Member Info for CaneToad

I guess it could be up to 100% upside after today's episode. But it all depends on what level of interest there is in the Minto listing and what discount to NAV the market will apply to owning the Minto shares within Pembridge.

It all looked like stating the bleeding obvious to me, but you never know how the market is going to react to these announcements. I just skimmed it and felt my eyes becoming heavy.

@Blue_Square: I would not trust the person giving this tip... Responding to the points:

1) Agree
2) They've been going over ten years, but have never made a profit.
3) Agree
4) They are more likely to be closer to the start of the turnaround than the end. They will not be a low-cost producer until the get an on-site mill, which is years away. What has been achieved so far. It's mostly just disaster recover after the collapse and flooding.
5) Agree
6) Hopefully
7) The share is priced for a company in financial distress, which is what this is

@roger65: "Huge potential here and with just one tweet or hint it could absolutely fly"

It's like a firecracker ready to go off. One day soon, it's gonna blow!

Geez, it's going to take me a while to get through this one. Very BAB. Where do they get these names from...

It's been an incredible trading share in the past, though dead for some months. Nice today!

Momentum definitely starting to improve here.

That's great news. It's impressive that they were able to offload the rest so quickly. Has me thinking whether or not to add more.

@dvharrison: That occasionally happens in investing... If you take a read of Lee Frreman-Shores excellent book 'the Art of Execution' you'll discover that roughly half of all the investment decisions of fund managers are wrong. It's your risk management and what you do after that fact that matters the most.

Wooooody: "''In the event that they get bought out, I see the assets providing a buffer to the current share price. From what I see, Little Deer alone more than support the share price''."

My assessment was possibly wrong. That occasionally happens in investing.

I see that Novacyt (a maker of covid tests) is rising steeply again. Perhaps covid test kits and bitcoin are the new gold...Still sitting on paper losses on CEY, but at least happy to get a chunky dividend. Trying to convince myself that gold is going to make a move some day.

https://www.mining.com/goldman-recapitulates-5-a-pound-copper-price-by-end-2021/

I can only imagine how profitable Atalaya will become if their forecast comes true. The P/E would start to look silly ...

So they literally have spent all of the money raised from the convertible 1w ago!!! and would be insolvent if they did not do a capital raise to last until the end of August - 1w away!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I am getting close to not believing a single word that this company says. I suspect they are lying - simple as that. They are burning cash and have no idea how much.

@MrExec: It is complete incompetence of the CFO to have to do a capital raise 1 week after drawing down on the convertible notes. This company has done a ridiculous number of capital raises.

OMG. I just saw the RNS. WTF is going on with this company?

I am not trying to de-ramp here. I am genuinely concerned that the NewGen funding has fallen through. There is no logic to a placing at this time. It is crazy. They are not being honest with the real financial state or else they wouold not be scrambling to do a tiny raise like this.

@Monkey: "777 if the bankers want to make money then waiting will net them more than selling it down right now. Thats seems obvious to me."

Bankers don't gamble on shares. They'll take what they can get today. West Face deals in distressed debt. I doubt they'll want a position themselves - or else why would they be selling? If it rises momentarily, they'll use that as a reason to offload even faster.

If the IPO goes well and they achieve $200M CAD valuation, that would give a NAV of £13m for Pembridges's 11% holding. It's not clear what discount the market is going to apply to those shares being held by Pembridge though, nor is it clear how the market is going to value the IPO. e.g. the market has limited interest in Rambler Metals & Mining which is the closest comparison to Minto. Although Minto is very clearly, significantly more viable than Rambler.

My guess is that Gati knows something that we don't or else he wouldn't have the balls to invest so much of his own money.

My gut says that there could be ~50% upside at the moment, unless the Minto listing goes ballistic. Maybe I'll take a small punt.

I believe in the long-term story here (later this year /early next year), as long as the NewGen funding comes off and the copper price holds up.

Averaging-down right now would require doubling or tripling the position size. That risks turning a 50+% loss on a small position into a 50+% loss on a large position. It's lunacy. I'd consider adding once there is a genuine business turn-around, rather than a minor change in sentiment from mug-punters...

@Monkey: "You probably want to get in just before or just after the Newgen finance is declared."

I'm already 'in here' sadly... I am in no hurry to add more as the chart is consistently bad going back even 10 years. I have a modest holding and would only look to add once the share price was much more attractive than the current level. The risk is too high otherwise, as their is no history of profitability going back a decade and the mine itself produces a tiny amount of copper.