Member Info for CaptainSwag

"Can you really see a 220% increase by then, swag?"

yes...if it gets towards the court case then there will be interest by pump and dump crews and the herd etc. the possibility of £2.50 would tempt some.

one of the reason i believe that the sp has crashed is that a lot willing to gamble on a good result will think it is too far away....to just let your money sit there doing nothing for a year

unfortunately the company have given no indication of good news being imminent or even in the relatively short term. so difficult to improve sentiment

P100- yep.

the company really need to do something.....

"assuming they keep all their current cash, get all the money owed, plus, costs, plus compensation? what price sp then? 600p ?"

i remember doing a back of a *** packet calculation and came up with £2.50 plus.

i don't think the market can realistically at the moment use the scenario of a range between bust and £2.50 and therefore price it currently at an average of £1.25. i think there is a possibility it may go towards this as the court date gets closer....and there is speculation of what if ncyt win? and the herd arrives on a gamble

at the moment it is too far away.

Compensation for what?

at least wear a mask if you are going to mug me...................

Assuming the binary bet of they win and keep all their current cash v lose the lot..

I don't think the market would count the possibility of a win at this stage....the big question is how much of the cash they have is really theirs?

I would accept the market hedging it bets at half the cash - which gives 60p

why i bought more the other day - as i said i can see this going back there . (eventually)

"I've never seen this sort of thing before and it suggests a combination of the market expecting novacyt to lose the dispute (in its entirety) with a >50% chance plus a cash burn for the next five years. In reality it's just priced stupidly because of sentiment being as low as it's possible to get and no clear sign of a turning point catalyst."

i think the market was hedging its bets at 50p/60p ish where it sat for awhile.

which i could understand ..not wanting to commit one way or the other.

the drop to 40s was due to another awful presentation with no clear forward strategy.....at least DA added dressing to the salad.

there is no way the market can know which way the case will go - i just think there is no appetite for any retail buying.

what we desperately need is some director buys

"So, you are wanting it rise now then ?"

I have always wanted it to rise...

i guess you are trying to imply that i was "talking" down the share before and now i have topped up i want it to rise. Again you seem to have a problem accurately reading what is written - because you are seemingly constantly looking for another conspiracy theory angle. my comments have always been a reflection of the sp and the state of the company

my opinion on the share has not changed . salad man was a disaster and set us back over a year ....the continual lack of progress / strategy for the post covid portfolio is embarrassing

tbh nothing has changed on that score

i think/hope we are the bottom. the share price won't be affected by what i write on here...it will be what it will be.

i am now running at a loss on my recent purchases as well as what i have held for a couple of years

I"ts shareholders" is the one thing they are not doing and instead more... #lookingafterthemselves imo

However the main reason, I continue to hold (and indeed acquire), is because they are being so negative, to PI's."

You do know it Is AIM right ?

I would not see lack of interest in pi as a sign of big things coming and load up.

If you think there is a good chance of dispute going in our favour or you are happy with the portfolio and / or progress ..then fine.

Otherwise maybe you are over thinking it?

"Open Question Why can't BOD tell us what the dispute is all about. "

as far as i am aware - they are still under NDA.

i am hoping if it does go to court then it will be open - but would not be surprised if it were held in camera.

I thought cash was put aside to remedy the issues that were being brought up by the gov?

In which case it shows an unwillingness on the govs half to compromise and come to an amicable conclusion. This I think will go down poorly with a judge.

It seems to me that maybe the gov got a product they preferred to use instead ..for whatever reason..and then tried their best to get the money back.

I suspect they will try to play the " public money" card and that they have a responsibility to get the most from it or save as much as possible.

However in a commercial law court.. I suspect that a contract is a contract.

I think ncyt will want to avoid losing cash in bank...and the gov will want to save on paying out on the outstanding invoices. So I think a compromise will be made...but a lot closer the finish line.

Thank you.

P100..a pump and dump...is usually where there is generated speculation on a huge positive...eg the time when Omicron became a worry and people saying that the tests would be needed again.then the reality hits home and the general dump begins ..obviously the initiators are already out

As they have got in and then keep pumping it whilst they are selling at a profit .

I really don't think ncyt is on Any pump and dump crew radar...as there is currently very little to generate froth on.

Nearer the court case date quite possibly/ probably...would be an ideal time..

But we are over a year away

Just market mechanics.

Wb...yes bought about £23k ish .

I am not sure if it will be a long term hold eg average down or just a trade.

I can't see news of dispute any time soon ...should it go against us...

I can't see how they can make any less progress or issue less news.

So feel this is pretty much the bottom.

Though as I said earlier that is always a danger with ncyt!!!!

P100...I don't see any evidence of an orchestrated pump and dump? Seen nothing on Twitter and everyone here has maintained their usual stance as far as I can see.

There are just market mechanics at play...price gets hit quite a bit and then settles and bounces back a bit etc etc

I am sure some like Me felt that we might have been at the bottom..and so took the opportunity for a trade or top up.

That is a very different outlook than people pumping a share to dump.

Let's just hope that the company don't do another presentation any time soon! Lol

They always manage to destroy sh value

Mik..on aim a 10% loss is always a lot easier than a 10% gain...or a 100% gain

You have to take into account the spread..as often you are nearly 10% down as soon as you buy

I am not involved in any pump and dump groups.

just feel we have reached the bottom - though obviously that is quite a dangerous assumption on NCYT as we know!..lol

i can't see why did should not go above 50p again...still long way until dispute settled one way or another

sooner or later they may actually release some "progress"

of course could be completely wrong

31,973

17,077

i think we will bounce from here a bit

Nope.

A 10% gain is just as hard no matter what the sp.

P100..you have been accurate with your sp predictions..and have some fair and valid assessments on the company on here. Though obviously it is not going to be popular with holders. Like you I am just letting my decimated stake just run but that is because I believe they have a good chance in court. My only experience with a company that did go to court was very favourable for the little guy. The judge seemed fair and took a common sense view and was not bullied by the vastly mor expensive and prepared legal team on the other side .

Ctda

approval suggests there is/was nothing wrong with the product .

The recent biva report was an interesting read..and whilst it did seem in my view to favour the gov in being able to terminate contracts ...I am not sure a commercial judge will agree.

At some point this will reach the bottom and then bounce...market mechanics. Good opportunity for a trade or average down..for the first time I am even contemplating adding

As 70% of commercial litigation cases get settled before court...I suspect this will be too..though much nearer the potential court date

Anyway that is my 2 cents

"Seema the BoD like to keep the SP suppressed for some reason."

i did wonder if the whole thing could have been handled better - not taking a sledge to the sp

if i were the bod i would have been filling boots at bargain prices