Member Info for CaneToad

I suspect that a lot of the rise was speculation rather than real demand. Anyway, the market has made up it's mad mind and I'll swoop if it drops much more.

Ridiculously cheap. Stockopedia has the 12m rolling P/E at 3.7

CAML popped 7% today on record results, which will be being replicated at ATYM and their P/E is 7.1 on the same forward 12 basis. I also hold CAML and it's great to hear that their debt is almost gone, but ATYM is *already* debt-free.

I can see this flying if they declare a divi.

Interesting to see that HUT 8 has announced a $150m offering.

HUT 8 is back at its ATH, but both ARB and HUT 8 are Canadian FFS!

Technicals are looking attractive for ARB, with a recent rise and RSI=60, while HUT 8 is sitting at the ATH and RSI=71. Now that the news is out in the open re: the IPO, it wouldn't surprise me to see a surge *any day now* - as long as BTC also rises. On the other hand, there's a chance that our resident shorters will keep playing whack-a-mole.

I am definitely not here for years. It will not take that long.

The progress so far has been incredible, with debt-reduction by 2/3. All it will take is another big stone and the situation could look very, very different here within a 3-6 month time frame. The main thing at the moment is that most sites still have out of date fundamentals for this stock, so PI's are staying away. Once those pages gradually get updated, this is already going to improve based on what's already been achieved. It's likely to see a broker upgrade based on what's already been achieved.

I'm not interested in dividends. That is years away and it's hard to see anybody investing in a stock like this for even a 5% dividend. Most of us here are looking for 50+% at an *absolute* minimum.

This is just my view. Do your own research. I'm totally biased as I own PDL shares.

John: One more thing that I forgot to mention.

Diversification.

ARB and BTC have proven to be quite resilient lately while the wider market has been correcting downwards. In my view, any large/sharp correction in the US markets will likely see BTC/ARB follow, but for now, it's great to have the crypto in my portfolio as it's been an amazingly productive asset compared to most stocks. If not for the crypto, my portfolio perfomance would have sucked lately.

There are braver people than me here that have only 1 stock. I have about 10% exposure to crypto and I might even raise that to 15% soon.

I'm also heavily underwater here, but I only have a modest holding as I saw this as a risky play on the PGM prices. If it rises, it's happy days, but more likely now, I see it falling and I'll add a substantial amount at some point in the future. The thing I like about THS is the Chrome business in contrast to some of the pure PGM miners. I don't think many appreciate that difference.

Trelawny: "There are many fund managers out there unable to park this stock into say pension fund portfolios, etc,"

Exactly. ARB is currently only sold on the 'Pink Sheets' in the US. Pink Sheet stocks have a terrible reputation in the US, e.g. from the Wolf of Wall Street. That's going to change soon. In my opinion, the ARB shares will not be quite as popular as a native listing on NASDAQ, but I suspect this is just the first step towards that endpoint.

Any thoughts where this might land? Even tiny volumes are hammering the price.
Becoming tempted to add to my holding.
I'm very interested to se their cash figure though as I've not seen many sales annoucements lately.

ActionThisDay: "The short term IPO roller coaster ride may be up and down, but long term a rising BTC tide will raise all miners boats."

100% agree.

This is going to become even more important once funds like the Melanion Capital fund launch. They will buy ARB and other BTC miners in a mechanical fashion, i.e. the fundemantals are not that important... If BTC rises, so will interest in their fund and hence the purchases of ARB will also rise. If for any reason the BTC-ARB correlation dropped to zero, so would the purchases of ARB by that fund...........

Totally agree. I've tucked some away in my partners SIPP account. It's an incredible bargain at this level. It might drop further from here, but it's unimportant if you buy these for the longer-term.

It's not often that you get a high quality share where the target price is 90% above the current price, when there are 24 brokers involved. It's a great buy even if you chop the upside in half.

@John: "This is a serious post - I have better things to.... BTC is at $60k within the next few months... they have to raise capital every 6-9 months"

It's simple. To buy ARB, you need to believe in BTC rising or at least staying at an elevated level. A lot of investors (me included) buy ARB as a geared investement on BTC. Nothing more or less. It's because the ARB share price is roughly speaking, like a call option on the BTC price. The same can be said for any miner, e.g. a gold or copper miner (I have lots of those, but they're *very* boring at the moment). If BTC were to drop significantly, the ARB share price and maybe ARB itself would be wiped out. Note that exactly the same is true for a gold- or copper miner. This is why so many 'real' miners go bust.

