Member Info for CaneToad

@Candid: "My understanding from historical studies is that there is no proven (positive or negative ) link between inflation and interest rates with the corresponding movements in the pricing of Gold"

From what I understand, that is correct. I believe though, that there is a reasonable correlation between the gold price and the **expectated** inflation level of inflation. Though I have not verified that for myself.

I agree. Gold is not yet looking all that bullish. I have a large CEY position (unerwater) and would not even consider adding to it until Gold breaks $1900. I'll gradually change my mind once it's beyond $1,930 for a week.

"US inflation expectations for the year ahead increased by 0.4 percentage point to a new record high of 5.7% in October of 2021"

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/inflation-expectations

If this doesn't do it, nothing will. It's a showdown. The moment of truth. We need to break $1830 *soon* and look as though we're going to break $1,900 by end of month.

Personally, I think it has a long way to rise yet. With the Biden infrastructure plan signed off, I expect PFAS contracts to be kicking off in the not too distant future. As far as I understand, Biden is asking for ~ $10b for that work; not sure if those funds are within the already-signed deal, but it could be huge for Mycelx, even if the final amount is much smaller.

I don't see any significant change for Mr Slater, since 6 Aug 2021.

Looks like something is happening........

Looks Like the market is taking it well.

@K3VMC: "14% on PERE + 8% arrangement fee."
“ Compare it to the 10.5% on $1b that Aston Martin Lagonda is paying.”

Exactly. I think the ARB rate is pretty respectable. Kicks the can down the road by 5 years.

Does anybody know how much they're borrowing?

The fact they've said that some of this money will be used for "acquisitions of, or investments in, complementary businesses in the cryptocurrency and blockchain technology industries"

makes me think there is NO equity raise at this time. That's just my opinion.

It is UTTERLY misleading to say the rate is anything other than 8.75%. Any quotation of the rate which is not an annualised rate is irrelevant; *NOBODY* ever quotes interest rates on a term longer than 1y. EVER.

That looks like a reasonable interest rate (8.75%). I didn't see the notional amount being offered though.

Compare it to the 10.5% on $1b that Aston Martin Lagonda is paying.

I've noticed a flurry of 'green' funds appearing; maybe it's a result of COP26. I would have thought that Tekmar would fit tinto that space nicely. Let's see. Hopefully!

@Avocet: I completely agree with you that valuation is important. My point is that BTC has doubled and ARB has not moved.

People here are working themselves into a frenzy that ARB is doing something different to the other miners, which is not true. RIOT did a raise for $600m in Sept and are selling shares daily....but people have now forgotten about it. It's all perception.

I'm just suggesting ways to structure the equity raise so as to effect *minimal* pain on investors and give you/me the opportunity to participate, to partly offset the effects of any dilution, rather than just issue everything to an institution at a vastly discounted price to the open market and screw the PI's.

I've already made my opinion known to PW. Maybe you should do the same.

The real problem is that UK investors are mostly whingers and only see negatives, while US investors see positives.

This is why UK shares are so cheap compared to US shares...and why there are few mega-tech stocks in the UK.

I think the best long-term strategy is to de-list ARB from the LSE and do a primary listing on NASDAQ and hopefully the whingers here don't gravitate to the US boards...

@Hexam: "Sorry, have to disagree as per investopia"

You're mis-quoting. You'll see that if you also include the paragraph prior to the one you quoted, which agrees 100% with what I said earlier:

"The rights issued to a shareholder have value, thus compensating current shareholders for the future dilution of their existing shares' value. "

Focus on the word *compensated*.

Furthermore, a standard equity raise does *not* have to lead to a drop in share price if the funds are used to increase income. The panic here is irrational. All of the miners have the same busines model, which is to periodically issue more shares to buy more machines. There's nothing different about ARB.

If you look at the fundamentals of this company (e.g. in Stockopedia), you'll see that it's been steadily improving for the past few years (Total Revenue, Operating Profit, Net Profit), while the debt is the lowest it's been in the past 7 years. At the same time, it's less the half the price that it was pre-covid...

I'm looking to buy more on any further pullback.

@Hexam. A discounted rights issue *offsets* the dilutive effect of the new shares. Existing investors avoid dilution by participating. These 'rights' are like an option. This is *not* the same as issuing a pile of new shares to an institutional investor, which *will* dilute existing shareholders.

https://corporatefinanceinstitute.com/resources/knowledge/finance/rights-issue/

Another possibility is that he does an Equity Rights Issue at a discounted price, allowing Private Investors to participate. That would make sense, given the very high PI percentage. That way, people would *not* be diluted, as long as you participate in the RI.

Contact PW and suggest this as an option.

I think it's a good solution.

My expectation is that PW waits a while before any equity raise. He doesn't need the money urgently. It's going to be easier to do an equity raise once the share price recovers a bit.

@iangibbins: "I think we all know dilution is coming"

To be fair, *every* bitcoin miner raises money through regular equity raises. That's the model. RIOT did a huge capital raise just a while back (it's still ongoing) and it's moving up again. I would be surprised if we don't now see some move upwards, given the extra hash and BTC rising steeply.

Shorters very active again today. Quite a bit of volatility.

Big improvement, that's for sure. Good to see the Orsted contract cmopleted on time/budget. I expect that's given some extra confidence.