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SP is suffering some turbulence this morning!

I've just added a few at under £10.

Jet2 has for many years held very large amounts of customer deposits; their FD, Gary Brown seems to be a very competent guy, and responsible for some of the best money management strategies around.

I have bought back in here in recent weeks on the basis that, at some point in time, normality will resume, people will carry on taking holidays, and this very well-run company will profit. One particular thing I have always admired about the company is its very shrewd cash management. Two aspects of that are particularly relevant at the moment: the holdings of customer deposits as cash in the bank and the forward hedging of fuel costs. Each is highlighted in today's RNS. Jet2 has notified NET CASH of £ 2 billion, no doubt lodged in deposits earning a significant sum at today's elevated interest rates, with a consequent positive impact on the bottom line.

The other element is that they have 87% of their fuel requirement for the summer trading period hedged at an average cost of $707 per metric tonne. I am assuming that means KEROSENE ( ie aviation fuel), and if so, that (allowing an estimate for the cost of the fuel conversion process) is by my reckoning in the region of $85 -$90per barrel of oil. That looks like pretty sound cost management in the current climate.

The market is feverish at the moment, and I have no idea what this morning's reaction will be, BUT I am happy to hold and expect a significantly higher SP over time.

Today's RNS see

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/JET2/trading-update/17568172

Currently not holding here, but as ever, watching. I've been doing some research on the probable value of OCDO's IP if anyone should be thinking of a T/O bid at this valuation. My research suggests that, absent any value in existing contracts, OCDO's IP is worth conservatively £ 1.5 -£ 2.0 billion.As the furore over AI grows, I suspect the likelihood of someone taking a punt on OCDO rises.

I'm in the middle of a long sojourn in the Canaries, and won't be investing until the new FY, but once again(seventh/eighth time?)I may well dabble.

News of a new "help to buy" has put a rocket under builders SP today, confirmation would add 10/20%, denial, would subtract 5%.I will hold , for the longer term , even if it doesn't happen,still confident there's significant upside here.

I sold yesterday,having made a 10% short term profit in the belief that BP's turd polishing exercise might not be enought to convince the markets today, we shall see.....

I posted a while ago that I had taken profits on 40% of my holding,the market appears to be doing the same, assuming no deal,or at best a post close extension which means several more months before they receive RIO shares for their GLEN shares.Todays fall suggest that, at best ,a deal in a few months MAY occur , meanwhile Miners shares will follow the price of minerals which may be nearing a top.Short answer , I don't KNOW.......

Ther will NOT be a deal announced today.IT is HIGHLY PROBABLE, but not certain, that between 4.30 pm and 5.00pm an announcement of a continuation of discussions will be made.IF THAT DOESN'T HAPPEN Glen SP will open tomorrow very sharply down.IF it does happen we are in for several more weeks of waiting.Anyone who quotes a takever price in CASH has not read the various announcements. RIO are intending to issue billions of new shares to "pay" for GLEN.That is likely to drive down the RIO sp if/when an announcement is made.I'm holding for now, but watching th GLEN sp drift as doubt creeps in.

The offer,if/when it comes will be one RIO share for a fixed number of GLEN shares NOT CASH.The only way to get cash is to sell GLEN shares before the offer closes,or to take the RIO shares and sell them AFTER the offer closes(and some significant time has elapsed).I agree that it's looking VERY likely that there will be an extension and no deal will be agreed until at least march,perhaps later.

GLEN putting lipstick on their copper reserves to make them more attractive and seeking to drive up the T/O price.Both sides still discussing the share ratio .Extension likely and metal prices also responding.If GLEN gets to 530 I will sell out .There is still some risk of no deal ,

MY previous post was intended to show the form of the offer,ie 1 for 13,the numbers were based on the SP's when I posted.Depending on a host of variables, primarily , but not exclusively ,the two SP's ,it will/may differ but IMV not significantly.

The offer if/when it comes will take the form of one RIO share for every13 Glen share........

