Member Info for CaneToad

"they done you favour surely": Let's see. It's only a good price if it rises later. In the short-term, the prices tend to move in the opposite direction to what I think.... The only successful method I've ever found to avoid the stress and irrationality of ARB price movements is to switch off the computer and go for a ride for a few hours.

@Hippo: "Even though I lost the GDP of a small african country today, I feel so much better now that Im out"

I had a nightmare situation like that a couple of weeks ago. It's a huge relief to be out of a shi* situation.

I'm possibly a swing trader. But more likely, I'm just an impatient investor. I tend to cash-in once the equivalent annualized return reaches my target. I'm not against intra-day trading and occasionally I do it, but that's more by chance rather than skill. I can't get my head around how I could ever be profitable by using lots of leverage or trading intra-day, so I stick to the weeks/months timeframe.

The last time I used leverage was early last year. I made ridiculous money on the first 'big drop' (short S&P, short FTSE, long VIX), but outstayed my welcome. I've not been short or leveraged since...maybe a similar situation is just down the track though.

I get the impression that most traders would laugh at my statistics, because they rightly maximise their profit, while I've historically tended to minimize my losses, which holds back my annual returns (~40% annually). I'm continually trying to work out how Ross Cameron is so damn successful. If only.

Good luck.

Pops: "Just remarkable an individual."

I would very rarely invest in any company for the CEO. But from very early on, I decided that PW is one of the best CEO's that I have ever experienced. It's very unusual. Whether or not that makes a difference, let's see, I think it will, but irrespective, he is definitely an incredible communicator and I respect the guy. I've always had the impression that he is a genuine individual.

How much Ether do you mine monthly?

Just interested. It's none of my business. Happy to be told to bugger off and I probably deserve to be told that, but I'd love to know if you're prepared to elaborate. i.e. it would be interesting... I have a few other ventures myself (NFT's etc).

Happy to have just added another tiny bite of £5k.
This WILL pop.
It's going to have been a great investment/trade.
In the meantime, I am as annoyed as hell that a bunch of total bastards are keeping it down, but they will fade.

@Allen: In summary, I don't think long-term holders will abandon RIOT. A 'shelf-registration' is like a pile of shares they 'put on a shelf' to sell on a rainy day. As long as that money is used to buy more machines and to therefore improve revenue, I can't see why that would be a bad thing. Maybe I'm stupid. Maybe I'm wrong.

In time, I believe that the ARB fundamentals and low price will become apparent to investors - only time will tell. But I don't believe that any significant number of RIOT shareholders would come over to ARB. For reasons that I don't understand, we've attracted the attention of a bunch of manipulators, but it can't last forever.

(Please note that I am TOTALLY biased. I'm long both RIOT and ARB)

Just look at HUT 8. Up 10% on the day, up 17% at its peak yesterday. Now close to the ATH. I cannot see why the same can't happen for ARB, if only we can rid ourselves of these damn manipulators.

@Chaebol: "55k 60k 65k are all previous price hits why did we not sell at those prices but now it’s prudent to sell at 48,5k when a bull run looks very close?"

They've only sold a small chunk. I think it's good to occasionally sell a few, if only to prove that they have them to sell. i.e. that they're not just making The Emperors New Clothes... That's just my view.

Chaebol: "Could hav sold bitty instead of dilution which killed sentiment and volume in America."

Have a look below what I said about RIOT / dilution. They are currently blue. That tells me that investors don't care.

Chaebol: "Asset management Strategy lol sellin below 65 k seems like a poor asset mngmt strategy to me."

I can't think of a single commodity producer (e.g. copper/gold 'miner') that has ever been successful by stockpiling all their product indefinitely for future sale. Can you?

FYI: I say that it's 'very exciting times' but I am still BLOODY annoyed and confused about the ARB price action. Something smells rotten with that. Just look at how the spread varies on ARB at the moment. It's completely contrived.

speel: "Just hope all Riot share holders buy Arb instead."

The average holding time for RIOT shareholders is 5d. That means that most aren't holding it for any other purpose than speculation, as a proxy to BTC. I think the company has been quite cunning to have done this 'perpetual/delayed raise' now, when BTC is rising, as the dilution effects could be completely negated within a week or so, even if they were to issue all of the new shares at once, which they won't.

Bottom line - I doubt many RIOT investors will care about the shelf registration - I don't. I bought more. Just imagine how many more machines they can buy with that money! I have the same attitude to ARB. Very exciting times.

(Maybe I'm TOTALLY wrong. I'm definitely TOTALLY biased)

@Hippo: "Around 3600 was a major support, it has broken that."

I agree, the technicals don't look great at the moment, but to be honest, the lower this goes, the safer I see it being to add more. Maybe that's the insanity of a Contrarian/Value Investor. e.g. as this drops, the Value ranking (Stockopedia) is rising rapidly and now sits at 65. At some point, that's going to start to attract Value Investors.

@Hippo: "Averaging down is not a serious way to trade"

When leverage is involved, I agree with you 100%.

For unleveraged positions, averaging-down can be successful when combined with careful stock selection and position sizing. Lee Freeman-Shor's book looks at it through a series of interviews with fund managers. I'd been a long-term investor before trading so it was more natural to me.

I don't mean to boast, but I do want to say that it is a viable option. I switched from long-term investment at the beginning of last year and have closed 898 trades, with 880 being profitable. I think ASOS will be a profitable trade, but clearly I have no idea when that will be.

Good luck.

Hippo: "You should get in and out the same way generally depending if you are swing or scalping."

The way I see it, there are two winning strategies (validated in 'The Art of Execution', Lee Freeman-Shor)

(1) Exit once loss exceeds pre-decided level, usually by stop-loss
(2) Hold/Wait/aggressively average-down 'somewhere near' the bottom

Both have pros/cons. Both can be successful and are widely practised.

Hippo uses (1). I use (2).

I'm holding, but will not add until there's evidence we've formed a bottom.

Good luck.

Here's a meaningless comparison to HUT 8, who are also Canadian and gave their monthly update yesterday:

Company/August/Total HODL/Mkt Cap (GBP)/Stock Rank/Value/Quality/Momentum
HUT/326/4,450/928/67/39/59/86
ARB/206/1,659/520/26/15/31/60

The 'August' figure is how many coins they mined. The Stock Rank, Value, Quality and Momentum figures are from Stockopedia (0 = worst, 100=best).

The market liked the Hut 8 update. At peak, share price up ~17%, closed ~9% up.

Interesting to watch RIOT drop immediately with BTC over the past hour or so. It's amazingly highly correlated with BTC.

@Pops: "It really is a puerile piece of bottom feeding filth, exploiting private investors..."

Hut 8 is now close to its ATH, rising another 11.5% today after 'upbeat' production numbers, while ARB has barely moved. Maybe it's ARB's turn tomorrow? That's what I keep telling myself.

It's sobering to compare the share price performance against the corresponding growth in profit over the past few years.

I'm tempted to add a significant amount, but the 2020 low @1150 has me cautious.

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/16024090/husband-bets-life-savings-bitcoin-loses-everything/