Member Info for CaptainSwag

KT - So do we know which PCR tests were used instead of ncyts? and why?

I just don't see how your comment on LFT was relevant to our case? there was mass lft but you still had to have a PCR test if you tested positive with lft - so it wasn't like LFT affected the decision to stop using ncyt products

"If the media or an election campaign wants to expose the case it it could become big news."

this is true...but I fear the election will be left to the last moment by sunak eg Jan 25 and so it won't matter to us

"We all know that come July Novacyt have somewhere between £0 cash and possibly bankrupt all the way up to a £130m NET cash position, with YG fully integrated into the business at that point. At £30m mcap it makes the risk/reward far more compelling than if, say, the share price was at £1 right now."

THIS. Totally agree.

I am already exposed with a sizeable amount otherwise I would be buying more

KT - i thought the issue is that they got PCR testing that was either cheaper or more accurate?

which is fine but you can't order a whole lot of stuff and then use it or say sorry I don't want it after all

the fact that ncyt tests all achieved CTDA status - shows there was nothing wrong with the tests. and so the contract should have been honoured and payments not withheld etc

Exactly ..do as they say...not what they actually do

70% of litigation cases get settled before court

So we are entering the end game..a game of chicken to see who really believes they have the "strongest" case.

So rns could drop any day with news..or the worst case scenario ..we have 3-4 months or whatever it is until the court date. I don't believe it will be postponed .

More importantly...ncyt really should come up with some reason to keep existing holders from exiting ..and soon.

However my gut says this will not happen.

GLA

Scenario 1: Goes to court, Novacyt wins > under this scenario, I fully expect Novacyt to return cash to shareholders (versus buyback).

THINK THIS IS SHEER FANTASY. NCYT DO NOT CARE ABOUT SHAREHOLDERS UNTIL THEY NEED THEM. THEY WILL KEEP CASH - SOMETHING I DONT HAVE A PROBLEM WITH

Scenario 2: Settlement in favour of Novacyt, but not full amount. Depending on settlement amount, I also expect a one-off distribution. Cash position ~£65m-£85m

PERSONALLY I THINK IF NCYT WIN IT WILL BE FULL AMOUNT. THE DECISION OF THE COURT WILL BE BINARY - WIN OR LOSE

Scenario 3: Settlement at NIL liability both sides. This will still mean a circa £8m VAT reclaim, improving the cash position of the company. With the clarity, I still expect a small distribution, perhaps 10p, with the remaining cash used to deliver the growth needed to become profitable. Cash position ~£48m

I THINK THIS IS MOST LIKELY. BOTH SAVE FACE AND SAVE CASH.

AS ABOVE DO NOT EXPECT ANY CASH TO SHAREHOLDERS

Scenario 4: Settlement in favour of DHSC. Novacyt will not settle at any values that will compromise its going concern. So, I imagine it will be max £8-10m, countered by the VAT reclaim. Even so, it will pave the way to a clearer future. Cash position ~£35m

Scenario 5: Goes to court and Novacyt loses. Subject to appeal, game over.

ALWAYS A POSSIBILITY BUT UNLIKELY IN MY VIEWSP

I agree that most likely outcome is more cash for ncyt and a rise in SP

unfortunately due to poor management the SP is on its harris....and the reslt will not be as good as it could/should have been

"The DHSC is still dragging out the Omega lawsuit, which even stated they didnt need to pay back the £2.5M if no test was ordered, they are in a similar position but ended up selling 2/3 of the business and probably making some redundant."

not true, the £2.5m was a prepayment to odx that always needed to be paid back. it was supposed to be paid back via product.

however that did not work out. odx never understood the contract or even its expiry - they had to be informed a month later by the gov.

the gov has asked for the money back...odx have refused to return hard earned tax payers money. They both went to mediation which failed. this suggests the gov will keep pursuing odx..good publicity of them trying to recover "wasted" tax payers money. of course they pursue small uk companies whilst the large turkish and chinese contracts escape.

odx have been lucky that the gov red tape works very slowly. They are sensible in trying to bluff the gov with a claim for damages but imho they will end up having to pay some if not all the money back

Great post atan

1) No received commission announced for the "Crown Jewels" that were sold in a fire sale.

YEP..AS YOU PREVIOUSLY POINTED OUT LOOKS LIKE A MAX OF £40K FOR 3 MORE YEARS. NOWHERE NEAR THE MAX OF £1M

2) No evidence of takeover and flatly denied by board (because who the hell would want to buy it?)

THIS IS JUST RUBBISH SPOUTED BY 5-0

3) No settlement with the hard working taxpayer for the #2.5m squandered

IMHO THEY WILL NEED TO PAY BACK SOME IF NOT ALL OF £2.5M

4) No dramatic news for US market otherwise we would have an RNS - this means they have less presence than in 2018

YEP. NO SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL CONTRACTS IN THE "TARGET MARKET"

5) No CFO appointed - Near 6mths without a CFO? Non exec helping out fill the gap but rather poor for a listed company and speaks volumes about one of CNSLs problems - lack of governance and accountability.

