Member Info for CaneToad

@mickymix: "It's not the PIs who are determining the price, it's the PIs who are selling their silver at a knock down price to the IIs and MMs only to see it rocket when the time comes and then realise they have missed the boat and been had over."

The vast majority of funds (e.g. >80%) make a lower return than the index. i.e. most II's are not as smart as you think. They often react in the same way as PI's, except that they have bigger holdings, which tend move the market.

Personally, I gave up on institutional funds years ago.

"These pumps always retrace"

That is very true ... 99.99% of them retrace.

Long-term, I see an incredible opportunity here, given the amazing assets they hold, but I doubt many PI's will hang on that long. I do expect an impressive rise if they can announce funding for Dundas.

"When massive price swings come, they don’t affect me whatsoever. In poker, if you’re good, you’re still losing 45% of the time. I’m very comfortable with losing."

I like that.

"Currently, the most bullish analyst values Argo Blockchain at UK£2.50 per share, while the most bearish prices it at UK£2.40. Even so, with a relatively close grouping of estimates, it looks like the analysts are quite confident in their valuations, suggesting Argo Blockchain is an easy business to forecast or the underlying assumptions are obvious."

https://simplywall.st/stocks/gb/software/lse-arb/argo-blockchain-shares/news/brokers-are-upgrading-their-views-on-argo-blockchain-plc-lon

I'll be adding more if the opportunity arises.

@HereKittyKitty: "Summary - U.K. stock markets suck & US rule!"

OK, I admit - you're right!

Almost two thirds of all UK shares are owned by international (non-UK) investors, with the US holding the most. i.e. there is no purely UK market. There's just the US market and the partly US markets.

The FTSE has gone nowhere in 5y, while the US markets have skyrocketed. I don't think it's an ARB thing though. It's a UK investor thing... You can tell that by looking at the sentiment here. It's similar for a lot of other LSE boards - most UK PI's get disheartened easily and out at a loss and then blame everybody else...

I'm holding. I expect these to come good. God only knows when though, so I'm moving my attention to BTC, ETH and other miners until that time.

Thanks for the info. Stockopedia had today (16 aug), though it's clearly wrong...

Yeah, NFTs are just getting started, but I'm talking about high-end/popular collectibles within an NFT. That's a really interesting and (potentially) massively profitable activity. Forget stock market returns. My teenage son started with £1 and traded his way up to over £10k within a couple of years. I got super excited telling him about a 50% stock return, but it failed to even interest him and he couldn't understand why I bothered.

Risk Warning. I suspect that most NFTs will have the payoff of a binary option...

@Chopsing: "Canetoad , without new investors arb share price will not move to the upside . Nothing smelly here but reduced sentiment."

New investors will come, like pigs to a trough.

If the French Bitcoin tracker is just 5% of the size of Grayscale, it will account for 10% of ARB. My expectation is that it's going to be bigger than that. It's going to happen. No question of *if*. It's just a matter of *when* the fund opens to retail investors. It's literally 'any day now'. The surge in BTC is going to make that fund even more attractive. That's good enough for me.

In the meantime, I've had a bumper week trading the other miners and smallcaps and I have a tonne of patience, having waited 6m for Capita to turn. As is the usual situation, most traders lost patience, lost money and moved on, ultimately losing out... I expect the same to happen with ARB.

It's frikkin annoying that it's not moving, but such is life. I will hold.

Something very smelly going on here, that is for sure. The BTC correlation has completely broken down.

Geez Pop, I thought you had a whale-sized position. What's the pessimism? Out of all the miners, ARB is my biggest position by far and it's starting to annoy me, but I'm hang'in in there. No plans on selling it while BTC is high. It's got to move at SOME stage.

ARB is going to move at some stage, but yeah, I had to start moving money into RIOT, MARA and HUT to pickup the BTC moves.

Caveman: "9pm like clockwork!"

Frikkin amazing. I need to start trading BTC over the weekends!

Oh baby!

It's great to finally see it moving after sitting like a dead weight for a very long time.

Update is meant to be Monday.
It's still one of the most shorted UK shares in the UK; I cannot understand why they'd hang around beyond the DPO completion.

In terms of chart/technicals, there is no comparison. Most miners are heavily overbought, perhaps only with RIOT having any juice left. Most are too hot to touch for a new trade - it's not a coincidence that they've now slowed down, unles BTC explodes that is... ARB is great opportunity with RSI @51 and lots of interesting stuff happening to cause volatility in the future. In terms of fundamentals, ARB just reported great results and there's been no reaction to that yet.

There is NO guarantee that ARB will move sideways now. The market will always surprise.

If I was out of the market (I'm not), I'd start scaling in to ARB now with some dry powder left for inevitable eventualities, but you always need that anyway.

Just my opinion. I might be totally wrong.

Also, go buy yourself a copy of The Art of Execution by Lee Freeman-Shor. It's focussed on what comes AFTER the buy. That's the bit that most get wrong and which causes the losses even if you've chosen the right stock/asset.

Be patient.

If you don't have patience, then invest in some other stocks as well. That's what I do. That way, there's slways something cook'in

(Disclaimer: all crypto are HIGH RISK. Do your own research. Diversify. I'm biased and am long most of crypto miners, including ARB)

@Chaebol: "Unless bitty keeps climbing or we get a mother load rns this is where we will be for the foreseeable."

Don't agree. We could have a big player step in ant any moment. It's a great time. Melanian Capital will just buy irrespective once they open to investors - any day now. It could have a HUGE to ARB.

"I have a bunch of these at 36p and have traded it before and it does seem that as soon as 50p is in the windscreen a magical auto-braking system kicks in. "

I think 'this time is different', because of the progress on the turnaround plan; it's been significantly de-risked now and is an absolute bargain.