Member Info for CaneToad

@the_Chuz: "Now, this one might be a daft question, what happens at the end of the 6 month galaxy loan, how do we pay if back "

Peter has mentioned a few times that they are not against eventually selling some of the BTC. It seems reasonable to me to wait until the price reaches a reasonable level, e.g. around the $100k mark.

To be fair, the company is in the best shape that it's ever been in and the price is now lower. That's the argument.

For sure, it will never ignite too much passion. It's just not the sector to do that. It's obtuse to say the least. But it's a solid company nevertheless and it produces an economically important, albeit niche chemical products. At such a tiny valuation, it has to be attractive to another chemicals company, e.g. Elementis.

Devil's advocate, I see the same old seller back again, offloading the 25k share tranches. It's difficult to see any sustained rise until he departs.

I'm beginning to think this might have bounced on 20 July.

Fundamentals look great, broker ratings looks good:
5 Strong Buy
10 Buy
7 Hold
1 Sell

Not sure what the heck is going on here.

Market Cap = 163m
Net Cash Position = £113.0m

- Strong balance sheet
- Trading profitably

Crikey!

I've been in one for a while... starting to finally look attractive enough for me to add. Upside still looks incredible, with solid analyst ratings (4 Strong Buy + 1 Hold).

I contacted Melanion Capital regarding the launch date for their Bitcoin ETF and I got the following response:

"Thank you for your email and for your interest in our ETF. All the details related to the issuance of the ETF will be posted soon"

It is a fully-approved UCITS-compliant fund available throughout Europe. Once it launches, they will be a regular buyer of ARB. Even if it's is a fraction the size of Grayscale, it will create significant buying of ARB.

Only a fool would be shorting ARB when this fund launch is imminent.

https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2021/8/10/to-the-moon-bitcoin-roarsback-fueling-100000-predictions

At some stage, ARB will move.

Just my biased opinion (I am long ARB).

@Grayem: Sure. People that move the price upwards for their own benefit are also 'questionable'. They're usually the same ones that crashed it in the first place...

Reading Flash Crash made me realise the extent to which, even the US market is gamed. It's much, much bigger than most people realise.

Ask yourself. If one guy sitting in his bedroom in Hounslow can trigger a trillion dollar crash in the US market, is it possible for a team of people to manipulate stocks on the LSE? All they need to do is signup for API access with one of the big brokers and use one of the SUPPORTED API functions to start moving the market in their favour, by queue-jumping, spoof orders and organised attacks in the media.

In case you don't know about the Flash Crash Trader, it's a fascinating story: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/explainers-51265169

I'll be doubling or trebling my position at some point, ASSUMING that the senior debt is approved. Once debt is signed-off on 31 August(?) we should (hopefully) see an improvement in sentiment.

OMG, what are the losers doing posting total tosh on this channel? Seriously, they need to get a life.

Good news - yes. I've added.
Let's see if our seller has gone though. The chart shows lower highs/lower lows; nothing spectaculart developing yet...
I'm bullish medium-long term. No idea what will happen in the next few months though. Still have plenty of dry powder in case a further buying opportunity arrises.

Bottom line is - the hedge funds laugh at the FCA, because they do nothing and are seemingly incompetent. It took me a LONG time to even get them to understand what I was talking about. And then they said nothing. I expect they DID nothing.

ARB would have sailed upwards if it was purely on a Canadian or US exchange. EVERY OTHER crypto-related share has. The lax regulation here is so well known that we even have offshore companies screwing us....

I have just added myself, but this is starting to become a joke.

Don't underestimate how much damage they can do. I (still) hold several shares that were decimated by these mongrels. TP ICap supposedly had a 12% short which some sites still show (including LSE.co.uk) and nobody seems to even know if it's real or not. I contacted the FCA, because it wasn't recorded in their official 'shorts spreadsheet' and they didn't even comment on it, but said 'sorry for the inconvenience'. They never contacted me back. After contacting the Investor Relations team at the company, they said they 'thought' the short might have been a mistake... in the meantime, their share price has been destroyed and investors are heavily down.

Then there's Premier Oil, that a Hong Kong fund decimated by not declaring a *massive* short. The FCA eventually fined them £873k. They'd apparently been shorting it for years. Lots of people bailed and lost a pile of dosh, because the shorters almost drove the company into the ground.

Then there's Manolete Partners and Network International that were/are being attacked by the Dark Destroye* of Shado* Fall fame. I'm surprised that he hasn't arrived *here*. Then there's Bab****, which was attacked by the Boatman.

Make no mistake - these shorters can do an incredible amount of damage and cost YOU real money. It's possible these lurkers are around, even if they don't declare their positions. They're devious bastar*s.

These wealth destroyers are total mongrels and need to be taught a lesson.

See Bloomberg: "Bitcoin Roars Back, Putting $100,000 Predictions in Vogue Again"

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-08-10/bitcoin-roars-back-putting-100-000-predictions-in-vogue-again

MoneyMan80: "Anyone else have the feeling bitcoin is ready to have another pump up"

YES. I think it's going to pump, but it's possible that there could be a pullback in the short-term if you give any significance to the rising wedge that's been formed. In all probability, I think it's more likely to explode upwards this week. $50k is my expectation/short-term target.

@Keeponlosing: "Best way to stop your shares being lent out is to hold them in an ISA, which you should be doing anyway"

How does this stop them being lent out? I have my ISA with Hargreaves Lansdown, but I think they hold all shares in a common pool and I would be surprised if they don't lend these out to generate a bit of extra income. Maybe I'm wrong on this and if so, am happy to be corrected.

Thanks
Toad

I'm starting to form an opinion that West Face are milking this company dry. They need to go. I see that they're going to repay the senior secured loan at some expense to get rid of them. I'll need to dig deeper into the total number of warrants outstanding. I'm not 'too' worried about 8m (which is only ~7% of the total shares).

Yes, I should have done this a long time ago. Luckily I only have a modest position (1% of my portfolio) in this 'opportunity'.

Am I right in thinking that West Face hold 8m warrants at 14p exercise price? Is that it?

But what if they collapse the share price and then pickup the company for nearly nothing...

Listening to the call the other week, I felt reasonably happy with the mine plan. It's the finance that worries me, but they didn't want to talk about that. Looking at the history, they've destroyed all shareholders prior to the equity swap early in the year.