YEP SAYS VOLUMES

6) No App development news and questions over its compliance that haven't been answered

NO ONE WILL FIND APP ANYWAT WITHOUT SOME ADVERTISING. SMOKE AND MIRRORS

7) No bought in gut microbiome test currently in market (not on website anyway and no RNS despite this being targeted for launch last year)

8) Ex CFO moved to a well funded, well organised company in the GMB space - an example of how a big potential market is already being dominated by better companies

YEP HE WAS THE ONLY ONE WITH ANY TALENT IMHO AND HE JUMPED SHIP ASAP

9) No relocation and the finite resources that were deemed not suitable previously is providing sufficient capacity (what does that mean idiots?)

10) Another loss making year predicted by the board AMEN TO THAT

11) Nothing much left in the cupboard to sell off and cannot dilute the shares - something that has been keeping this company going for 7 years.

IMHO THERE WILL BE A SHARE CONSOLIDATION AND PLACING - ESP IF CNSL HAVE TO PAY BACK HARD WORKING TAX PAYERS FOR MONEY OWED

Nothing to see here. Wait for the green stripe losers to arrive and attack me rather than address the facts

YEP THE ONE WHO LIVES ON HERE DID EXACTLY AS YOU PREDICTED

Oh dear..the sp drifting down again

As we told you it would

Company says no takeover ..anyone with half a brain says no takeover.

Why would posters on here suggest a few decent..not big..but decent buys means a takeover?

Could it be they are trying to spark a rumour so so goes up and they get out?

Asking for a friend

Atan - i respond to some on here because they are disingenuous with their lies and distortions - so they need to be countered

we all know there is one poster who i clearly ignore ...even though they pounce on every post i make within 20 mins and are clearly obsessed. Every now and again i react- I shouldn't but hey only human

but you are right...just ignore...normal service resumed

if you wrestle with pigs you just get muddy and the pig enjoys it

"Evidently the people who signed it didn't read it."

amen to that.

kate - you haven't silenced me. you ask questions knowing that 99.9% of the time i ignore you. so you are only ever trying to claim a hollow victory

occasionally i break my habit - like this post...but then i go back to ignoring you.

you ask many questions that i have already answered numerous times - like why i am on here etc etc

really no point in saying it again..for you to "question" it again next week

the reality is that my being on here....my losses...etc etc mean nothing

the real question is why on earth should anyone buy in to cnsl today....and there is no reason to

Royalties of about £40k (if current sales are maintained) for 3 more years

cnsl said claiming £1m+ which suggests under £2m

more likely the gov will insist on cnsl actually paying back £2.5m of hard earned tax payers money

Tradesin - lol...quite agree!

this months target country is - throws dart - usa!

still same old sales revenue £8-9m

from over 100 countries - so a few packets here and there

question - why don't directors buy more?

if they don't - should you?

"Creation of a continuous improvement function to build on the work done by Chartwell Consulting'

So there will be a further improvement."

consultants were brought in to remedy issues with production.

we are talking about sales.

odx/cnsl have always struggled with sales. yes they give jam about 100s of countries, new target countries, sole focus , apps etc

however the sales do not ever significantly increase

which is why every year has been loss making since as long as we can all remember

"Working together to sucker new breed of investors - so they can sell out."

unfortunately this is the way it comes across.

Thanks for confirming Atan - I thought so but have watched several presentations with different companies so did not want to confuse.

it is a very good point that you make

we know the first half of the financial year was boosted by delayed orders from the previous year.

As they then said 2nd half sales would be lower - i assumed that it would mean that they had kept at the same level just be lower as the first half had been artificially boosted.

however as you said we do not know if sales had indeed gone down and so the growth has not actually be maintained

interesting...as always we will no doubt have to go through the rns with a fine tooth comb

"fighting those that are delibrately ramping based on nothing but conjecture is another."

Amen to that.

5-0 post is very disingenuous imho.

There is no indication they are busy. We know from history that even when the company did tweet "busy busy" and "big things coming" it was not the case at all.

There is no manipulation of SP - there is a lack of volume in trading as nobody particularly wants to buy and holders are not wanting to sell at a large loss.

If there were an accumulation then it would have to be subject to a TR1

there is no indication that anyone is looking to buy cnsl....and correct me if i am wrong but did the company themselves not say in a presentation that no one is looking to buy them

It would seem just made up stuff to try and lure newbies in to buying.

I hope karma isserved

"What do the sellers know that the rampers won't tell us???"

They know the most recent trading update ..and that the SP has flatlined as no news expected