NO it is NOT.There is no deal on the table yet,the recent SP rise is anticipation of the POSSIBILITY of a deal,and the assumption that the value of it to GLEN shareholders will be worth around 550p IN RIO shares for each GLEN share.

The crucial date is 5 FEB when RIO have to "put up or shut up".If they haven't bid by then the deal lapses, and GLEN shares WILL FALL SHARPLY.If RIO offer a deal it is the up to GLEN's board to consider it and recommend acceptance or rejection to the shareholders who will be given a vote. ONLY if GLEN's board recommend acceptance and a majority of shareholders approve it will a deal occur.

There is much water to flow under the bridge before a deal is completed.....

I've taken some profits at 500p,while I still expect a deal to be done at a higher price, it will be in Stock not cash and maybe at a point when ALL miners are overvalued.I have therefore turned a decent 5 figure profit on 40% of my holding and will monitor the rest, though still quite likely to sell rather than take the all stock offer.

Some basics about takeover rules and implications.

In a takeover situation , real or prospective, stock exchange rules on disclosure of holdings change, thtas why you will see any more declarations.IT shows

the sort of activity that goes on every day without needing disclosure.

THe price paid in an agreed deal has NO relationship with the price of the stock at first issue, it has some relationship to the price immediately before the prospect of a deal became public.

BUT the price if/when agreed is the highest the bidder is willing to pay and the lowest the target is willing to take IF THEY CAN BE MADE TO COINCIDE.

MY guess , as noted a few days ago , is that this is likely to be in the vicinityof 550p,anything markedly different from that and either bidder or target will walk.

There are no hard and fast rules for takeover premia, but typically they are at least 20% and often more . In an industry like mineral extraction where large scale companies are few, timescales for exploration and extraction are long and expensive and demand is still growing , they can be significantly larger . IF the deal completes (and that is still a very big IF) I would expect RIO to be prepared to pay maybe 40%, given that the number of alternative targets is very limited. On the basis of the GLEN SP before announcement was around 410p, that that puts us in the area of a 550p takeout price.

I know that GLEN senior management are very tough deal makers. Read the book "The world for sale" for some background to this industry and GLEN's role in it.

The GLEN US quote is GLNCY, currently $12 .

Update on this relatively minor asset sale

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/BA./results-of-placing-of-gdrs-of-air-astana/17377257

The net is about $50million to BAE with around $40million still held subject to a 90 day lockup.

in later news see this

https://uk.investing.com/news/company-news/air-astana-to-hold-egm-on-major-aircraft-acquisition-board-changes-93CH-4445567

Air Astana with a significant plan for growth. I would guess that BAE will dispose of the rump of their holding as soon as the 90 day notice expires, for another $40 million or so.

Fromage, I don't do financial advice (except for those who pay me!!), But you're right, taken overall, takeovers are normally value destructive as the acquirer pays more for the target than the market thought it was worth...BUT In the past, I have played this situation by selling both just before the T/O and buying the acquirer some weeks after, when, normally, the SP has fallen somewhat. However, every situation is different, though any investor with a broad portfolio needs miners and copper miners, particularly.

GL

See

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/market-news/glencore-plc-rule-8-3-disclosure-procedures/17406945

All holders of more than1% of RIO or GLEN must declare their holdings. Usually, this gives a pretty clear indication of how the big boys see the bid going. Accumulation of GLEN stock, the bid succeeds, disposals.... it fails. All holders should keep an eye on the usual brisk flow of RNS's to aid their decision-making.

Glen had an intraday high above £5 in 2024 and traded above that for a while in 2022, BUT for almost ALL of the last decade, despite sound results and very capable management has traded between 200 and 400p. If the takeover/merger values it at anything above the current SP(449p as I write) it will be a big win for investors.IF the deal completes, it will create a mega miner with enormous copper assets and depending on the terms, I will buy into or accept shares in the new entity. In the meantime, I have cashed out 25% of my holding, to secure a profit either way......