In the long-term, I believe that BTC will rise, at least until a large percentage of people are invested in it, after which I see it losing some of its volatility. I believe it's going to take years for that to happen and I think we're quite close to the *start* of the cycle.

If you believe that a price multiple applies to ARB, then at the current P/E, it's not expensive, but more importantly, it's cheap compared to the other crypto miners (RIOT, MARA, HUT 8, etc). On a 12m rolling basis, RIOT is priced on a 22 multiple, while ARB is at 11.3 (these figures are from Stockopedia). Actually, I don't take this figure too seriously as I don't see P/E being a relevant figure for these companies. It's supported purely by sentiment for crypto.

I tend to agree with your statement on the number of capital raises required. That also applies to the other miners. Have a look at the 'Average Shares' figure for RIOT and you'll get what I mean - it's rising exponentially!

Also take a look at the average holding time for shares in BTC miners. That will give you an idea of who is buying these shares. The vast majority are bought by day traders, who don't hang around on chat rooms. Once ARB is listed on NASDAQ, I expect the trading volume to increase significantly within a few months and propel the share price upwards with it - as long as BTC rises.

That's just my view. It might be totally wrong. I'm long ARB and most of the BTC miners.

@Reb438: "Shein IPO rumours valuing company at 47bn."

As I've said a few times. I am not at all worried about Shein.

It is both illegal and impossible for a non-Chinese person to own equity in a Chinese company. When a non-Chinese person 'buys' shares in a Chinese company, what they are really buying is shares in a shell company with the same name as the original company, but which has NO actual equity ownership or connection with the real company......... that is why so many fund managers are dumping 'Chinese shares'. Investment bankers have created nothing more than an illusion. Do your own research if you intend to buy shares in the Shein IPO. It is quite likely that you will end up owning absolutely nothing. You will NOT have any ownership whatsoever in Shein. You will own shares in a company registered in the Cayman islands or some other offshore jurisdiction. And the Chinese government can sever all connections with the real company at their will, because they consider it illegal......

On the other hand, look at the *real* market cap of ASOS, just £3b. It's an incredible bargain.

The official broker target (average of 24 broker estimates) is now 90% above the current price!

I thought it was great.
I added.
I'm primarily here for Dundas, but to think of the quality of the other assets is mind blowing.
I'll add again on any weakness from the lemmings.

I'm hoping that the company will provide us all with a diving bell to view our holdings...

Impossible to say.
Based on technicals, probably not, though RSI at least now looks attractive, at ~19 and I'm cautiosly building my position irrespective.

@NoFear: Geez, the shorts here are tiny. It's just 0.5% ! I'm not worried about Marshall Wace and their shorts...

The fundamentals of CPI are now good enough to bring in even the conservative Value Investors, with Stockopedia StockRank of 82 and rising, Value of 94.

It's going to be a great long-term investment and also a great trading share if that's your thing.

Good luck!

"I do share fears that both Boohoo and ASOS could be in for a weak spell. And I could see both share prices going nowhere in the short term, or even falling further."

I love how these geniuses always jump in and make their 'prediction' once they've seen a drop of 20%. These guys make astrology look respectable.

I'm not concerned about Shein. They could even be banned here, like in India.
This drop is an overreaction and/or manipulation and/or selling by lemmings. I don't worry what lemmings do either...

@Directive: I agree, it's definitely not worth it to trade 1 or 2 percent. At least not for me. On many occasions, it's definitely been more profitable to repeatedly trade the 10% moves though. I could give you a long list of stocks where holding over the past year has produced nothing, while trading 10% or 20% moves has really added up. The same is even true of the FTSE. Buying it and holding very long term has produced almost nothing over 20 years, apart from a few dividends.

Regarding annualised rate of return being the same. It depends on how choppy the market is. Think of a stock that moves in a range of 10% for a very long time. There are stocks like that, but I'm not going to mention them...you can make substantially more by continually trading the range, but often nothing at all by holding on long-term. This is why the algos are happy to take tiny percentages a huge number of times. It all depends on your fees and setup. At the end of the day, the only thing that matters is the annualised growth rate of your account.