Member Info for CaptainSwag

eal - there will be a time to make legitimate profit on ODX . Personally I feel there is a lot of pump and dump going on at the moment. others have to make their own mind up

harvey f - it is not the rose tinted brigade that are the issue now but those who are trying to pump the SP to get out.

in my view the SP is still too high for current income.

wad - - in the rns

"Given the outlook on COVID manufacture for the UK Government is uncertain, it is prudent for us to re-size this aspect of our LFT manufacturing capacity to meet current and future demand. Accordingly, we would expect to have a lower cost base in the second half of the year"

jimi - i can only go by what you write - which was quite contradictory

if you read the who link

"Studies are ongoing to determine whether there is any impact on other types of tests, including rapid antigen detection tests. "

so without knowing this i doubt there will be any fast tracking or relaxing of regulations. the new variant could throw a spanner in current lft tests

i think part of the problem with the uk is that they possibly worry so much about reputation and the highest possible accuracy that they would rather hide behind cheap chinese tests than risk approving something that might turn out to be less than triple platinum standard.

"But there has been no definitive statement from ODX that any
chance of manufacturing for the govt. is now dead in the water..it's not"

If you listened to Colin in his presentation he made it pretty clear the deal is dead . I don't see why you are trying to read something between the lines . unless you have an agenda? not an issue if you do but just be honest as this is something which you have constantly thrown at others on here

CD4 is desperate talk . yes there may be more profit per unit but again it depends on sales - and they were talking about 2023. so that will not underpin current mcap at this time. we also all know that odx weakness is sales - so when they talk about possible income in x years it is hardly a banker.

at this moment in time covid tests are the driver. we still need more approvals and more contracts before the light will shine at the end of the tunnel. the problem is when will this come - we are 4 weeks from xmas so may not be until next year

"If anything the new variant will speed up CTDA approvals. The government will want the highest quality LFT and PCR tests to be available in the UK, not held up by new regulations... they might even temporarily relax CTDA.

jimi - so they want highest quality - and this is got by relaxing CDTA to speed up approvals.
once again you are operating at a much different level than the rest of us.

"Once again people seem to be twisting and turning to come up with some scenario that meets their story, rather than accepting that the company has said in a formal notification to the market that the contract is expired, and as a result the company are reducing their LFT capacity."

100% agreed. and this will potentially be dangerous. there may well be some uplift this week - but it could all come crashing down again. the question is - what value would you give odx at this moment in time.

there is possibly plenty to play for in the future if/when approvals come through and they can sell stuff....but that could be some way off. without news this could fall more

shredz as always has some interesting points

i agree on the margins being too small - when a 3rd party was involved - hence the talks dragging out. would colin have been better to just grab something and get the exposure? work generates work...guess we will never know

i think if shredz has given up on gov contract - then there is very little hope!
i do agree the only way sell anything to gov is if they have visitect approval -

As i said before i don't think the new variant has helped us in that respect either - i can only see more delays in lft approvals whilst the new variant is digested

mars - your post is very interesting .

i suspect thzat colin wanted clarification on the contract status before the presentation. i still think he possibly tried and failed to get an answer out of gov. then went to a lawyer to see if they have any hold over government and found the opposite that the contract had expired .

however the use of the equip for odx personal use could be the bonus

another concern though - with the new variant won't this just set back any lft approvals such as CDTA? are they going to approve tests without knowing if they can pick up the new variant?

I suspect the date of any extension to the long stop date would be key..but odx are not giving that out.

I think Colin could have said contract has expired but we are in dialogue with gov over the implications. If he said it was over and the price crashed and then he reverses ..I think he would be in a lot of trouble.

I suspect the giving up of the contract was not taken likely...as I said before it is a bit of a moot point if the contract is dead or not as it looks like Colin has accepted it won't be used...they can't produce OG and don't have their own test approved.

I suspect give it a week and we will be back to where we were before ...the new variant will be more transmissible but no deadlier...touch wood

Blu..agreed
Tbh
I really wish some of the stuff I post wouldn't come true....

This board has become a lot more civilised. Good to exchange ideas whether you agree or not ..without the abuse

Big bang's..reasonable logical thinking. But if we can't do OG manufacturing and still no approval on our own test then I am not sure there will be the news people want.

More than likely loads of Twitter speculation driving buying...only for Tuesday to have an RNs with official confirmation that contract has expired. The gov will have known about the dates even if odx didn't. They could have extended it before the final date if they want.

Sorry - just my take on it. But hey I could be wrong

"it is much easier for DHSC to extend the contract, costing them nothing, "

I suspect it is much easier for them to do nothing. They have Chinese test surplus and can always buy more if necessary. They don't care about odx

I suspect Colin is also not used to his every word being scrutinised and people investing serious amounts of cash.

He really strikes me as someone who does have a clue about the aim game...and the possible consequences of a slip of the tongue.

Even now he spelt out contract is over ...and there will no doubt be people buying this week in the hope that the gov and extend the contract.

Big bang's - personally I think we have to wait and see how current lfts fare with new variant. Hopefully they will be fine. It is a moral struggle wanting current tests to fail so odx can benefit...but this has been with me throughout.
I hear what you say about our test being better quality and I agree. The issue as always is that odx don't have any approval other than pro test in EU which is being sold by dam

I am sure there will be more twists and turns in the odx story..and hopefully in time the SP will recover to a certain extent...investor speculation and sentiment could lead to some good trading opportunities especially this week

My concern is what the true value of odx is at the moment ...I have made some ball park calculations and listened to a investor / trader I respect. So have decided the figure I am comfortable at

Just be careful out there...and weigh up the opinions on all sides

no worries kate

"his main aim was to build the company capacity up"

i am guessing that with no contracts and approvals he was reluctant to build up capacity on a regular basis -cost/storage/use by date factors.

i listened to all those saying odx were churning out masses every week - "they cant be sitting round doing nothing" etc and never believed it. they would have run out of storage space by now. besides the car park never seemed to have more than 40/50 cars unlikely if they had 250 staff.

"but Omega must have a black Cat hanging out in their empty industrial units, they just can’t get a break."

Amen to that!

kate - my posts are only ever my opinions , suppositions and guesses - so not to be taken with any more weight than that. i agree we have been misled but on purpose? i don't know and would be impossible to prove.

i know you had gone through my history with HUR - and that defo was manipulation and strategy against shareholders in my opinion - as supported by the judge siding with PI in the court cases