchnical failure rather than malfeasance, a "flash crash" or "fat finger" trade causes a momentary major shift in the price of a commodity , be it a bond, a share , a bushel of wheat or a barrel of oil. That is the main reason why I NEVER use stop losses, I prefer an alert which "pings " me when something significant , either accidental or deliberate happens which affects the value of my holdings(either positive or negative)and then I can exerciese my judgement as to my response. It is a strategy I recommend.

Geta f I am quite happy not to hear about any of your buys or sells, if however you have sound factual information to offer on any stock I will read and evaluate. I do not treat these boards as a pi**ing contest .
Best wishes.

Boyo I was (I thought obviously ) being facetious,whatever getafs postion in RDSB is , I find ostentatious displays of wealth or ultra shrewd investment tasteless , whether true or not, and in this case, based on getafs relatively short posting history which includes a recent failure to understand the difference between RDSB and RDSA, IRO Dutch withholding tax ,implausible. That, to be honest, is my default position with all posters.

Lets be fair to getaf... !He says he bought over £50k of RDSB 18 months ago almost exactly at the date and time of a 25 year low, using funds he had built up in his ISA, and he has succesfully traded the stock within his ISA from an initial outlay of ~£50k to a sum much more than double that in little over a year,while the stock has traded in a tight range between about 1200 -1400 p. Pretty impressive! Maybe he has an ISA worth a million, if not he now holds a very substantial portion of his ISA in one stock,which has very clear enemies in the green lobby.Pretty brave !
I fully intend to watch his posts wiht much more interest in the future!

Dmors .. well done, that was a remarkably polite way of saying "he's talking bo**ocks" and your invocation to have a pinch , or even a bucketful, of salt handy is good advice!

The RNS says"The cash proceeds from this transaction will be used to fund $7 billion in additional shareholder DISTRIBUTIONS (my caps) after closing, with the remainder used for further strengthening of the balance sheet. These distributions will be IN ADDITION TO (my caps again) our shareholder distributions in the range of 20-30% of cash flow from operations. The effective date of the transaction is July 1, 2021 with closing expected in Q4 2021. So that IMV clearly means a special divi (of about 60-70p by my calc)early next year, not buybacks and that makes sense , the news will drive the SP up in the short term and perhaps other divestments are in train as part of the " Greening" process, so buybacks have less benefit.

Doing it again Falky
" You sold at the low point Jul-aug which is driving you insane" another lie which I have already refuted, but just in case your memory is fading

SEE this posted 5 September
"Falky yet again I will post a reply to your incorrect info and then leave the field to you,. I didn't sell in June or july or August and at no point have I said I would.
On 19 august (SP 111p) I said " day to buy/add"
On 23July (SP 97p) I said "I am invested and will probably be adding"
Other than to correct your, (presumably deliberate) lies I will not respond again, I have much better things to do with my time.

See

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/sep/17/gsk-teams-with-kings-college-to-use-ai-to-fight-cancer

Deeply saddened to hear that , Tho' I own a property near ADUK in France we never got to meet in person. His stories of the oil world and poker playing lightened this board . I hope he finds a casino wherever he's gone!
RIP

Feel duty bound (yet again) to refute a claim made by Falky which is demonstrably untrue.
" The yank paid 350p for RR just before the covid "
Here is a copy of a post I made on 5th September which sets out the position more accurately.

"Falky I do not intend to get in to an online argument with you BUT rather than rattling off unsubstantiated guesses , why don't you analyse the copious data which is IN THE PUBLIC DOMAIN.
eg Causeways holding was not above 3% (the lowest notifiable level) until 04/05/20 at which point they declared a 5% interest (about 100 mill shares)
There are RNS's on 14/07/20 and 03/09 20(when the SP was about 200-220p) showing their holding growing from 5 to 6 and then 7%
By the time of the RI they held ~7% of RR's stock so they benefitted from the RI for at least 140 mill shares. The fact that they still hold a big single figure percentage of the stock illustrates they must have taken up the RI in full( see the calculation I offered earlier )otherwise they would have been diluted.
This is that calculation
"Remember if they bought pre RI then they got 10 shares at 32p for every three they held, so their average price will be WAY below that .The article referenced is from March 2020 well BEFORE the RI.Worst case, if they held at average of 350 pre RI they now average ~105p if you can't work it out for yourself here it is .
(3x350) +(10x32)=1370
1370/13=105.38
SO I stand by my view, backed up by evidence not conjecture ,that their price average is likely to be way lower than their original purchase and almost certainly below 100p.
Not all purchases are notifiable by RNS , only those which breach a boundary and all II's know this and exploit it.

I don't do price guesses for tomorrow or next week or next month ......in fact I don't do price guesses at all (I use the word guesses because that is what they are , NOBODY can predict with any certainty what a future price at a future date and time will be).What I do do is to buy and hold secure investments for the long term.I am sitting with a holding in LLOY accumulated at a ten year low last year(OK strictly speaking about an eight year low ) and I intend to do what I did last time LLOY fell into the twenties, that was 2011,and the time before that in 2009 and on the day after the brexit vote..... ,and that is buy and .......... wait . I am almost 80% up, but LLOY is still below its average in the years 2014, 2015, 2016 , 2017, 2018, 2019.......you get the picture. It will IMV at some time in the next two years (or so, I can wait)return to something approaching double its current value and maybe or maybe not, I will sell. What I won't do is turn up here every day predicting tomorrows price!!
Have a good evening all (with regards to all the much less patient posters!!)

Dai see
https://www.londonstockexchange.com/help/whats-issuer-profile-overview#what-is-trades-table-

scroll down for types of trades

Short term gas prices going through the roof, if RDSB sign up some medium term supply deals at these or even lower prices(as I am sure they will), their quarterly revenues will be significant from now until at least next spring. Oil and gas are going to be the prime sources of GUARANTEED energy supply for at least a couple of decades, ignore the misguided green lobby , the numbers will be what matter here.

My post of last night is obviously out of date . i am currently in Harrogate at a wealth mangaement conf.and with shoddy hotel internet! When I posted at 21.53 last night the previous psosts in this thread were not showing . It looks like RR might have a deal, though reading the original Spnaish is slightly less positive than the transalation , in suggesting that both the Spanish and the Basque governments appeared to prefer the Cinven option and still hold a right of veto over Bain , who are apprently planning to "sell on" almost immediately parts of the equity to others. it is also clear that sale price of 1.6 bill Euros (about £1.3bill ) is less than RR had hoped.
Won't be back on here all day - too busy! , but will read this pm.
GLA

Forfaiter ...The first mention I can find of RR's plans to sell ITP(the largest part of its planned disposals) is JUNE 2019
see
https://www.eastmidlandsbusinesslink.co.uk/mag/featured/rolls-royce-in-talks-to-sell-stake-in-spanish-subsidiary/
that suggests to me that they are struggling to dispose of the asset that constitutes three quarters of their proposed revenue raising programme and todays news suggests that they are turning elsewhere to raise cash . There is no imminent deal for Bergen so the anticipated £2 bill is still a hope rather than realised cash.

Bot.....I hold Apple and have made a fortune dealing Tesla out of the money calls over the last three years BUT they have an enormous, if misguided, hype behind them, RR does not! And by the way I really do read the full accounts of all the companies I invest in....what in RR's accounts do you wish to draw my attention to?