Member Info for CaneToad

@Muscles12: Hey, I'd never heard of Bitfarms. Crikey, that thing moves! Looks like another nice play. Hearing about plays like this is the benefit of these boards.

@Poptimist "Cane Toad, you come across to me as a superior type and declared staunch supporter of ARB with a whiff of diversional, quiet FUD hue."

Well thank you Poptimist!

Mostly, I'm just a greedy git like the rest of you... I research, I buy, I wait for a rise and I finally sell; then repeat. That's it. But I like to check some things, like correlation, especially when people make claims such as the other miners rising more quickly than ARB, or that the others follow BTC more closely, which just isn't based on facts. I noticed, not even one person commented on my correlation figures. My view is often wrong, as is everbody elses, but those correlation figures are not my view, they're fact. ARB is just as closely correlated with BTC as the other miners.

Of course, I also hold MARA, RIOT, HUT etc. Not biased towards ARB in the least.

I'm happy to change my view if you show me some solid buy/sell figures demonstating manipulation; *not* the approximate ones on LSE. i.e. unreported shorts, spoof orders on L2, etc.

If it's being kept down, why do the numbers show that ARB has an even higher correlation against BTC that HUT or RIOT?

I'm not saying that it's *not* being manipulated, but it's just that the data does not show it, either on the short- or long time scale. Hey, maybe I'm wrong...

Looks like Ether is dragging up BTC!

Not long and you will now see one of the European fund managers buy into ARB; over and above the BTC tracking fund, that is. Patience required though.

@Fish: Maybe the data I have is inaccurate (Stockopedia/Refinitiv), but I see the major investors 'only' holding 65%

I'm a holder here, but to be fair, the fundamentals have deteriorated a little bit over the past few months. It's still solid, but people were looking for a divi and only having a single broker makes it tricky to get a reliable forecast. While Revenue has lisghtly increased, operating profit is substantially (59%) down.

"Flying now...200% upside"

Blimey. Most of us here are long CPI and I'd love to see a sustained rise, but keep please try and keep your trousers on...

Maybe a fund is buying, now that Barclays have resumed coverage.

Sharebell: "many times been able to sell for more than I could buy"

Heck, I'd be buying/selling all day long if I ever found that. Might just be your platform showing dodgy bid/ask, but these might disappear when you do a dummy trade?

@Loc123: Yeah, that has me excited. That fund should attract a lot of interest and it's going to directly lead to new, large buys into ARB. Nice!

drlong: "Arb is holding up pretty well compared to btc"

Geez - so you're finally long?

Personally, I don't draw too many conclusions from these micro moves. Each up/down is nothing more than a coin toss. Correlation with BTC is v. high, but that does not mean they move together.

I tend to only average-down/double after seeing a solid turn-around, but am keeping a careful eye on it. Who knows, maybe Boris will cajole some more fund managers to invest in UK companies.

Looking at the major investors (in Stockopedia), it looks quite stable. Only one (Schroder) out of eight have reduced in 2021.

TyrionL: "Only the Nasdaq will ever fix this issue, they love tech stocks and have a stronger appetite. It just the wrong market we are in."

I've also thought that. But I'm cautiously optimistic, because the Hut 8 listing didn't do so well on NASDAQ. Some called it a flop. In my experience, US investors like their own companies the most.

You cannot guarantee that a share price will rise, even after great results. It's not just ARB that behaves in this way. Glencore (one of the worlds biggets MINERS) reported record profitability today, but the share price dropped...

Some people here will exit when they see BTC or ARB pullback - that is fine. As sad as that is, we need those people's losses to pay for our profits as it's a zero-sum game. It's the normal cycle of the stock market and explains why most short-term traders lose their money.

@Tyrion: Do you care to comment on the correlation numbers that I published? It shows the ARB has an excellent long-term correlation with BTC of 94%. In the short-term (20-days rolling) it also has the highest correlation with BTC compared with RIOT and HUT and it currently sits at about 90%, while RIOT and HUT sit at 83% and 73% respectively.

I am not biased towards ARB as I also actively trade HUT and RIOT. I'm just telling you the facts...

NASDAQ opinion, we'll see a deluge of day-traders providing more liquidity (good), but the main volume will be with BTC-tracking funds in Europe and in the existing PI's in the UK/Europe. Just my personal opinion/maybe tosh.

@Tyrion: I've tended to think that as well, but if you look at the % rise in BTC, ARB, RIOT and HUT 8 over the past year, the facts tell something different:

Prices from 5 Aug 2020 to 5 Aug 2021:

Date BTC ARB RIOT HUT-8
2020-08-05 11,747.02 6.00 4.01 1.31
2021-08-05 38,810.39 126.60 32.71 6.56

i.e. ARB has risen more than BTC, RIOT or HUT.

Monkfish: "This price action is really starting to **** me off now. I can’t work it out at all, SP sliding down again after a recovery to mid 130s. It’s becoming abundantly clear that the markets have markedly downgraded Argo in recent months"

I'm just as pis*ed off as everybody else, but volatility and correlation can play strange tricks. I don't see any evidence in the DATA that anything funny is going on. I'm a trader and have traded ARB many times. If I genuinely thought something bad was going on, I'd dump it. From what I see, there is nothing odd going on. We need to be patient... It will eventually move with BTC, but it's NOT guaranteed to happen immediately or every day.