Member Info for CaneToad

Autonomy: "If we get a big rise on Monday opening it will only fall back again as people will take profits just like 2 weeks ago"

Geez man, you sound like Mr Meldrew!

Sooner or later, BTC is going to regain $43k, $45k, $50k and eventually regain it's ATH. ARB will eventually follow. We'll see some serious buying once Melanion's fund is live. It's gonna happen.

Wow, it's managing to 'keep it up' - Nice change in sentiment here too.

Wadz: "I'm averaging around £1 and am holding long term but curious to know what others exits (sell) price would be?"

I'll probably hang on for a while. I can see some institutions coming back in with those results. Stock Rank has jumped to 72 in Stockopedia, meaning that a whole new group of investors will come in. It was looking a bit sketchy before the results, but that's now all changed.

I have to admit, this is getting boring waiting for this damn thing to pop... good thing that MARA, RIOT and HUT have been moving this week or I'd be eating Cup a Soup tonight.

No good trader would be shorting this atm. MOre likely a newbie who is about to have his face ripped off...

@HopeGreedNothing: You'll need to be a lot scarier to convince me into selling my ARB shares... you have to admit, that was a bit lame.
Those little shorts are going to be in a lot of pain very soon. I suspect they're idiots...

Let's hope that CPI can keep a good part of the days rise... there will be a lot of day traders in here now, and they'll all be selling into the close.

Yes, I agree that they're one-off and that the revenue has risen.

In response to your question, I agree with you. But that is exactly why the banks have all seemingly made a small fortune this year... funny world we live in.

I'd be more worried if the shorts were of a decent size relative to the mkt cap. It's quite possibe that they're just stupid.
I've increased my long.

There are multiple paths upwards for us now.

1) Melanion Capital's BTC tracker will be imminently open to investors throughout Europe. They *will* be buying ARB.

2) The SEC received multiple (futures based) bitcoin ETF applications within 24 hours of Gary Gensler saying they'd look favourably on that type of fund. Clearly the investor demand is *huge* and that will drive BTC higher. We are highly correlated to BTC and we will rise with it.

OK, that has me perplexed.
All of the miners have been screaming up for days and ARB is likely (we hope) to rise 'soon'.
Why would anybody open a short?
Sounds like they're insane, unless they know something that we don't.

"The NASDAQ pre market has already jumped to 5.56 a share"

Only in America!

So basically, they're 'talking' about merging with another company and buying a bunch of machines when they previously had no mining business... One of these situations where it would have been good to be in yesterday...

I'm adding further to ARB, HUT AND RIOT.

Guys, you can't look at the change in the share price on a few days and conclude that ARB is not following BTC.

As I said yesterday, ARB has an excellent correlation with BTC over both the short (20d) and long-term (1y). Sure, it's possible that occasionally it doesn't rise as much as we want. Correlation to BTC is unstable for all of the miners. There have been several times over the past months, when the 20-day correlation against BTC fell to almost zero for several weeks at a time - for ARB, HUT 8 and RIOT. It seems to move in waves. FYI: the correlation with BTC is currently increasing for all of these miners.

It is fair to say that Riot and Hut 8 have moved up nicely over the past few days (happy days!), but I think ARB will follow some time over the next week.

The high correlation of ARB and BTC is *the reason* that ARB has one of the highest weights in Melanion Capital's BTC tracker. They're not adding ARB just for fun. The weighting is chosen to maximise the correlation of their basket against BTC.

Regarding my comment that the fundamentals have 'deteriorated slightly'. If you're a Stocko user, you'll see that the 'Quality' rating has dropped since the financial results, so I think my statement is accurate.

Guys, I agree that the 59% drop is due to a 'one-off' cost - but all businesses have 'one-off' costs. Stripping out unlucky items is not accounting, it's black magic. It's like saying that Rolls Royce would have had a fantastic few years if not for the issue with their Trent engines... the drop in operating profitability is real, for whatever reason caused it.

FYI: I am long here. I agree it's cheap.

Long story short - the problem I see here is a UK-thing, rather than an ARB thing...

In terms of RSI, ARB is the most attractive of the bunch at the moment (RSI=53). If any of the other miners is anything to go on, we're due for a rise. That said, RIOT and HUT are also looking attractive, though they've all had significant rises over the past few days.

K3VMC - "I have no view on how big the fund will be, but I believe ARB will start off at 9% fund weighting."

Thanks. That's useful. Wow, 9% is a big weighting.

Crikey - there's not much excitement here, is there... I thought the results were good.

Grayscale is currently worth ~$25.6b (654k coins).

Let's assume that the Melanion Capital fund ends up being 1/10 this size. I don't think that's too radical an assumption as it's (currently) the only UCITS-approved bitcoin tracker in Europe. That would equate to a fund of $2.56b.

Now let's assume that all 20 constituents of the Melanion Bitcoin Tracker fund have an equal 5% weight. That equates to $128m of ARB shares (£92m), which is about 20% of the ARB market cap.

Remember - this is just one (1) fund.

Food for thought!

Poptimist: I agree 100% with what you're saying about manipulation of BTC. Hopefully Gary Gensler will sort that out. Maybe it also goes on with ARB. I have no idea. I'm just saying that I didn't see anything unusual in its overall behaviour, given its volatility. I'll take a look at the things that you mentioned.