Member Info for CaneToad

To be fair, as I've said before, the price is near the low, but the company itself is in the best state that it's been.

Good news for Mano. Will hopefully lead to some new investors here.

Maybe somebody has released the Kraken?

@Know: "Come on CPI - green to finish? Still think a middle man is accumulating for someone"

Yeah, that looks likely to me. Keeping an eye out for an RNS.

@triumph: The US owns more UK shares than UK investors. They're the biggest invewstor in UK stocks. I agree with what you're saying about UK stocks in general though. The FTSE 100 performance has been terrible for 10+ years.

Treacle. I agree with you. Clearly the market dislikes this share at the moment. There's no letup in the selling. I'll add at some point, but I'm not keen to top-up when it's in freefall.

@Treacle: I tend to ignore individual brokers.

ASOS has 24 brokers in the official LSEG/Refinitiv data. The ratings are:

Sell: 1
Hold: 8
Buy: 10
Strong Buy: 5

Consensus Target Price: £58.95 (76% above the spot price).

In my opinion, those are very good ratings and an amazing target price. It's rare to see such a high quality company with so much upside.

Let's hope the US market doesn't implode.

@Jstar. I know TCap well. I've dealt with them. I worked in the derivatives industry for 20+ years...

Big institutions have been very slow to adopt crypto, but they're now coming around to it, because their clients demand it and they're losing business. That's why JP Morgan and Goldman have had to do an about-face. The crypto demand from the hedge funds is already frantic, especially in Asia and it's not an exaggeration to say that it's the biggest development in derivatives in a very long time. You only have to look at the trading volumes on Binance, Deribit, etc. The derivatives volumes have exploded.

The TP ICap platform will be FCA-approved which is a *huge* plus. That's sure to attract institutional interest.

Apart from all this, you have Liquidnet and a share price close to the decade low, trading on a 6.5 P/E.

I'm happy to have added significantly today for a 6-12m investment.

It's definitely oversold, with RSI at 18 and a consensus target price 76% above the spot price. My main concern here is the sentiment in the wider market, which looks terrible and deteriorating daily. If the US market was to sell-off, I can't see the current price holding, considering that the 2020 low was barely above £10.

With RSI @ 18 and fundamentals strong, I'd like to think this has now reached the bottom. It's a long way off the Feb 2020 lows though and with market sentiment being this weak, I'm cautious to add significantly at this stage, however good the company.

(Correction. It's a £52b valuation for Coinbase. Not $52b like I said)

The cryprto business alone could lift the fortunes of this company. I suspect that most institutional investors and analysts don't even have that factored into the valuation, because they have no idea how big it's become. You just have to look at the $52b valuation of Coinbase to see the how big a story this is. That business will launch in Q4.

Furthermore, there is the purchase yesterday from Mark Hemsley.

Borrowing against BTC Collateral is what ARB itself have done. It looks safe as long as the lender takes a generous haircut on the collateral, e.g. lend $1 against $2 of BTC. If the value of the collateral falls by some threshold (e.g. 5%), the client is asked to top-up the collateral or risk liquidation. It's similar to lending against artwork or a boat and is a big industry.

@Don: "@CaneToad - What platform do you use to buy options?"
Interactive Brokers

"Saxo Bank" is also good.

I would not touch the US market at the moment. Insane valuations by any metric.

Am tempted to buy some put options on Tesla or Nasdaq though. Just opened a new (small) tranche of Asos. Going to wait and see where it's heading before adding significantly though.

@The LukcyPin: "though share price was resilient before yesterday."

You looking at the same stock? It's hardly resilient - it's been dropping since March......

If I was a new investor, I'd definitely take a punt at this level though. It's just that I already have several tranches spread across multiple accounts, so am being a bit selective when I add.

I suspect that the funds had stepped away while RSI cooled off. Now they're back for the next tranche.

In terms of fundamentals, it's improving by the day and is now shown as a 'Turnaround' in Stocko, with 'Value' and 'Momentum' already looking good, while 'Quality' is rising. The overall 'StockRank' is 76 and rising, which is likely to bring in some of the more conservative Value investors.

Looking good to me.

Have we reached the bottom?

It's starting to look attractive from a technical standpoint, with RSI @ 24. The problem that I see is that RSI tends to undershoot for this stock, so it could go lower than this purely on a TA standpoint; maybe into the 160-170p range.

And there's the possibility of a cum-ex development before the end of the year.

I'm undecided on this one, but will review at 170p as I'd need to add a significant chunk to get my average down.

This is a profitable business.
It's at a distressed price now which does not make any sense, even if you price LiquidNet at zero.
It makes no sense to me.
I'll hold off for a while to let the dust settle, but will be adding significantly at some point.

I suspect that a lot of today's drop was caused by nefarious individuals shorting the stock on a day of weakness. This is how they conceal their actions. It's much easier to hide on days like this. If you look in the declared shorts, you'll see a 12% short that supposedly never happened. It was said to be a 'booking error' - except that nobody has ever removed it from various trading sites (including LSE), nor has the FCA ever investigated it properly. I contacted them about it and they were about as useful as a chocolate teapot.