Member Info for CaptainSwag

cashking- if there is substantial oil in the sandstone and it is a conventional play - then yes hur would be more attractive as a JV or takeover.

more fractured basement oil ? i don't think so. It was already a risk that no one seemed interested in. the results at lancaster and GWA unfortunately will not have improved the desire. trice's dream of putting FB on the map backfired with the poor drilling choices at lancaster and GWA

i actually dont think the CPR on its own is going to make a huge difference either way. i am expecting an upgrade from the kitchen sink. the issue is how they are going to get to the oil? we had billions before and the price still was smashed .GWA seems a dead duck. halifax and sandstone will need cash to explore. max about 30% increase in SP?

if CPR is worse - we could see 2.5p again at the very worst. so probably 2.5-4.5p range

i think production figures could have an interesting effect. stabiklisation of production and water cut at current oil prices would be a good result - and restore confidence a bit.

the elephant in the room is the forward plan to prolong lancaster and how it will be funded. i suspect our busy board are no further along on that....no doubt "conversation with stakeholders is progressing and we expect a decision by end of Q2......etc"

GLA

Great post computer. Let's face it the sp is very much a product of the rns. Endless director sells spook the market and the negative rns are the cherry on the top.. No amount of Twitter ramp will counterbalance these

bluekipper - looking at your posting history is certainly a riveting read.........

"Market makers have had the chance to walk down the SP due to nervous pi’s and a void in news."

And why would they want to do this?

well i note the clown king was saying that II are not interested due to volatile SP and large retail base....not the seemingly continual director sells then?
sorry but this has been a big factor (along with contradictory negative rns big things - potentially significantly less - unrealistic worse case scenario etc) in the decimation of the sentiment and SP
i am sick of seeing these now

slip - i agree we are in a closed period as regards director share dealings. however i do not believe this bod will buy any significant share holdings. they have had plenty of opportunity in the last 6 months. not a problem if they do their job - unfortunately the evidence seems that they havent been

slift - my guess would be the same as your. Friday too.

i am guessing someone gave them a rollocking over not having produced it by end of Q1 - and no update to boot. Good.

well the suspense drags on...

urraca - having been involved in AIM for sometime - when a company gives a before date it usually goes to the wire. i expect that now - so no dramas for me so far.
i suspect the CPR companies drag it out to try and justify their fees..i bet if they needed it done quicker they could - they are basically using the company's data.

the obvious question is if it is delayed - will hur bother to inform PI? they may wait for their operational update and include any delay in that

The CPR should be an improvement on the kitchen sink - so sneaking it out over easter would presumably be bad news. As usual never dull with hr

GLA

Albie - I feel your pain mate. it just looked so good when they were producing oil at first and had the GWA drills lined up etc etc.
i then believed the company on the "perched" water issues as they said results were better than expected....as the price steadily dropped ....my bad.....trust the market not what any company says!

well my prediction of CPR as this week at the earliest came true..the question is when?

just hope they dont plan to sneak it out close to easter

bushmaster - i agree on the CEOs of some companies. I have faith it will sort itself out in time - well next 2 months anyway!

Bush - we had almost 25% drop fro where we were before rnsgate.. The difference is that we were 78p or so a few days ago rather than being at a £1.
Sorry I am going to disagree with you on Ck. If he is not going to get involved when there is negative sentiment such as directors selling as he is tweeting big things... Then he shouldn't get involved if market heats up on better sentiment...
He needs to learn to sell the company.. He is in sales after all...

one word - inconsistent

Twitter (pre director sells)- BIG things coming
RNS (on transformational news we had been waiting for a long time for) - could be substantially less
interview - worst case is not a realistic scenario - so why the highlight in the rns?

