Member Info for CaneToad

France has approved the first EU-regulated bitcoin tracking fund, holding ARB, RIOT and HUT 8 in a basket of up to 30 shares.

https://cryptonewsbtc.org/2021/08/04/french-fund-manager-to-launch-first-eu-regulated-bitcoin-tracker/
https://californianewstimes.com/french-fund-manager-to-launch-first-eu-regulated-bitcoin-tracker/468738/

The fund manager claims that the basket is 90% correlated with BTC. Seeing ARB drop yesterday when RIOT and HUT both rose, I thought I'd check the correlations for myself.

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Long-Term correlation (1-year). Each of the miners is *very highly correlated* with BTC:

BTC-ARB: 94%
BTC-RIOT: 94%
BTC-HUT: 93%

Short-Term Correlation (20d rolling period). The correlation is almost always positive and has an average ~ 60%. It's been increasing for the past month. Of these three miners, ARB currently has the highest correlation with BTC, with the 20d correlation sitting at 90% and rising with the others.
========

Conclusion: ARB is not showing anything unusual. It is possible for ARB to drop even though BTC rises.

Even once the 'BTC-tracker' is launched, there will be days when the fund moves in the opposite direction to BTC. That is not unexpected...

"At 30 June 2021, the Group had liquidity of £7.5bn including cash and cash equivalents of £3.0bn and undrawn facilities of £4.5bn. None of the facilities are subject to any financial covenants or rating triggers which could accelerate repayment."

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/bitcoin-crypto-europe-etf-mike-novogratz-galaxy-digital-voyager-riot-2021-08

As one of the first BTC-tracking funds in Europe with full approval, this is very significant for ARB. The article annoyingly doesn't mention ARB, but the referenced FT article does.

I'd been holding off averaging-down until clear progress towards a turn-around. I think that's now happened. Very happy with the progress.

@Stnz: "I’m sure the early investors of Amazon felt the same, when it tanked from $90ish to $6ish too. Share price doesn’t reflect potential."

I agree. It just reflects our own fright. **We're** causing this rise/fall. It's nobody elses fault. It's not PW's fault...

As mentioned. I handle my own disappointment with ARB today by the rise of Hut 8 and Riot. Personally, I think it's better to have a few BTC miners. Hopefully there'll be a day when they all go the moon. Unfortunately, it's not today...

Good luck.

Yeah, it's annoying. I agree. ARB is hugely undervalued. Unfortunately the markets can be crazy at times.
I manage to take my mind off it, by also holding some Hut 8 and RIOT. Happy days on those today!

@Poptimist: "This SP is at the beck and call of day traders and their inside knowledge and collusion."
We all have our own strategies and time scales. We all buy shares in the company for one reason only. I tend to trade in the weeks-months time frame and sometimes for years. I have no problem with day traders providing liquidity if they want to try their hand.

Albert82: "I'll be more than happy when all the traders are out and we just have investors here....."
And then there'd be no liquidity...spread would be 10%

Poptimist: "Investor base very different - FFS, I don't think so."

How do you explain the difference in holding times of RIOT and ARB? Why are they so different? The rate of turnover of RIOT shares is an order of magnitude bigger than ARB. It's that simple.

@Poptimist: I agree that there's some manipulation on the UK markts. But it's also present in the US markets. It's just that there's more liquidity in the US, so it's not as obvious. US investors get excited about tech shares and they trade them ferociously. UK investors are more like Victor Meldrew...

The investor base with RIOT and ARB are VERY different. You just have to look at the average holding time (5 days vs 48 days). RIOT is traded ferociously, while ARB has longer-term investors. That's why RIOT moves faster. I don't see many traders on this channel.

"BTC up, RIOT>4%. ARB down 4%."

Don't worry about it. It's just volatility...

Took the opportunity to grab some more ARB.
Nice situation!

This morning (US time)
https://www.cnbc.com/video/2021/08/04/sec-chair-gary-gensler-on-his-vision-for-cryptocurrency-regulation.html

Personal Opinion: More regulation, but BTC will go mainstream. Big credibility boost in the eyes of both private- and institutional investors.

Great news.

https://ocw.mit.edu/courses/sloan-school-of-management/15-s12-blockchain-and-money-fall-2018/video-lectures/session-1-introduction/

Well worth watching. Keep in mind, he is the new head of the SEC.

Astounding.

It sounds as though he's against any ETFs that directly own BTC, but is open to the idea if they just own the futures.

(another link, same stort, for people without Bloomberg)

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/03/what-the-sec-chairs-comments-on-crypto-mean-for-a-possible-bitcoin-etf.html

There is already progress since this was mentioned this morning: "Gensler said that an ETF that complies with the SEC’s strict rules for mutual funds could provide investors with necessary protections. Speaking in his first major speech on cryptocurrencies, Gensler also signaled an openness to an ETF focused exclusively on Bitcoin futures"

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-08-03/sec-s-gensler-signals-pathway-for-a-bitcoin-etf-with-tough-rules
(3 August 2021, 17:15 BST)

This would be a great first step.

I thought the results weren't bad. Liquidnet is priced for free.
Yeah, it may drift lower. It's being gamed. You need to be careful with this stock and many others on LSE/AIM. The flurry of orders is not PI interest I am sure of that. It's single orders being split by professional platforms.