Member Info for CaneToad

Know0: "DYOR but I called out derampers, this is likely ramping for your personal gain"

We're all here for personal gain. That's the purpose of buying shares. Capita was at 175p in early 2020 and 750p back in 2015, so saying that it's going to get back to half of the pre-covid level is not overly ambitious.

The turn-around plan is going well, while the fundamentals of the company have improved meterially, e.g. it now has a StockRank of 75 in Stockopedia, while it was just 35 back in July. On that basis, I see 100p as a reasonable target.

One question. Is your 200k investment for charitable reasons? e.g. are you donating the proceeds to a homeless shelter?

Obviously, I should have said the 'market cap' was being held under $700m. Having the share price close to $700m would be a nice problme to have.... Berkshire Hathaway - watch out!

Personally, I don't understand why the share price would have to be held under $700m.

Maybe I'm stupid. But why would anybody buy into a company when it's being held down artificially? It doesn't make any sense to me. It's becoming bloody annoying - that is for sure.

"I'm invested as I am hoping/expecting a doubling of the sp within 2 years."

That's what I'd hoped to see, but it's fair to say that this share is quirky and it only attracts a select group of investors. It's been a bit stagnant for a while, though I like to think that it's started a gradual rise.

It's a nice rise since early August, that's for sure. Fundamentals seem to have dramatically improved from the last time I held it.

"I think the current SP looks good for an entry imo."

Yeah, I agree with that. It's hard to believe that we're now lower than at the depths of the 2008 crisis. The drop looks unjustified. Look at the amount of cash on the balance sheet and no significant recovery like Barclays or Natwest.

It's an incredible retracement though, I have to agree.

Happy that I had sold my positions in GOG, SGC, NEX, FGP months ago...but now back in with modest positions in just GOG and SGC. It's incredible that we're back to the January price here, when the company is now in such a solid position. Oh well, looks like a top-up is in order soon.

Here's what I see for Next:

"Credit Suisse says, expecting apparel and footwear sales in Europe to continue to lag retail recovery in H2. The brokerage cites little needs-based apparel demand and little sign of pent-up demand as reasons why it expects sales to continue to lag other non-food categories"

That said, the Next share price has done very nicely lately, so I'm unsure how Ted's going to perform in the update next week. Hopefully, their online business has been doing strongly.

n1shares: "I would expect it over the next fortnight to go up by at least a £1"

Wow, that's quite a rise? What's that based on - technicals/fundamentals? Any feeling for the upcoming trade update?

@EeyeWaysls: "Chris5 is also on the Stagecoach board talking up that share."

Wherever there's a dropping share - Chri55 is not too far away! It's a handy thing to lookout for. Basically, he's looking to get back in...

I would not invest here if they just had Gakara - it's too risky, with the government able to walk in an take the mine as has happened in some other African countries.

The SA asset is incredible though. I wish they'd get a move on with that.

"The Group announces that its full year results for the year ended 3 July 2021
will now be published on 30 September 2021 (previously 9 September 2021). This
revised date reflects ongoing discussions with the Department for Transport
regarding the historic calculation of the Southeastern profit share over a
number of years, as disclosed as a contingent liability in the Group's
accounts for the year ended 27 June 2020, and related additional matters.
Consequently, the Group and Deloitte, the Group's auditor, need additional
time to finalise their procedures.

The Group's trading results for the year ended 3 July 2021 remain in line with
the Board's previous expectations."

"In situ; often not italicized in English) is a Latin phrase that translates literally to "on site"
It can mean "locally", "on site", "on the premises.

Not wanting to be critical, but the mill at RMM is NOT in-situ. That is a very misleading statement, which is important, because it is one the primary reasons that Rambler have never been profitable.

"Petra will start moving up nicely and then the US market will crash and drag everything down into their cesspit."

Yeah, that has had me worried for some time. I'm toying with the idea of buying some puts on Nasdaq. I don't see too much downside here though as it's still at very a depressed level. I guess that PDL could fall 20%, but I see a halving as pretty unlikely from this level, unlike a lot of growth stocks.

It does look like it's potentially moving up finally; at least since around 10-12 Aug, when some of the goild miners started to move. Not seeing any uplift in Barrick or Newmont yet though, so staying a little bit cautious. Struggling to understand why pm's aren't having their day.

Oh yeah, this one is becoming a nice little earner again...Good volume. Looks like a fund is buyign again. Enjoy the ride up to 100p guys! LTH looking to make good money here.

Not at all worried about the drop here.

Seeing Dr Doom (@Chri55) here makes me even more confident that this is a nice opportunity.

Balance sheet is strong. Business remains cash generative. Sentiment is undoubtedly weak at the moment, but as a Value Investor, we're surely used to this...

I never thought I'd see this opportunity repeat!

This has completely changed character over the past month. From the dog of my portfolio to a nice little earner! Fundamentals are starting to look attractive in Stocko which is going to bring in more funds and PI's. 100p looks like a conservative short-term forcast here.

How can this be the 7'th most shorted UK share, just behind Wood and Petrofac?

Technicals look good to me since early August. I'm expecting some uplift on the DPO completion and the price looks comparitively cheap. I've added again.

@Poptimist: I agree with most of what you said. Thanks for your reply.

I'm a believer in ARB and I've mentioned a few times that's it's my largest crypto holding.

I agree with @the_Chuz on this subject.

The problem is that it's impossible to repeatedly achieve a multi-bagger, e.g. by buying ARB at 4p and holding until now... On the other hand, it is possible to become a consistently profitable investor/trader by being disciplined, managing risk, following a strategy, doing research and having some luck. For every lucky person that bought ARB at 4p there are more than 10 that have lost money on other AIM/small-cap stocks.

The saying 'you never go broke taking a profit' is an example of a flawed strategy... People who take an early profit also tend to hold onto losing positions too long. In a world where the chance of winning/losing is 50/50, this is the risk/reward profile where wins are small but losses are large. So on average, you go broke taking an early profit... By having an edge, maybe you can move the probability in your favour, but even Warren Buffett has occasionally got it wrong, so it's foolish to have everything in one stock. For that reason, I spread money into other crypto miners and into other sectors. So, while I made only a tiny amount on ARB this week, temporarily reducing my exposure, I made a killing on MARA, RIOT and HUT 8.

A new investor might be lucky by having everything in one stock. But on average, it rarely works. In my opinon, you're better off going to Ladbrokes or Vegas than following such a strategy - at least you'll have a good time! There are definitely some successful traders/investors that only hold a few stocks, but they're not the people asking this sought of question on a board.

Good luck and have a great weekend!