A lot of damage was done with that RNS ...However looks like he has realised his error. fingers crossed

thanks tuxedo. I hope your long term investment works out too. I was a LTH and suffered 90% loss on some of my holding as i built up on the way up to 60p. I made it worse by trying to average down on the way down too - believing trice completely that results were better than expected etc etc. I managed to recover some by some nifty trading. I still have a huge soft spot for hur - even though it is not the same garden shed experiment by the formerly considered temperamental genius....and really hope it can sort itself out. I would like to be back in holding and also trading

tuxedo - better than expected CPR?

I suspect the general expectations are that the CPR is going to be an improvement on September's kitchen sinking....so i am not sure what you mean by better than expected?

i have said all along that in my opinion the CPR will notify a larger resource of oil in the sandstone. I think it will be conventional play which will give hur a more attractive proposition to try and attract other parties. i am not sure how much of an SP increase the CPR could give - but i would think max 30%

however the fact remains that it is the current production v bubble point that is the significant worry. if this had been sorted out then the bonds would in my opinion possibly/probably sorted themselves out . if things have got worse then this could hit optimism from the CPR. conversely water cut stabilisation and improved cash could add to SP raise.

as per usual it is all in up in the air with hur...i said last september that by the law of averages the next rns had to be a good one after a year of bad after bad....i was wrong then but i hope not for this one- lth deserve a break.

watching next week with interest - though not expecting to get back in as i still want to hear how funding forward plan will happen - and i doubt this will be in any RNS.

GLA

agreed achilles - no policing when the share dived on the negative sentiment of the director sells etc he should be focussed more on getting that launch done - and selling stuff.

but the CK is either not honest or a clown. You can't say "big" things are coming and hit twitter just as your other directors are about to sell. then say substantially less in an rns. He has damaged his and the company's reputation.
the gov is awarding billions and yet He says the odx award could be substantially less - £50m mark rather than £374m. sorry but if you can't sell all your lft in a pandemic it is like not being able to sell your last cold pepsi in the desert..hardly the sign of brilliance.

he showed his lack of knowledge of the stock market. it was never going to rocket...but it should have got us above £1 ..my guess £1.30 tops..then the inevitable drop would still have kept it above £1. it would also have attracted new investors. any new investors are now looking at odx and wondering if it is a basket case.

it should still come good.....selling water in the desert....but it might be despite the management. there next steps will be watched very carefully.

good find joe...

slift i agree - would be nice to know if downgrade or write off? i always treated GWA as a write off but then they have taken so long to let us know that the optimist in me wondered if it could just still go ahead.

CPR is close - if they are on schedule. wonder if they will give operational progress as wel?

GLA

bangbang - the news was good this week but unfortunately a lot of damage had already been done by previous RNS/Director sells....
i do think the sell off this week is down to the end of tax year - tidying up accounts etc.

should recover after new tax year begins which will hopefully coincide with news on gov contract choice and figures

GLA

slift - i am not sure hur need CPR for the forward works plan of sidetrack /water injection - as they had advised that the forward plan would be announced in dec and the CPR was always pencilled in for end of q1. so it does not seem to me as if it were dependent. they certainly have not used it as an excuse for delaying plan which would have been convenient

it would seem to me that they have not been able to get bondholders to stump up cash and so A Forward plan could not go ahead. I still think they should have made a firm decision on what is was going to be and then sold it to bondholders or else look elsewhere. maybe they did? but i suspect not as they do seem a bit indecisive. lets face it they get paid whatever so not as if any hardship for them.

the CPR i am sure will be to quantify the sandstone and label it as more conventional play . This may then be used to attract a JV for lancaster - someone who would not be put off by the riskks of Fb?
it will also give a bit more of a picture of the remaining assets. Halifax was always the big one - i would expect it to be upgraded in terms of resources from the kitchen sink projections

i suspect the missing of this years weather window will give them a few months to try and flog the results of the CPR before they have to finalise 2022 work plan .
hopefully POO stays up and extends bubble point until a clear plan can be made.

anyway that my thoughts for what it is worth...i am out of date on hur now that i am out. just check in occasionally to see a reentry point if plans look good.

GLA