Member Info for CaneToad

Is anybody here able to comment on the differences between the extraction process to be used at Salt End vs Rainbow's 'continuous ion exchange / continuous ion chromatography' to be used on the gypsum stacks?

I appreciate that the form of the REs is totally different at these two mines, but it seems to me that with Rainbow also able to extract the REs themselves, this has some relevance in terms of the market caps of the two companies.

(Disclaimer: I'm invested in both Rainbow and Pensana and am positive about both as long-term investments.)

Looking good. I also added yesterday. As I've mentioned a few times, this is likely to be the best state the company has ever been in, but the share priced was in the reverse situation.

Interesting to see where this goes from here. I thought it looked like a great place to enter on a technical basis, with a very nice dividend if it sits doing nothing. Now looking like capital appreciation is also on the cards!

@Metalhead: "Canetoad - I can’t see that the raise described would halve the share price. It would nearly double the shares in issue but the cash paid would also nearly double the company’s valuation, so should be SP neutral unless done at a big discount?"

My mistake, I misread the $ for a £. Clearly it's also going to depend on what price they do the raise.

We'll have to see what the market thinks re: dilution of the share price.

Ordinarily, if a company worth £100 has 100 shares (share price = £1) and did a share placement for £100 to buy an identical business, the new business would be worth £200 and have 200 shares, hence the share price wouldn't change. In the case of Pensana, it's a bit different. They'd be raising cash for capex, which doesn't have the same value as an operating business. i.e. if the company had to immediately liquidate that equipment, it might be worth half the price they paid. For that reason, I'd expect a raise like this to be dilutive. There are too many unknowns here to make any reliable estimate of the dilution, if any.

As I mentioned a few months ago, there was a lot of FOMO in the 200p price rise. As I mentioned (to much abuse), the market cap at that time did not make sense when compared to companies such as Rainbow and Bluejay.

@Joe: OK, thanks. I've been hanging back and keeping my position small, to scale-up after genuine news, rather than FOMO.

@Joe666: "The remainder, approx $100 - $150 usd is expeted to come from an institutional equity raise. "

Are you able to direct me to anything (RNS/website material/news article) where it talks about the size of the raise? At the current valuation, that capital raise would obviously halve the share price. I expect that it made more sense when the share price was at 200p.

@Know0: "Any ideas / theories about breaking under 46p or over 52p??"

The fundamentals are improving (Stockopedia StockRank has now risen to 88), which is likely to bring in more PIs / IIs.

On the other hand, we need sentiment to improve or at least not deteriorate. I'm itching to increase my position size again (I've been in and out many times over the past couple of weeks), but I'm wary of the US market. I'll add another chunk if it dips to ~47p for a tactical trade as I think this is now a great trade or long-term hold.

Personally, I thought the offered price was a bit crappy and I sold my SGC shares today. I'd actually stayed away from NEX, because I thought their balance sheet was a bit wobbly, so it was a surprise they're grabbing SGC as well.

I've just doubled my GOG position though. I like the potential upside from this level. I traded this one many times last year and earlier this year and was amazed to see it retrace back to where I joined it. One more attractive thing here is that GOG was stable yesterday after the US wobbles.

Fingers crossed for the momentum here. Hoping that was the bottom.

According to Stockopedia, the update in on Monday 27'th Sept. Has it changed?

It's interesting to compare ATYM to CAML.

Both have roughly the same market cap, but ATYM makes about twice the revenue/net profit as CAML; P/E is about half. Obviously CAML has a premium due to the chunky dividend, but that's a heck of a premium.

(Disclaimer: I hold both CAML and ATYM)

Broker ratings are now:

Buy: 1
Strong Buy: 3
Price Target: €5.47 (52.76% above Price)
P/E (12 forecast) sitting at 3.6

With some luck they'll declare a divi and finally ignite this share.

@MrCarats: "The broader markets are only going one way now and that will impact Petras decline."

I disagree. In my experience, this has been relatively robust on days when the US markets are heavily down. I also see limited risk vs reward at the current level and would look to add if it dropped significantly. I agree that it's excruciatingly annoying to hold, but I see it coming good overf the coming months.

The current ratings are:

Hold: 5
Strong Buy: 4
Price Target: 1,383.33p (53.70% above Price)

With 9 price estimates, giving an average 50% upside, that looks OK to me. I'm not sure about the Barclays rating. I tend to ignore the individual ratings once there are this many.

Added more. Fundamentals looking solid in Stockopedia. StockRank: 89. Looks like a nice recovery story.

I guess the only alternative is to hold the NEX shares.

That is a terribly low price.

It means that a lot of people who bought in over the past few months will get considerably less than what they paid. i.e. they'll sell at a loss. I'd be marginally in profit, but it's not exactly great.

Poor deal.

To be fair, I'm pretty sure that PERE would have already folded without Gati. The only reason that I have any holding at all is because of him. With some luck, he's going to pull a rabbit out of the hat and I'll add more. My own holding will stay small until some clarity appears.

Also, miners are being hammered at the moment. Even the Blue-chip ones are suffereing. It's therefore going to be interesting to see what happens with the IPO. Maybe a delay is the smartest thing.

Happy to have bought in today. First time I've invested in Superdry.

@Astro: my PRE average is 106. I'll add a decent chunk to lower it once the drops slow down. I think I said that this would go into the 60's a month or so back and I've not changed my opinion yet. It all depends on news flow.

FYI: I'm also heavily underwater on CEY and have a large'ish position on that one. That's the life of a mining investor!

In my experience, you need to scale-in to this type of stock to reduce the chance of big problems. You also need to totally ignore any 'advice' from these boards. Everybody here has an agenda.

That's why I find impartial/high quality data as found in Stockopedia - they have no agenda. The discussions on Stocko are also of a high quality and nobody insults anybody.

Good luck.